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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

I'm not going to claim to be an expert on this matter but I don't really understand how Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries which turn crude oil into refined oils such as gasoline, will affect global fuel prices on crude oil and to me I wonder if Ukraine is being scapegoated as the easy thing to blame once again by the greedy oil industry.

Ukraine has been hitting refineries only, not crude oil fields, Russia barely exports refined oil nowadays as they need it for domestic usage, they're still capable of crude oil exports, the oil prices can be increasing for multiple reasons and not limited to Ukraine striking oil refineries. I've read from others that these attacks shouldn't affect the global market much as well.

"Since Russian import capacity for refined oil products is limited in the short run, since they're set up to export, it's actually a fairly clever way of causing disruption in the Russian market with limited impact globally," Aslak Berg, Research Fellow at the Centre for European Reform, told Euronews.

"The Ukrainians have been hitting refineries, not Russian crude oil production or export facilities. This causes problems for Russia's domestic market for refined products, but for the rest of the world, a decline in Russia's exports of products will be compensated for by increased exports of crude oil," Berg explained.

Euronews

On top of that, Russia banned gasoline exports (refined oils) before these regular attacks so Ukraine is striking something which Russia wasn't exporting anyway?

Russia Bans Gasoline Exports For 6 Months From March 1 | Reuters

Their crude oil is useless to them if they can't convert it to gasoline, diesel, etc. If they lose that ability to convert domestic oil for domestic use that hurts Russia a lot more than it hurts America and Europe, they then have to decide what to do with their crude oil since they can't refine it anymore, they aren't going to leave it in limited storage, thus they will more likely sell it, they will be desperate for cash and increase crude oil exports since they can no longer refine, thus that should decrease the global prices of crude oil, no?

Also...

The Kremlin has been working with Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, to keep prices high as part of the broader OPEC+ grouping which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and key allies.

Seems the blame should be targeted towards OPEC.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 07 April 2024

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I also struggle to believe that's the main reason or the only reason, after everything I've witnessed from America during the course of this war but we'll see if their tune changes after the election, I have my doubts that it will, I think there's some in Biden's admin who are paralysed over fear of escalation but throw out a bunch of other excuses, a bit like Germany.

America isn't even providing aid to Ukraine right now even with a Democratic President, all they have right now is a vague promise that maybe someday in the future the aid will possibly be passed maybe with some restrictions who knows, while nicely telling Mike Johnson to pass it after nearly half a year and then there's no guarantee Biden even wins.

Ukraine should continue the attacks because it's far better than whatever America is doing right now, America can dislike it but they shouldn't publicly come out and say they don't support Ukraine in doing it because it's not a good look, America is beginning to have question marks around it as an ally already thanks to Republicans, Democrats don't need to add onto that.



Now lets blame Mother Nature



"I think we have assessed throughout the last couple of months that Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily," Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said on Wednesday at a talk hosted by the Center for a New American Security. Campbell cofounded CNAS, a Washington-based think tank.

He said Moscow suffered initial setbacks during the Ukraine war but had "retooled and now poses a threat to Ukraine."

"But not just to Ukraine," Campbell said. "Its newfound capabilities pose a longer-term challenge to stability in Europe and threatens NATO allies."

Russia's Military 'Almost Completely Reconstituted' After Ukraine Losses: US Official

America says this and then also tells Ukraine off, tries to place restrictions on them, can't pass aid, gets mad at France for being firmer on Russia, etc.

I'm slightly more pessimistic on Ukraine's chances in recent months and it's largely down to the West, while Russia has no restrictions, Ukraine has dozens, while Russia's allies are fully in support of them, the West dithers and can't get on the same page, now China is supporting Russia, I reckon at this rate, China could fully support Russia by sending military equipment but only don't because they need it for Taiwan.

And the West improves their positions by a small amount per year, usually only as a reaction to something Russia did rather than proactive.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 07 April 2024

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Ryuu96 said:

But last month the Financial Times reported the Biden Administration had urged Ukraine to halt its campaign targeting Russian refineries and warned that "the drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation."

U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith said Tuesday that "in terms of actually going after targets inside Russia, that is something that the United States is not particularly supportive of." State Department spokesman Matthew Miller declined last week "to speak to specific conversations" regarding the Russian refineries. But he said "it has always been our position since the outset of this war that we do not encourage or support Ukraine taking strikes outside its own territory."

So Ukraine has to suffer attacks on its territory, but it can't hit back at its aggressor? Striking Russian air bases and drone facilities have obvious military value, and Russia's refineries obviously help to fuel and finance the Kremlin's war machine. Between Feb. 24, 2022, and January 2024, Russia has damaged or destroyed some $9 billion in Ukrainian energy infrastructure, according to the Kyiv School of Economics.

Ukraine's strikes have disrupted between 10% and 14% of Russia's refinery capacity. British defense intelligence notes that "depending on the extent of the damage, major repairs could take considerable time and expense." Russia will also have to deploy air defenses to protect its refineries.

Ukraine's goal with the strikes is to complicate Russia's efforts to fuel its troops. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates that in May 2022 Russia's military campaign was consuming nearly 6% of domestic diesel output.

Sanctions have created spare refining capacity in Belarus, but Russia may have to reconfigure the routes it uses to get fuel to the front. Vladimir Putin will prioritize filling tanks over Russians' cars, and the refinery attacks will likely cause local fuel disruptions that bring the war home to Russians.

Ukraine's strikes on Russia won't decide the war's outcome, but they are important as Ukraine's dwindling ammo and air defenses limit other options. While Mr. Putin continues to escalate, the White House frets about the Russian response to any perceived escalation. The bigger geopolitical risk is what will happen if Ukraine falls to Russian aggression. If the U.S. won't offer more arms, the least it can do is get out of Ukraine's way.

Biden Tells Ukraine Not to Hit Russia - WSJ

shavenferret said:

As you can see, the price of oil was around $60 per barrel at the beginning of 2024, but now is at $81.5. This is about a 35% jump, and the gas prices and just about everything is going to get a lot more expensive very quickly with further attacks on oil infrastructure.  Basically, inflation correlates the most with oil and gas prices, so this is a direct Guage of consumer pain. 

And this is why Biden urges Ukraine not to attack Russian infrastructure. The high oil price tends to have big effect on the re-election chances of any incumbent president, so if it continues to rise, Biden fears he may lose to Trump just because of this.

The only thing that can stop Trump is fallout from his trials. And it would seem unwise to stop attacking in order to increase the chances of Biden winning when they need help now. 



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shavenferret said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

shavenferret said:

As you can see, the price of oil was around $60 per barrel at the beginning of 2024, but now is at $81.5. This is about a 35% jump, and the gas prices and just about everything is going to get a lot more expensive very quickly with further attacks on oil infrastructure.  Basically, inflation correlates the most with oil and gas prices, so this is a direct Guage of consumer pain. 

And this is why Biden urges Ukraine not to attack Russian infrastructure. The high oil price tends to have big effect on the re-election chances of any incumbent president, so if it continues to rise, Biden fears he may lose to Trump just because of this.

The only thing that can stop Trump is fallout from his trials. And it would seem unwise to stop attacking in order to increase the chances of Biden winning when they need help now. 

Yeah, what if they stop attacking and Biden loses anyway?

Tbh I still think Biden wins, I believe women will come out strong against Republicans this election thanks to them attacking abortion, along with black voters likely largely going to Biden and Trump in 2024 is weaker than Trump in 2020, he is the incumbent who lost, a loser, there are silent Republicans who will still vote for him though because "Dems bad!" but I think Trump's fanbase is slowly shrinking to just the craziest of the bunch.

Democrats have also been overperforming in special elections, I think Dems take back House and control Presidency.



BFR said:

Hmmm...

Be very interesting if it's confirmed a British drone.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 07 April 2024



*Checks if Mike Turner has signed the Discharge Petition*

No.

*Checks if Michael McCaul has signed the Discharge Petition*

No.

Lol...Calling out your party for having members sucked in by Russian propaganda but doing nothing to help Ukraine because it's the Dems who made the Discharge Petition. These dudes no matter what, even if they see the rot infecting their party are still party over all else. Calling them out is fine but what are you doing to help Ukraine?

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 07 April 2024