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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

Ryuu96 on 28 July 2024

My personal theory is Trump will say "Russia and Ukraine must negotiate to peace" and when Ukraine says "we won't surrender any territory" then Trump will say that Ukraine is being the unreasonable one (and not Russia) then cut aid off to Ukraine...Or he will just straight abandon them, again, like he did to the Kurds, a long-time American ally.

People need to be prepared too, Biden can lift the restrictions tomorrow on Ukraine aid, in terms of what they can hit, it will not end the war anytime soon, further sanctions will not end the war anytime soon, unless one side can achieve air-superiority (which is extremely unlikely) then this war will go on for a number of years no matter what, there is no way to end this war "in one day" or 1 week, or 1 month, or even 1 year.

And Trump will not like that, he will want the war ended ASAP because he's an impatient little chode and the fastest way to end the war is to cut aid to Ukraine which unless Europe MASSIVELY steps up, Ukraine will quickly lose more territory and be forced into accepting a defeat. Then Trump can claim he "stopped the war and achieved peace" in his term still.

There's a lot of talk recently about Russia running out of shit but they still have years worth of equipment, they still have millions of bodies, the fields are still littered with drones, artillery and minefields, Ukraine has a disadvantage in manpower too. Unless there's drastic advancements in de-mining, electronic warfare and counter artillery, it's going to take years to actually slowly and methodically retake land.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 28 July 2024

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shavenferret on 29 July 2024

The Kremlin jails the father of Russia's internet

https://cepa.org/article/russia-jails-the-father-of-russias-internet/



crissindahouse on 29 July 2024

Seems like Russia deployed 3 submarines with cruise missiles to the Black Sea. Even more destruction of Ukraine incoming



Ryuu96 on 29 July 2024
crissindahouse said:

Seems like Russia deployed 3 submarines with cruise missiles to the Black Sea. Even more destruction of Ukraine incoming

I think they were already there? Russia's Black Sea Fleet consists of 7 submarines, 1 is being refitted in the Baltics, 1 is in the Mediterranean, 1 was destroyed by Ukraine, leaving 4 left and 3 are fitted with cruise missiles, the 4th isn't. So I don't think this is anything "new" and I assume Türkiye closing the strait includes to submarines as well. 



crissindahouse on 29 July 2024
Ryuu96 said:
crissindahouse said:

Seems like Russia deployed 3 submarines with cruise missiles to the Black Sea. Even more destruction of Ukraine incoming

I think they were already there? Russia's Black Sea Fleet consists of 7 submarines, 1 is being refitted in the Baltics, 1 is in the Mediterranean, 1 was destroyed by Ukraine, leaving 4 left and 3 are fitted with cruise missiles, the 4th isn't. So I don't think this is anything "new" and I assume Türkiye closing the strait includes to submarines as well. 

I think they meant that this is the first time all of them are in the waters at the same time and none somewhere in a harbor or something like that so that they could potentially launch more missiles at once on Ukraine. 



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Bofferbrauer2 on 29 July 2024
crissindahouse said:
Ryuu96 said:

I think they were already there? Russia's Black Sea Fleet consists of 7 submarines, 1 is being refitted in the Baltics, 1 is in the Mediterranean, 1 was destroyed by Ukraine, leaving 4 left and 3 are fitted with cruise missiles, the 4th isn't. So I don't think this is anything "new" and I assume Türkiye closing the strait includes to submarines as well. 

I think they meant that this is the first time all of them are in the waters at the same time and none somewhere in a harbor or something like that so that they could potentially launch more missiles at once on Ukraine. 

It's more like they're waiting for Ukraine to make those subs permanent residents of the floor of the black sea

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 29 July 2024

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Ryuu96 on 29 July 2024
Bofferbrauer2 said:
crissindahouse said:

I think they meant that this is the first time all of them are in the waters at the same time and none somewhere in a harbor or something like that so that they could potentially launch more missiles at once on Ukraine. 

It's more like they're waiting for Ukraine to make those subs permanent residents of the floor of the black sea

Doubt Russia is dumb enough to park them in range again, Lol.

Unfortunate Ukraine isn't allowed Storm Shadow's maximum range version which is 550km.



Ryuu96 on 29 July 2024
Spoiler!



Ryuu96 on 29 July 2024
Spoiler!



Ryuu96 on 29 July 2024
Spoiler!