According to the worldwide hardware shipped page, Nintendo shipped a total of 5.5 million N64s in Japan during it's 'sales' lifetime from June of 1996 to 2002/2003 (with over 90% of sales by mid 2001).  Wii is at 2.5 million in Japan, with sales of 1.5 million in less than 5 months of 2007.  With Wii selling at ~50,000 a week even in the 'low' weeks in Japan, sales of at least 1.6 million more should be expected for the remaining 32 weeks of the year.  That would put Wii past Genesis and Gamecube sales in Japan by the end of 2007 as a bare minimum.

However, Wii sales are going to pick up alot at least 4 more times in 2007 - for Dragon Quest Swords in July, for Super Smash Brothers Brawl, for Super Mario Galaxy, and for the late November- late December inevitable, across the board sales increase. 

It is also possible that sales bumps of varying levels may come from games such as Mario Party 8, Wii Health, RE 4 Wii, RE: UC, Opoona, Nights, Treasure Island Z (i forget the new name), Mario & Sonic at the Olympics, and Mario Strikers.

Since 2007 has already seen notable Wii releases - One Piece, Sonic, Big Brain Academy, Fire Emblem, Wario Ware, Super Paper Mario and 2 small holiday periods (week 1 in January always has big sales in Japan, as does Golden Week), I think we can use the 20 week average of ~76,500 as a base point for what Wii will average for the remaining 32 weeks of 2007.  While sales will likely hit the 40k-50k region for a few weeks in the summer, Mario, Brawl and late Nov-late Dec should see much bigger boosts than the previous holidays.

I think we are looking at..

Next 6 weeks: 55,000 (through July 7)

Next 4 weeks: 85,000 (after Dragon Quest Swords releases July 10..or July 12..I forget) (to Aug 4)

Next 4 weeks: 70,000 (number of small games released) (to Sept 1)

Next 4 weeks: 125,000 (Galaxy is released) (to Sept 29)

Next 4 weeks: 75,000 (Wii Health and/or small games released) (to Oct 26)

Next 5 weeks: 105,000 (Brawl, Olympics, RE: UC released) (to Nov 30)

Next 4 weeks: 150,000 (Holiday sales) (to Dec 27)

Next 4 days = (150,000)(4/7) ~ 86,000 more.

With that said, here is what that all adds upto for 2007:

Current: 1.53 million

Next 6 weeks - 330,000, following 4 weeks - 340,000, following 4 weeks 280,000, Galaxy released - 500,000 in 4 weeks, 300,000 in 4 post Mario Weeks, 525,000 pre holiday insanity, 686,000 for the holidays.

Essentially, I'm forecasting at least 2,961,000 more Wiis to be sold in Japan in 2007, at an average of 92,500 or so starting the week ending May 27.  For the year, that would be 4.491 million Wiis sold in Japan, an average of 86,365 each week.  LTD hardware on Dec 31, 2007 would be 5.491 million - meaning Wii passing LTD Japanese N64 totals in 12 months and 3 weeks on sale (In Japan, Wii launched Dec 8, 2006 I think).

Given the theory that Nintendo is nearing 1.5 million Wiis made per month (340,000 per week for a 31 day month), I think shipping (with the average obviously skewed for holidays) ~90,000 each week to Japan is reasonable.  If most weeks end up seeing sales of 100,000 in the Americas, 75,000 in Japan, and 60,000 in Europe/Others, what I'd like to see is if Nintendo can save 105,000 Wiis each week for 21 weeks (excluding Nov & December and with the assumption that 2 weeks before then will need huge shipments as well), because then it will have a stockpile of 2,205,000 Wiis to deploy for November & December - an extra 245,000 Wiis to ship each week for that 9 week period.  In all likelihood, Nintendo would give half of that to the Americas, and boost Europe & Japan about 60k each.  That would leave November-December with American sales potential of 222k, Europe around 120k, and Japan around 150k if Nintendo does start selling over 85k on average for the upcoming period.

Most likely it will end up passing the N64, by at latest, January. IF Nintendo gets their rear in gear and decides that Japan needs systems. However, if Nintendo really destroys the Japaneese' demand of gaming systems, and only sends 50k systems there/wk, it has no chance of doing it.

It's highly possible to get that amount shipped/sold during that time. (Would sold even more if it was possible) Still hoping that Big N will do another boost to the Wii production after summer.

I don't think it matters what games are realesed, so far it isn't the games that stops the sales in Japan it is supply. So let us see, Wii might pass N64 if, and only if, they got the supply for doing it.

I agree with mrstickball. Nintendo might feel that they have Japan in their hands, and will try to focus on US and Europe. So, in the end, it just comes down to the supplies that they get. Assuming they sell through all of them, of course, then we would be seeing The Source's Japan numbers at the end of the year.

Yeah, umm... how long was the DS supply constrained in Japan?  They sure did kill the demand for that by not shipping enough, didn't they?  Yeah, poor DS, all sorts of dead in Japan because Nintendo couldn't ship them as fast as people bought them...