Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 19 January 2024.
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) January 19, 2024
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/0npPvd2nrM #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/0lR7vlO9RH
The majority or all of certain critical types of munitions for Ukraine comes from the US. Europe can’t replace these in the short-term. Without another aid package, Ukraine will struggle to defend its territory and infrastructure. https://t.co/J5vevv1lp0
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) January 20, 2024
Scumbag Republicans.
Would it be feasible for Europe to buy American weaponry/ammunition on behalf of Ukraine to get around the subhuman trash blocking the aid?
Things will become dire for Ukraine if American aid doesn't resume soon. Starting to think House are just using the border as an excuse because they don't want to continue aiding Ukraine, there are quite a lot of Russian shills in there who would sooner sell out their own country than hurt Russia. Seriously hope Democrats take control of House in 2024 and Biden remains President.
Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 20 January 2024
Lithuania's Ukraine policy is very clear. Whatever victory takes. pic.twitter.com/1ayexNXznc
— Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) January 18, 2024
Blockade-Busting Ukraine Proves the Experts Wrong | "Russia’s all-out war of aggression against Ukraine has made many apparently reasonable assumptions seem foolish. The latest is Ukraine’s breach of the Russian Black Sea grain blockade." @OlhaKorbut https://t.co/NmkXendxTO
— CEPA (@cepa) January 18, 2024
With the concerted effort by the SBU with the participation of the Ukrainian Navy (and later GUR) since mid 2022, Ukraine was able to develop more and more capable maritime drones that showed their capabilities against Russian military ships and land infrastructure
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) January 18, 2024
"SeaBaby is no longer just a naval drone, but a multi-purpose platform that the SBU actively uses today for various tasks, including for attacks on the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation ," Malyuk (head of SBu) adds.
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) January 18, 2024
“They decided to solve the first problem by showing Russia the vulnerability of its own ports”
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) January 18, 2024
On Aug 4 and 5, a new drone Mamai hit an amphibious ship and tanker in the port of Novorossiysk, the heart of Russian maritime trade
"One must understand that any excesses at sea are not profitable for the Russians either. This immediately leads to an increase in the price of insurance and freight. For global insurance companies, the entire Black Sea is one region”
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) January 18, 2024
“Novorossiysk is also a huge oil transshipment. It is through this port that oil giants from the USA export Kazakh oil. This is where the "grey" export of Russian oil takes place under the guise of other brands”
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) January 18, 2024
Key lesson from this crucial episode? The only strategy that works with Russia is a threat of symmetric retaliation against their critical infrastructure. “Hit our ships and ports and we will hit yours”
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) January 18, 2024
Source of quotes:https://t.co/OtLAhWxZ3O
“Ukraine's game was played at very high stakes, the country's leadership received "warnings" from partners at all levels.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Since Russia invaded Ukraine we looked for a framework to forecast interstate war duration
— Alex Isakov (@x1skv) January 18, 2024
Bennett & Stam's work provides exactly this - empirical benchmark, which avoids polarized 'brief vs forever' calls
But (B&S,1996) is mute on likely outcome
We address this now... pic.twitter.com/jib1kA1411
Based on CoW data, we estimate that over the 200 two centuries, most wars lasting more than 2years result in a loss or stalemate for the initiator
— Alex Isakov (@x1skv) January 18, 2024
The likelihood of loss rises from 33% in the first 0.5Y of war to 50% by mid-3Y — and grows further pic.twitter.com/aLv1bxFVGw
Still, I think, the core pattern of declining probability of victory for initiator of war declining with war is stable across history - and if anything is becoming even more pronounced over centuries
— Alex Isakov (@x1skv) January 18, 2024
Why is that? pic.twitter.com/e8dCxzF7c6
The longer a war continues, the higher the risk of a loss or stalemate for the initiating side
— Alex Isakov (@x1skv) January 18, 2024
In our sample of 96 interstate conflicts from 1816-2007, the initiator avoided defeat or stalemate in only 4 of 12 conflicts that lasted 2+ years. 2 of those 4 took place before 1900. pic.twitter.com/gV17hHZxBv
Russian forces conducted another mechanized attack towards Novomykhailivka recently, with the formation suffering severe losses as it crossed open ground south of the town.
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) January 19, 2024
Seen here, a fleeing Russian MT-LB takes a Ukrainian ATGM strike. pic.twitter.com/QnWVPHR25u
VIDEO: Chinese man who voluntarily signed up to join the Russian army and travel to Ukraine to kill Ukrainians now wants to leave and thinks he’s going to die pic.twitter.com/PzSj6a40du
— Business Ukraine mag (@Biz_Ukraine_Mag) January 19, 2024
#Turkey plays a key role in the export of Western machine tools to #Russia. Many of these machines go to the Russian military industry, helping NATO's main adversary rebuild and modernize its armed forces. https://t.co/lbwmUwIoB7
— Janis Kluge (@jakluge) January 19, 2024
Overnight, Ukrainian drones hit an oil depot in the Bryansk region in Russia. There is a big fire and several oil tanks are affected. pic.twitter.com/VCK1qcIAJY
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) January 19, 2024
Russia’s Novosibirsk Declares State of Emergency Over Growing Heating Outages - The Moscow Times
Macron to the French armed forces just now: “We can’t let Russia think it can win…a Russian victory is the end of European security” https://t.co/HYC4sRc245
— Sophie Pedder (@PedderSophie) January 19, 2024
Russia's future is not our concern. As democratic nations we should be focussing on strengthening our own security, tightening sanctions against authoritarians and helping Ukraine win.
— Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) January 18, 2024
That was my message at the #WEF24 session "Russia: What next?"https://t.co/9Yvtums4nj
In one of my last meetings with Lavrov when I served as US ambassador, he pleaded with me to give a Russian oligarch a US visa for his wife so she could give birth to their child in the US and get US citizenship. Remember that hypocrisy the next time you read anything he says.
— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) January 19, 2024
Ukrainian defence forces liquidated one of the most effective Russian FPV drone operators with call sign Moisey [Moses] in Krynky.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) January 19, 2024
This was reported by several pro-Russian channels referencing a message that appeared in Moses' channel posted by his wife.
He was apparently the… pic.twitter.com/HFKh55JMFM
Faces of warriors of the M2 Bradley crew which took on the Russian T-90M:
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) January 19, 2024
"On the left - Serhiy, right - Oleksandr. In civil life they worked in different areas. One was a driving instructor, the other was involved with motorcycle repairs.
And now it is a strong team, whose… pic.twitter.com/wDuDJxD20v
A more personal and detailed interview with the crew of the Ukrainian Bradley which took on a russian T-90M. Also goes over using American-supplied Bradley IFVs in conditions of the Ukrainian winter 💪 pic.twitter.com/GtSGt8Cxiq
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) January 19, 2024
As part of those preparations, Russia continues to attack Ukrainian logistics and #Ukraine's critical infrastructure. In what has become a war of attrition, #Ukraine faces two key vulnerabilities: shortage of weapons and munitions and the constantly growing stress on manpower.2/6
— Andrew A. Michta (@andrewmichta) January 19, 2024
I've said this many times before, but it's worth repeating: We need a strategy for #Ukraine's victory in this war. It's not enough to keep repeating that Russia can't be allowed to win and Ukraine can't lose. We need clarity on the end state to generate the needed resources.4/6
— Andrew A. Michta (@andrewmichta) January 19, 2024
Weakness invites aggression-just recall the consequences of Europe's timidity and America's isolationism in 1938. Like Germany and Japan back then, now Russia and China are arming rapidly. The question is: Will we recognize the threat and respond with determination. Will we?6/6
— Andrew A. Michta (@andrewmichta) January 19, 2024
How The West Can Counter North Korean Arms Supplies to Russia
"The past two years have shown that when the United States hesitates, its allies do as well, but when they lead, then they will be followed"
This may be true, but Europe needs to start thinking for itself. America is an ocean away and it needs to be able to stand on its own feet.
Heavy explosions and large fires in the Leningrad Region, Russia, almost 900km from the Ukrainian border. According to the governor of the Leningrad region, the facilities of the Novatek natural gas company are compromised. Locals reported that they heard the sounds of drones… pic.twitter.com/wioj0BNugv
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 21, 2024
Per SOTA, Ukraine allegedly attacked the Shcheglovsky Val plant in Russia's Tula. The plant manufactures military equipment including Pantsir air defense systems. pic.twitter.com/dmH8APTbPm
— Giorgi Revishvili (@revishvilig) January 20, 2024
The Shcheglovsky Val plant in Russia's Tula is reportedly on fire after UAV attacks. pic.twitter.com/2LQvjdtA07
— Giorgi Revishvili (@revishvilig) January 20, 2024
Two years into Russia's "special military operation" and these Ukrainian attacks on strategic targets well within Russian borders are becoming increasingly routine. https://t.co/wWCLX7D3lJ
— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) January 20, 2024
It is now relatively certain that the pilot and commander of the Russian Il-22M, which made an emergency landing in Anapa, Russia, after being struck by a missile and which totally perforated the plane, perished.
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 21, 2024
Viktor Ivanovic Klimov has been declared dead on the very same… pic.twitter.com/ZPm7qL8TPM
It is now relatively certain that the pilot and commander of the Russian Il-22M, which made an emergency landing in Anapa, Russia, after being struck by a missile and which totally perforated the plane, perished.
Viktor Ivanovic Klimov has been declared dead on the very same day. The landing was performed by the co-pilot, who got injured.
Given the extent of the damage of the tail section shown at the picture and the fact that the pilot got killed, I assume that the whole plane and the equipment has been rendered useless.
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