They won't sell out..production is increasing. Reggie said in the interview I posted today that production is already over 1 million per month. It will be 1.5 million per month soon. For reference though, the NES (Famicom) was in fact sold out for years in Japan (85' to 87' by most accounts), and for a large portion of 1987-1988 in the USA according to research I've done on the NES.
I don't think Nintendo is being arrogant at all actually. Sony predicted shipping 11 million more PS3s by March 08', Nintendo predicting shipping 14 million Wiis by March 08'. Sony has not even sold 3.5 million PS3s yet, Nintendo had double that 2 weeks ago, and is thus is being very conservative with their shipment forecasts. Wii will pass 1/2 of GC sales in Europe by the end of 2007, and already has in Japan, Wii may even reach 1/2 of GC numbers in the Americas by the end of the year. If you look at 2007 data, Nintendo has accounted for 52% of worldwide hardware sales (for this generation). Estimating 40-45% is pretty conservative, especially given that Microsoft will not have nearly as strong a lineup in 2008 (no Halo or GTA in all likelihood) and that PS3 will still cost hundreds of dollars more than Wii. Regardless of what happens in holiday season 2007 in the USA, Nintendo is probably going to keep making steady inroads against the 360 lead in the USA.
You also have to consider that Wii has outsold 360 every week since it has been out in Europe according to this website. Wii went from 0 marketshare to 30% marketshare in months, and on a week-week basis in 2007 (20 weeks), has outsold 360 by an average of 23,350 per week. By this time next year at the latest, Wii will be significantly (4-5 million+) ahead in Japan, at or ahead of 360 in Europe, and somewhere between less than 2 million behind in the Americas and up to 1 million ahead in the Americas, depending on the holidays. Wii will likely have 40% marketshare worldwide by the end of this year, and be within 5% of that mark off and on throughout the generation. The only question is when/if they get to 40% in the USA - and I think they will - although Microsoft could still beat them in the USA by 1-3 million units sold I think - that year lead is going to end up very important in the USA market.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
