The man is a dreamer Wii will struggle to take 40% of us market. People underestimate the massive boost 360 will get with Halo and GTA4, and the inevitable PS3 price drop and strong software line up in late 07

Celb, The same could be said about under-estimating the effect Nintendo's big games will have as well. All three consoles are liable to have big releases, so this generation is going to be much harder to predict than the last one. Because of that, I'm relying on current numbers to predict future ones, and with current numbers, I think he's not out to lunch.

People underestimate the number of casual gamers that are picking up a Wii, who are not interested in games such as Halo and GtA4, nor the seemingly strong software line up for the PS3. People also underestimate the number of people who are picking up a Wii in addition to their 360/PS3, simply to give it a try.

personally i like the 360 i like the wii i like the ps3... of the 3 i own the wii. the 360- no hd tv to hook it up to (well wife won't let it in the bedroom- plus its 150 more than the wii= buy wii the ps3- no good games -yet- price WAY to high to justify the purchase= no chance until it hits under 300.. IF- big if here- the wii continues to sell about as well as it is right now...40% market share will be assured and 60% would be in reach

360 will not get a massive boost from Halo. They will get a boost, but not too huge. The people that want Halo already have a 360...

But we will know for sure in a few months.

As for the PS3 Sony can't afford to cut the price now. And there are no great games coming out in 07 that will make a difference. So far all the killer games that were going to save the PS3 have failed...

Personally here' the breakdown i see over the long haul. US Wii 38% 360 32% PS3 30% Japan Wii 55% PS3 40% 360 5% Europe + other markets Wii 40% PS3 37% 360 23% Overall (giving slightly more weight to US and Europe than Japan) Wii 42% PS3 35% 360 23% I know my 360 numbers might seem harsh, but I'll believe Microsoft can make significant inroads in the console market when it actually happens. Even if you think 360 and PS3 could be flipped from my world wide projections it doesn't change that Harrison's 40%-45% market share estimates are reasonable. I actually might have gone conservative with the Wii's potential, but I still say no system gets 50% this gen.

ps3 number in japan is......waaaay to optimistic, they are really fucking things up down there.

In america. That's iffy. I see worldwide, but America will probobly be influenced by Halo 3 and GTA4. We'll see I guess.

US, I see the following breakdown: Wii ~50% 360 >30%, PS3

Now Nintendo is taking the place as arrogant leaders overestimating themselves. Nintendo thinks they are going to continue to sell out everywhere for the next few years. Thats arrogant.