@zeldaring For the record, your prediction doesn't look that bad if you weren't so tight on your range. A two million range seems too tight to me, I think your prediction looks fine if you instead said 20 to 25 million. Still lower than probably most predictions but several predictions in here were based on 2D Mario past performance. So of course people would get swept up in the hype and go optimistic. I wasn't calling out your prediction, I was calling out Potent trying defend you while also throwing you under bus, the dude literally called your prediction pestimistic and admits completly disagreeing with it. Potent is literally using optismitc predictions by random people on the internet to determine Mario underperforming, a franchise wellknown for it legs. There are examples of Mario games selling more annually as time pass such as Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. Not having a 20 million opening doesn't make it an underperformance but Potent is only doing that to play victim for Spiderman and downplay Mario. Spiderman is a victim because some people predicted it would be outsold by Mario in its first quarter, but never mentioning how several people predicted Spiderman over Mario. Potent was only focused on trying to downplay Mario all because it will likely sell more than Spiderman. Potent predicting Mario to win means nothing, hes a Sony fan that deep down wanted it the other way around but knew that wouldn't happen so instead what people like him do is grossly raise the goal for anything related to Nintendo so they can turnaround and tell us it actually underperformed. That's all I did, point out what this warrior was doing. I wasn't trying to pile on your prediction, I think you will be wrong but it doesn't look very egregious if you simply loosened your range.

There are none, which makes it weird that this thread keeps getting bumped and people claiming they were right or that one is underperforming. We will get official numbers for Mario on Feb 6 when Nintendo has their quarterly update. Sony’s quarterly results are Feb 14 but I’m not sure if they typically give shipment numbers for individual titles.

The majority of this thread expected Mario Wonder to win. SpiderMan 2 winning this would be an absolutely shocking result. That's why my post was centered on Mario. UnderwaterFunktown and Zeldaring are the only users I can see pull for SpiderMan in the first ten pages of this thread. Norion and VAMatt could also be leaning towards SM2 if you want to be real generous. So who else am I missing? You make it seem like I'm omitting a handful of users. So name them. And tell me why ignoring those users choosing SpiderMan 2, who didn't have a prediction nearly as egregious as a few other posts, should be centerfold? What about their posts do you want me to dunk on? The blasphemy that they had the nerve to think SpiderMan 2 would win this prediction? You can't find a single post in here worse than predicting Wonder will outsell SpiderMan 2's lifetime in a single quarter. 

Saying something underperformed relative to the thread is not the same as thinking it underperformed overall. It's like when everyone was predicting SpiderMan 2 first week, and a lot of us overshot it, myself included. Doesn't mean it had a bad first week, but it does show we overestimated it by some margin. Same with the NPD prediction threads. Or with yearly hardware sales. How is this thread any different? Obviously, both games are extremely successful, but it doesn't mean users on this site didn't overestimate its opening week/quarter. It happens. The point is, I'm not using this thread to judge underperformance, I'm judging some of the posts that aged like milk lol. Which there is quite a few that I'm sure you somehow missed.

And please, if you aren't going to have this same energy if Sony misses their 25M FY projection, I don't want to hear it. I had one, if not the highest prediction for Mario Wonder, so I guess you think I'm downplaying because I didn't predict 800M lifetime? Is that why you're so worked up? Like, you keep mentioning Mario outselling SpiderMan, acting like I had a different prediction lol. Are you delusional? Look in the mirror before you call other people fanboys. 

This is all you had to say, I went after your post because it came off as you trying to dunk on Mario about underperforming according to the most optimistic predictions. I continue to say I don't care about your prediction, not sure why you mention predicting 800 million. I never cared about what anyone predicted, you literally made a post acting like everyone expected Mario to do crazy numbers and then said it was underperforming because of those predictions. The bolded would have easily cleared that all up, also nothing stopping you from pointing out all those egregious Mario predictions just like zeldaring was called out for his pestimistic take. Since you want to call them out, why not do it? That was the point of your post, so why not call them out? You mentioned only 4 people predicted Spiderman and even name them. Now name the ones that had the egregious Mario predictions.

I'm being a little overdramatic about that 800M figure. 

Also, I don't like to specifically call people out, since this is a prediction thread and we all get something wrong every now and then, but in an attempt to have more level headed discourse... looking through the first ten pages, we had zorg1000 predicting 40M+ lifetime for Wonder, we have Slowenberg predicting SpiderMan 2 would sell less than 20M on just the PS5, and then doubling/tripling down a few pages after with even bolder claims, we have Qwark saying saying SpiderMan 2 won't outsell the original because Miles Morales didn't, implying a major underperformance for SM2, we have a long time user in Rol predicting 20M+ for Wonder just in 2023, we got Cassiel who predicted Wonder to sell 2x -3x as much just on the Switch, and users like KLXVER saying Wonder would win by a lot. 

The rest of the thread predicts Wonder to win. But like I said, those who predicted SpiderMan 2 to win this comp, didn't have bold predictions or expected lofty margins. Even the few that gave SpiderMan 2 a chance to win this were still 50/50 with the outcome. 

Looking at the weekly sales chart is useless lets just wait for official numbers because  zelda did 18 million in 3 months and did not have the holidays and nintendo games sell physical heavy in the holidays so we will need official numbers, i expect mario wonder did not even break 10 million yet.

Bro, it sold 5 million in October, you don’t think it sold a further 5 million in Nov+Dec+Jan?

wasn't it 4.1 mllion in 2 weeks. so in november and December i expect another 5 million not counting jan cause the quarterly won't be counting that i think. I expect total to be around 9.1 million.  

I just looked, we were both wrong. It did 4.3 million, seems quite conservative to me but we will find out next week.

Are we counting bundles or not? the better questing probably is: Does Nintendo and Sony sound bundles in their game shipments? If so I think this gives an advantage to Spiderman.