An "analyst", who has been commenting a lot on the Activision Blizzard deal. 

They started tweeting doxxing threats against the ResetEra user who started the Activision Blizzard thread.

No kidding. He and Idas have been regularly updating everyone on the deal, then out of nowhere he’s got some weird beef lol. 

The deal is.... still dead.

He's a fucking weirdo is what he is.

Honestly his behaviour is actually concerning and I don't mean that as an insult but that dude is legit worrying me, his obsession with Idas is fucking weird, it started as a weird once a month attack at someone he doesn't know then became once a week now it feels daily and his attempts to dox him. His behaviour is really unhinged shit.

It's very obvious that Florian is jealous of the attention that Idas receives as Florian wants to be the #1 source on this merger.

Idas has been a great source of information throughout the entire merger and helped me to understand things in more simpler terms, his insights have been appreciated by people like Tom Warren even. Florian for some odd reason is acting like Idas is a sleeper Sony agent against the merger when I'm pretty sure sure that Idas in the past has said he's in favour of the merger and on the law level thinks it should have been approved.

Florian as far as I'm aware is a patent dude as well so he should also stop acting like he knows everything about regulator law. Just recently he created a witch hunt against someone who works for the CMA who used to work for a law firm which represented Sony (something like that) but this woman wasn't even on the Activision-Blizzard case.

It also ignores that regulators hire people like this all of the time, Lol. IIRC EC is hiring a former Microsoft employee in a significant role.

I love Xbox, I'm not a huge Microsoft fan overall, but Florian is so obviously too emotionally invested in this case, he's obviously a massive Microsoft fanboy and the shit he accuses the CMA of doing (someone working at the CMA who isn't on the ABK case but used to work for a law firm which represented Sony) he himself is guilty of (listing Microsoft as one of his clients) but apparently he can't be biased about the case?

I'll continue posting Idas because he's been great, I'm not going to go all Karen and phone the police on Idas "breaking the law" on copy and pasting paid articles, I don't know Idas but Idas has not once attacked Florian so this behaviour from Florian is really quite disgusting in my personal opinion. Now imagine if Florian browses VGChartz and he writes up a storm about us on his Twitter

More on Korea's Decision

Microsoft's Gaming Market Share in Each Region (Korea Fair Trade Commission)

Microsoft's Market Share of Console Gaming Services

*Korea: 5-10%
*Japan: 0-5%
*UK: 40-45%
*US: 40-45%
*EU: 15-20%
*Global average: 30-35%

Microsoft's Market Share of Cloud Gaming Services

*Korea: 60-70%
*Japan: 5-10%
*UK: 60-70%
*US: undisclosed
*EU: undisclosed
*Global average: 50-55%

Microsoft's share is high in Korea because Amazon and Sony haven't yet entered the Korean Cloud Market. The Korean market share has changed dynamically over the past 3 years: #1 in 2020 was Microsoft, #1 in 2021 was Nvidia, #1 in 2022 was Microsoft.

Cloud gaming in UK and South Korea seems to have the same market share. It would be interesting to know how the KFTC calculated it. And the first time that we have heard about the global average for cloud gaming from MS.

Source: Idas & Xbox News for Korean Twitter

Went over the Korean FTC's decision.

These are some of the main points that got concluded quite differently from CMA's argument. (Original Korean words followed by translations)

Unlike many other countries that use "Activision" as a shorthand for "Activision-Blizzard Inc", the KFTC refers to the company as "Blizzard". Therefore, in this document, "Blizzard" means the entire "ABK". Some of the arguments presented here may be specific to the Korean domestic market, while many still have broader global implications.

• 오히려 본 건 결합으로 콘솔 시장의 3위 사업자인 MS의 경쟁력이 강화되면 콘솔 시장의 경쟁이 촉진될 가능성도 존재한다
  • On the contrary, the merger may promote competition in the console market by strengthening the competitive position of MS as the third largest player in the console market.
    
• (봉쇄능력) MS와 블리자드가 개발·배급하는 클라우드 게임의 합산점유율(4~6%)이 낮고, 블리자드 외에도 다수의 배급사들이 인기 게임들을 공급*하고 있어 대체공급선도 충분하므로 봉쇄능력이 없다고 보았다. * 스마일게이트(로스트아크), 텐센트(리그오브레전드), EA(배틀필드) 등
  • (Lock-in capability) The combined market share of cloud games developed and distributed by MS and Blizzard is low (4-6%), and there are many publishers besides Blizzard supplying popular games*, so there are enough alternative supply lines, so there is no lock-in capability.
    * Smilegate (Lost Ark), Tencent (League of Legends), EA (Battlefield), etc.
• (봉쇄유인) 현재 블리자드 게임은 모든 클라우드 게임 서비스에 제공되지 않고 있어 봉쇄 유인을 계량적으로 판단하기는 어렵다. - 다만 경쟁사인 엔비디아의 사업모델상 엔비디아에 블리자드 게임을공급(스트리밍 라이선스 부여)할 경우, 해당 게임의 다운로드 판매 매출도함께 증가하므로 봉쇄 유인이 작아지는 측면이 있다. * 엔비디아의 사업모델은 BYOG(Bring-your-own-game) 방식으로, 이용자들은 원하는게임을 별도로 구매(예: 스팀에서 블리자드 게임 구매)하여 다운로드 방식으로 즐길 수 있고, 엔비디아의 클라우드 게임 서비스에 가입(월정액)하면 보유한 게임을 스트리밍방식으로도 즐길 수 있게 되므로 블리자드와 엔비디아의 매출 증가가 상호 상승 작용.
  • (Lock-in incentives) It is difficult to quantify lock-in incentives because Blizzard games are not currently available on all cloud gaming services. - However, given the business model of competitor Nvidia, the incentive to lock-in is reduced by the fact that supplying Blizzard games to Nvidia (licensing them for streaming) increases the revenue from download sales of those games.
    Nvidia's business model is BYOG (bring-your-own-game), which means that users can purchase the games they want separately (e.g., buy Blizzard games on Steam) and enjoy them as downloads, and if they subscribe to Nvidia's cloud gaming service (for a monthly fee), they can enjoy their games as streams, so the increase in revenue for Blizzard and Nvidia is mutually reinforcing.
• 아울러 클라우드 게임 서비스는 초기 단계*이고, 국내 시장에서 사업자 순위가 매년 뒤바뀌는* 등 역동적으로 변화하고 있으며, 향후 진입가능한 사업자(소니, 아마존 등)도 존재하여, 본 건 기업결합으로 인한 경쟁제한 우려도 작다. *국내 클라우드 게임 서비스 시장규모는 전체 게임 시장의 0.02% 수준
  * 최근 3년간 1위 사업자 추이: MS('20년) → 엔비디아('21년) → MS('2년)
  
  • In addition, cloud game services are in their early stages*, the domestic market is changing dynamically, with the ranking of providers changing every year*, and there are possible future entrants (Sony, Amazon, etc.), so there is little concern that the merger will restrict competition. * Domestic cloud game service market size is 0.02% of the total game market * The trend of the number one provider in the last three years: MS ('20) → Nvidia ('21) → MS ('22)
• 엔비디아 클라우드 게임(GeForceNow)은 PC전용 게임을 서비스할 수 있어, 이용자가기존에 스팀 등 PC게임 상점에서 구매한 게임들도 활용할 수 있다는 강점이 존재→ 실제로 PC용 인기 게임인 로스트아크가 엔비디아 클라우드 게임 서비스로 출시되자 국내 유료 가입자가 크게 증가하는 현상이 나타남
  • NVIDIA Cloud Games (GeForceNow) has the advantage of being able to serve PC-only games, allowing users to utilize games previously purchased from PC game stores such as Steam → In fact, when the popular PC game Lost Ark was released on NVIDIA Cloud Games, the number of domestic paid subscribers increased significantly.
    
• 공정위는 MS가 클라우드 인프라(Azure), 서버 OS(윈도우) 보유 등 클라우드 게임 시장에서 다수의 경쟁력 있는 생산요소를 보유하고있으나, 이는 결합 이전부터 보유한 특성으로, 본 건 결합으로 발생한 특유의 효과라고 판단하지 않았다.
  • The KFTC found that MS possesses a number of competitive production factors in the cloud gaming market, including cloud infrastructure (Azure) and server OS (Windows), but these are characteristics that it possessed prior to the merger and are not unique effects of the merger.
• PC OS 시장에서 MS 윈도우는 높은 점유율([70~80]%)을 보유하고 있고, 게이밍 PC로 한정 시 윈도우 점유율은 더욱 높은 것*으로 예상된다. 그러나 공정위는 본 건 결합이 없더라도 블리자드가 非윈도우 OS용 게임을 개발할 가능성은 극히 미미하다고 판단하였다. 윈도우가 지배적 OS이고 경쟁 OS는 이용자층이 넓지 않아 게임 개발사로서는 타OS로 게임을 발매할 유인이 적기 때문이며, 이에 따라블리자드도 최근 10년 간 주요 PC 게임을 윈도우OS로만 발매하고 있다.
  • MS Windows has a high market share ([70-80%]) in the PC OS market, and its share is expected to be even higher* when limited to gaming PCs. However, the FTC found that even without the combination, the likelihood that Blizzard would develop games for non-Windows OSes was extremely small. This is because Windows is the dominant OS and competing OSes do not have a large user base, so game developers have little incentive to release their games on other OSes, which is why Blizzard has only released major PC games on Windows OS for the past 10 years.
• 타OS로 게임을 추가로 발매하기 위해서는 개발 시간 및 비용, 운영비용(품질보증, 이용자 지원 등)이 추가 소요되나, 이용자가 적으면 수익은 제한적
  • Releasing additional games on other OSes requires additional development time, costs, and operational costs (quality assurance, user support, etc.), but the revenue is limited if there are few users.
    
• 따라서 향후 블리자드 윈도우 외의 OS로 게임을 개발하지 않더라도, 이는 기업결합으로 인한 경쟁제한 효과라 보기 어렵고, 현재도 윈도우용 게임만 제공하는 만큼 기업결합 후 PC OS 시장에서 MS 윈도우의 지배력이 추가로 강화되는 것도 아니라고 보았다.
  • Therefore, even if Blizzard does not develop games for OSes other than Windows in the future, this is unlikely to be a restrictive effect of the merger, and it is unlikely that the merger will further strengthen the dominance of MS Windows in the PC OS market as it currently only offers games for Windows.

Source: Kyler (I'm Trusting This User on Translations...)

New report from MLex with more details about the KFTC decision:

- KFTC's Im Kyeong-hwan said during a background briefing with reporters that: "There might be criticism that we have taken a lenient approach to the merger involving a Big Tech company, especially as some global regulators like those in the EU or the US, have raised issues about the deal". "But we'd like to highlight that we have carefully scrutinized the impact it might have on the competitive landscape within our local markets and made our assessments accordingly."

- The regulator's review primarily focused on the potential for competition to be stifled in console and cloud gaming services, to see if MS could choose to supply Blizzard's popular games exclusively to its own platforms. The review concluded that the likelihood of Microsoft implementing such a strategy is small, and, even if Microsoft were to do so, the chances of other competitors being pushed out of the markets are low due to the combined market shares of their games being relatively small and the presence of other game developers with a variety of popular titles.

- The KFTC did not express any concerns about the potential for Microsoft to obstruct competition by blocking access to Blizzard games on Sony's PlayStation because the combined market share is very small, at most 2 percent, Blizzard's comparatively lower game popularity in South Korea and the robust alternative sources of supply available to Sony.

- Call of Duty's market share is less than 2 percent in South Korea, while it's up to 8 percent globally.

- While the KFTC expressed uncertainty about Microsoft's potential incentives for limiting the Blizzard games on PlayStation, pointing out to the company's move to restrict access to certain titles from Zenimax, as a long-strategy, they didn't find any no clear short-term monetary benefits.

- The market shares, based on game sales in 2021, are PlayStation with 70 to 80 percent, Nintendo with 10 to 20 percent, and Xbox with 0 to 10 percent.

- The KFTC noted that if Microsoft's competitiveness increases as a result of the merger, it could paradoxically enhance competition within the console gaming market.

- The KFTC differed from its UK and EU counterparts regarding cloud gaming, determining that the deal's vertical integration of cloud gaming distribution and services markets does not pose a competitive threat by restricting Nvidia and other competitors' access to Blizzard games.

- The KFTC pointed out that Microsoft and Blizzard's combined share of the cloud gaming market is small, sitting between 4 to 6 percent, and there are numerous other distributors, including Smilegate, Tencent and EA, providing popular titles like Lost Ark, League of Legends or Battlefield.

- In South Korea the popularity of console games is eclipsed by PC games, which limits Microsoft's ability to block competition, given that it delivers only console games, not PC games, via cloud. The regulator said even if Microsoft were to provide Blizzard games, to Nvidia via a streaming license, it would likely boost the revenue from game downloads, reducing Microsoft's incentive to block access.

- The KFTC also underlined that while it's true that Microsoft commands a significant market share in cloud gaming, 60 to 70 percent, and that there's a notable entry barrier in the cloud gaming services market, the popularity of Blizzard games, again, is not overwhelming, and considering the domestic preference for PC games over consoles, Nvidia could potentially have a brighter future since it provides existing PC games via cloud.

- The KFTC said that the cloud gaming service market is still nascent, with the leading businesses shifting annually: Microsoft in 2020 and 2022, and Nvidia in 2021. The market currently represents just 0.02 percent of the total gaming market (in South Korea, I guess), and with potential future entrants like Sony and Amazon, the competition isn't likely to be stifled.

_____________

So far, 5 regulators have reviewed the cloud gaming market:

- EC (Europe): concerned about it but too small and nascent; behavioural remedies are enough.

- FTC (US): concerned about it, nascent but it will become a reality soon; behavioural remedies are not enough.

- CMA (UK): concerned about it, nascent but will become a reality in 5 years, behavioural remedies are not enough.

- JFTC (Japan): not concerned about it, nascent market, hard to measure, too small right now.

- KFTC (South Korea): not concerned about it, nascent market, too small right now.

Next ones should be Canada, New Zealand and Australia :P

Source: Idas

China Official Announcement

ABK stuff...cool

The more I read, the more it seems like the the CMA’s decision was a politically motivated stunt to attempt to assert relevancy for the UK as a regulatory player rather than a clearheaded decision based on the facts. It seems wildly unfair that this will end up likely killing the deal anyway.

Only 24% decrease for 343? Gotta pump those numbers up, Papa Phil.

Anyone else try the stress test for the Texas Chainsaw Massacre game? The game is actually quite fun. GamePass getting another gem in August.