the-pi-guy said:
Democrats seem like they're on fire. I've never seen them so successfully put their best foot forward. And I'm blown away how quickly they pulled it together after Biden dropped. I wasn't even sure they could put together a good campaign. I would have bet the farm against them. Tim Walz seems like an incredible candidate, and it's kind of wild that one of the attacks was that he was a veteran... It's almost bizarre. We've gone from Donald Trump openly bragging that he could shoot someone and not lose support, to really feeling like they're campaigning defensively. JD Vance by himself seems like a huge gift to Democrats. He's like the perfect candidate to show off how weird Republicans have gotten. |
American presidential races have been person-driven for a long time now, with policies taking a very distant second. That's why the messenger matters so much.
Biden was a liability because the attack angle of him being too old to do the job for another four years was 100% true. If one true thing is being said, then the probability that the other things being said can be perceived as true rises greatly, especially when it's in conjunction with the Dems denying the obvious truth about Biden's age problem. That made the Dems a lot less believable on everything else they said.
Biden dropping out of the race is only a single change in everything the Dems did, but it changes everything else tremendously. Now the Reps are struggling to find the necessary piece of truth they need at the core of their messaging, so everything else in their rhetoric is collapsing because it's suddenly recognized as the hogwash that it is. The Dems in turn are perceived as credible again, because they finally acknowledged that Biden was too old, a fact that was obvious to even the most casual observer of politics.
But not all is lost for the Reps yet. They may have lost the battle for style now, but they can still fall back on the substance of their campaign to turn things around. The core of that is Project 2025 and...
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The Reps are cooked. The momentum is already all with the Dems and they still have their national convention ahead of them which will give them another boost in the polling. In a month's time it will likely not even look like a contested race anymore.
All that still leaves one big problem though. The Reps have been preparing to commit election fraud. When Trump talks about not needing votes anymore, because he already has so many, something is up. I don't think he is talking about real votes there, especially because the Reps have already planted people in various states to meddle with the results. I wouldn't be surprised if some counties end up having more ballots than eligible voters living there.
So I don't think getting enough support from the people of America will be a problem for the Dems, but the looming danger of fraud will be the one big obstacle come November.
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