I mean you're just constantly complaining and taking jabs at Sony/Playstation and its fans and I didn't notice you doing anything remotely similar against other fanbases or active Playstation haters, let alone weirdos from the past lol. You seem very invested in the whole Nintendo vs Sony thing. You couldn't even acknowledge that prices and pricedrops matter (because it makes the expensive PS5 look good), you may as well give Nintendo a call and inform them that they would be 100% fine with an $600 Switch 2 and that it won't need any pricedrops.

Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft and Valve are each doing what works for them. Nintendo are self-sufficient kings. Microsoft is still trying to find its new place and will settle soon enough, they are comfortably the biggest console/PC publisher (only rivaled indirectly by Tencent when mobile gaming is accounted for), they got the best gaming rental service, and it won't matter that their next Xbox is reduced to a small console because it's a tiny part of their new ecosystem.

But of course anything can happen and the unexpected is guaranteed. Phil Spencer could get replaced with someone who wants to make Xbox hardware/platform relevant again. Sony might pull a PS3 and make the worst decisions imaginable. Nintendo may be forced to launch an expensive Switch 2 because Nvidia is being a bitch again. A price-dropped Switch 1 with decent crossgen support could hurt an expensive Switch's 2 early years. The possibilities are endless, but provided nothing crazy happens, all major players should be fine.

Edit: The biggest gaming entity could still be Tencent even when mobile gaming isn't considered. It's difficult to make comparisons when everyone is doing their own thing.

Nothing of what you said has anything to do with the PS6 being a successful or not.

I agree with everything you say. If you read my posts i charge every gaming system by what it is not by its publisher. Like i said the WiiU was dead from the day it was unveiled. A simple provokation against its most loyal fans! I never understood the critics in the Gamecube because it had everything going for it: More powerfull than PS2, a good libary of games, Resident Evil exclusive (despite the betray of Part 4), MK and the tipical games... yet people hated it. The old Xbox was the most powerfull one but it was too expensive for that time. Talking about that, yes price drops might help a bit but not in a way that places in a generation would be changed. If so, the Gamecube should have been the absolute Nr.1 in gen 6 but we know how it ended. There where enough talks in gen 7 how PS3 would rush over the Wii when it gets cut in price. In europe it got as low as 189€, yet it did not pass the Wii WW. Yes price cuts can help keeping a decline more stable but it won't make your consoles sales skyrocket. A 99€ Gamecube (PS2/Xbox 299€) did not set the world on fire as well as a 99€ Street PSP (DS 149€). You see i do critizise other companies as well. One of the companies i critizise the most are EA because they release the same game with basically no changes (expect a next gen arrives) every year. I am talking about Football FC (former Fifa). In europe its some sort of pandemic, also Fartnite (no matter wich plattform).

120-125m

If PS5 does more than 130m I will be absolutely shocked. I can't see a "No lighting in bottle" buff consoles selling past 130.

The PS6' sucess depends on so many things. First of all its hardware. Will it be a revolutionary console technological or will it be a smaller leap to its predecessor like gen 8 was to gen 7? How will be Switch 2s marketposition? Will Xbox have a new president that makes it great again (chances are low but you never know). The price is not so important today. PS diehards and collectors like me would also pay 1000€/$. But we know it won't be that expensive. Will it be a console or will it be a hybrid. The latter basically guarantees it to be 100% digital. Will it have a DD? If no you can loose a tiny part of the PS fanbase but like we saw, 70%+ are already on the digital train right now. I guess it will be 80%+ when PS6 hits in 2027. Its questionable if it makes sense upping an already high price for a part (disc drive) only ~20% or even less want. Yes you could argue selling it seperatly but if you include the technology for it, make retail games (package, shipment, taxes, less revenue...) does it pay off? How would the rest of the ~80%+ PS6 buyers react when they learn they need to pay extra money for something they don't use, especially since Sony discontinued BD production, they have to buy their discs from someone else. Discontinuing the format your games are saved on is not the way to convince your fans that physical is something you can rely on. This again would influence game prices wich already suffer from inflation. Are you ready to pay european SNES/N64 prices (100€+) for a PS6 game only because its physical? It won't be cheaper digital because Sony could cause an outrage from physical buyers and complains they would prioritize digital and want to make physical more unatractive than they made it already. I personally think they go the easy route by just make it clear and simple so no one feels fooled: Want to stay physical? PS5(Pro) will still have physical for the next years. You want PS6? You need to go with the times...

As with pretty much everything in "life" and not just gaming, it's never about a single factor. And this takes us back to when I asked why you thought a 2028 launch would be suicidal for PS6. Dreamcast launched with a 16 month headstart against the PS2, it had great graphics for its time and a strong library of games and yet the PS2 buried it and ended Sega's hardware business. Headstart/timing (like pricing, exclusives, 3rd party support, services, specs and features, form factor, marketing, and brand power) is important... but it's just one factor in a complex equation. So by itself, a headstart doesn't tell us anything. The same goes for "pricing", but PS5 is a confirmed sales monster, so we already know that most factors are fulfilled and only price and exclusives (relative to past generations) are holding it back. You can make the price argument for the Switch as well, it is available at a very cheap $200, but the more popular version still has room for effective pricecuts even 8 years after launch.

I can see why you think it's "risky" to launch the PS6 in 2028. Sony itself might freak out and rush the PS6 to contain any potential threat. But unless Microsoft reverses everything they've been saying and doing for a while, a 2026 Xbox launch shouldn't really be a threat, let alone kill a 2028 PS6. Playstation and Xbox are no longer comparable. If Sony doesn't mind letting Nintendo have a 2, 3 or 4 year "headstart", they shouldn't worry about Xbox having a 1-2 year headstart either. Something dramatic has to happen for Xbox to truly be a threat. Microsoft doesn't seem interested in competing with Sony anymore. They're more interested in using Playstation's popularity to maximize software sales, and this is becoming clearer on the daily.

I think the delay of PS6 is likely due to the fact we need to wait more time to have some significant ugprade in tecnologgy to justify a purchase of a new console

I honestly think it should be 2029, but 2029 is too late and the sales would be too dead to justify a 2029 release, so 2028 it is

As for Lifetime sales, at the start of the new generation I thought PS5 would be smaller than PS4 because of rise of PC, but the cost of GPUs became pretty insane. An equivalent to PS5 Pro like a RTX 4070 is costing 650 USD+

I think outselling is PS4 is 90% certainly if they release PS5 in 2028, and 50% certain if they release in 2027

Scary to even speculate about how expensive the PS6 will be, but Sony will take away from PS5 generation that they now have such a big brand that they can just put the price as high as possible and people will still just rush to buy it, they don't need to care about an affordable price point like Nintendo.

Yeah, now you're making more sense, because bringing up their past failures to downplay a console that we know nothing about is... lol.

To respond your points, Sony not ending all Blu-ray production, only rewrittable ones, so that has nothing to do with games, movies or the PS6 having a disc drive or not.

And I do believe the PS6 will still play physical games, but it's probably going to be the last PlayStation that can do it. With how big digital is becoming even if the PS6 is digital only I don't think it's going to matter much.

Me personally I'll just stop buying PS consoles once they become digital only and I'm going to build a PC. But that's just me.

I have a pretty big PS4 library, so my PS5 is not only to play PS5 games but PS4 games as well. I will delay my PS6 purchase as much as possible. There is no Sony exclusives I can think it's an instant buy for me, I only want to play their single player games and I can honestly wait for a few years to play them

But having ability to play old library is one reason to purchase. I think PS6 will be able to run your PS4 library too, even if it's just emulation. If this is the case I can replace my PS5 for a PS6 granted they don't sell it for any crazy prices