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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

Dulfite on 16 March 2022

I'm really curious what neutral state with ots own security alliance would look like. Could be:

-All the non NATO Baltic nations.
-Alliance with any non - NATO nation.
-Alliance with nations inside NATO, but somehow different from NATO.

We could be coming to the dawn of a new global faction, perhaps even the precursor to the replacement of NATO.



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SecondWar on 16 March 2022
Dulfite said:

I'm really curious what neutral state with ots own security alliance would look like. Could be:

-All the non NATO Baltic nations.
-Alliance with any non - NATO nation.
-Alliance with nations inside NATO, but somehow different from NATO.

We could be coming to the dawn of a new global faction, perhaps even the precursor to the replacement of NATO.

There are no non-Nato Baltic states. All 3 (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia) are all in Nato.



Dulfite on 16 March 2022
SecondWar said:
Dulfite said:

I'm really curious what neutral state with ots own security alliance would look like. Could be:

-All the non NATO Baltic nations.
-Alliance with any non - NATO nation.
-Alliance with nations inside NATO, but somehow different from NATO.

We could be coming to the dawn of a new global faction, perhaps even the precursor to the replacement of NATO.

There are no non-Nato Baltic states. All 3 (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia) are all in Nato.

My bad on my own ignorance.



Dulfite on 16 March 2022
CaptainExplosion said:
Ryuu96 said:

It won't be something to replace NATO, it'll be something like troops from certain countries stationed in Ukraine with a security guarantee to defend it if it comes under attack, that's only if NATO is out of the cards, I think Ukraine will want US, French and maybe Turkish troops stationed in Ukraine with security guarantees.

But if we do that won't Vladimir Putrid fire his nukes? -_-

I get the impression you think Putin will actually fire the nukes? No way that happens, despite whatever rhetoric on his behalf. He isn't stupid, if Russia fires nukes, almost every single one of them will get shot down before they land (most of them will be destroyed at the missile sites before they even have a chance to be unleashed). The few that day land won't hit any major cities as their iron dome defenses (for lack of a better term) will kick in, so the allies will basically have minimal losses, yet Moscow would be utterly annihilated at the very least (enough nukes will launch at that one city alone that they couldn't shoot all of them down) and Russia would dissolve into numerous warring/separated factions without it, leaving Russia gone as an empire of the past and Putin as the laughingstock dictator of a once great nation. Putin, I think, wants to go down in history as a powerful leader, not one who brought about the destruction of the nation he lead. No way, if he is sane, will he launch nukes. He only has a chance at winning proxy, conventional wars, not anything direct against NATO and certainly not going nuclear.

If he is crazy, on the other hand, then I think his own generals would remove him from power or kill him before they actually launch nukes.



Dulfite on 16 March 2022
CaptainExplosion said:
Ryuu96 said:

No matter what you tell me, I can't weep for them. They were aiding a terrorist leader and knew it too.

It isn't always that black and white. Not to say they aren't doing an evil, but let's take North Korea, for example. We know from intelligence, interviewed defectors, etc. that if you disobey orders, if you defect, if you don't fall in line completely, then not only you, but your entire family could be massacred. If Russia has similar situations, it would be very difficult for even the most moralist people out there from at least looking like you are following orders by crossing the border and pointing your gun at the targets. I wouldn't be surprised at all, if many Russian troops aim to miss as they shoot, just so they give the illusion of following orders without crossing a morole line. Sure, there are plenty that have evil in their hearts, but there are also many just concerned about their families and loved ones and appearing to follow orders so they stay safe and alive.



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Dulfite on 16 March 2022
CaptainExplosion said:
Dulfite said:

I get the impression you think Putin will actually fire the nukes? No way that happens, despite whatever rhetoric on his behalf. He isn't stupid, if Russia fires nukes, almost every single one of them will get shot down before they land (most of them will be destroyed at the missile sites before they even have a chance to be unleashed). The few that day land won't hit any major cities as their iron dome defenses (for lack of a better term) will kick in, so the allies will basically have minimal losses, yet Moscow would be utterly annihilated at the very least (enough nukes will launch at that one city alone that they couldn't shoot all of them down) and Russia would dissolve into numerous warring/separated factions without it, leaving Russia gone as an empire of the past and Putin as the laughingstock dictator of a once great nation. Putin, I think, wants to go down in history as a powerful leader, not one who brought about the destruction of the nation he lead. No way, if he is sane, will he launch nukes. He only has a chance at winning proxy, conventional wars, not anything direct against NATO and certainly not going nuclear.

If he is crazy, on the other hand, then I think his own generals would remove him from power or kill him before they actually launch nukes.

But aren't his own generals spineless around him?

Dulfite said:

It isn't always that black and white. Not to say they aren't doing an evil, but let's take North Korea, for example. We know from intelligence, interviewed defectors, etc. that if you disobey orders, if you defect, if you don't fall in line completely, then not only you, but your entire family could be massacred. If Russia has similar situations, it would be very difficult for even the most moralist people out there from at least looking like you are following orders by crossing the border and pointing your gun at the targets. I wouldn't be surprised at all, if many Russian troops aim to miss as they shoot, just so they give the illusion of following orders without crossing a morole line. Sure, there are plenty that have evil in their hearts, but there are also many just concerned about their families and loved ones and appearing to follow orders so they stay safe and alive.

You keep telling me that there are good people in the Russian army, but it's getting harder and harder to find them.

Oh I never said good. As a christian, I know there is no one good, no one righteous, except Jesus Christ, and only by His grace am I saved by his free gift of life which I accepted.

I just always try to understand people's mentality, and some people do terrible things to keep things from happening to their loved ones.



ironmanDX on 16 March 2022
Dulfite said:
CaptainExplosion said:

No matter what you tell me, I can't weep for them. They were aiding a terrorist leader and knew it too.

It isn't always that black and white. Not to say they aren't doing an evil, but let's take North Korea, for example. We know from intelligence, interviewed defectors, etc. that if you disobey orders, if you defect, if you don't fall in line completely, then not only you, but your entire family could be massacred. If Russia has similar situations, it would be very difficult for even the most moralist people out there from at least looking like you are following orders by crossing the border and pointing your gun at the targets. I wouldn't be surprised at all, if many Russian troops aim to miss as they shoot, just so they give the illusion of following orders without crossing a morole line. Sure, there are plenty that have evil in their hearts, but there are also many just concerned about their families and loved ones and appearing to follow orders so they stay safe and alive.

Yup, it's seriously complex issue and this constant black and white breakdown we see just devalues what's actually going on here. We're constantly hearing bout how soldiers had no idea they'd be sent into Ukraine at all. Fair chance a lot of them have family and friends in Ukraine given their shared cultural history.



Dulfite on 16 March 2022
CaptainExplosion said:
Dulfite said:

Oh I never said good. As a christian, I know there is no one good, no one righteous, except Jesus Christ, and only by His grace am I saved by his free gift of life which I accepted.

I just always try to understand people's mentality, and some people do terrible things to keep things from happening to their loved ones.

Please stop trying to convert me. -_-

Huh? I was just explaining why I don't view anyone as good. Just saying I don't think anyone is good because I'm a christian doesn't really explain it well, so I gave a few more details to explain why.



drkohler on 16 March 2022
Dulfite said:

if Russia fires nukes, almost every single one of them will get shot down before they land (most of them will be destroyed at the missile sites before they even have a chance to be unleashed). The few that day land won't hit any major cities as their iron dome defenses (for lack of a better term) will kick in

You'd better think about that. Russia currently uses Iskander-M rockets which basically are hypersonic rockets that are accompanied by several "fake rockets". These fake rockets contain heat sources and radar-reflectors. Fired in "bundles", Nato does not have the defense systems to effectively counteract these. There is no obstacle that one could build nuclear rockets with the same effects.

Let's not forget the Patriot missile fiasco. years ago.

So to sum up, if any country whishes to start WW3, they will destroy most of their targets before they become the target.

Last edited by drkohler - on 17 March 2022

Mandalore76 on 17 March 2022

I get that they go on to mention later in the article that the political comedy that Zelensky starred in 7 years ago is returning to Netflix, but was this really the most appropriate thumbnail that the Washington Post could think of pairing with this headline?

Russia-Ukraine live updates: Slaughter in Chernihiv and devastation in Mariupol, as U.S. vows Russia will be held accountable 

© Zoya Shu/APRussia-Ukraine live updates: Slaughter in Chernihiv and devastation in Mariupol, as U.S. vows Russia will be held accountable

You stay classy, Washington Post.