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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

KiigelHeart said:
Ryuu96 said:

That doesn't really make any sense.

This isn't what a loyal puppet of Putin would do.

Wagner is an ally of Russia's armed forces which just illegally took control of a city, marched on Moscow with the intention of killing Shoigu/Gerasimov and who Putin then labelled as treasonous, Wagner blew out of the sky multiple Russian military aircraft and now they get to go home with no repercussions?

Putin's image is absolutely destroyed now and Wagner looks like the new boss, Putin looks weak, he is no longer Russia's President, Prigozhin is.

This is unprecedented for Putin's Presidency. This is the first time someone has ever made it look like he caved to their demands via a show of force since Putin came into power.

It's a mistake to apply our logic & reasoning to these fuckers. Loyal puppet of Putin will do whatever Putin tells him to do and we have no idea what it could be.

It makes no sense 25k of mercenaries could challenge Putin's regime. There was hardly any resistance which I found suspicious from the beginning, unless Putin was already dethroned and Prigozhin was used for theater. But him backing off all of a sudden like this? Nah I find it hard to believe it was an actual mutiny. 

And now Prigozhin looks like the loser. Shoigu & Gerasimov look like incompetent morons who need to be replaced. Putin? For us he does look like a loser but for Russian people I don't know. We'll see what their propaganda will do in coming days.

This is all my speculation of course, there are numerous of other possibilities. I hope I'm totally wrong and things will heat up in Moscow soon!

Well, in fairness, there was little resistance because Russia's army is bogged down in Ukraine, it's just showing how spread thin they are. In addition, Wagner's column was extremely well kitted out, they had modern tanks and very capable air defence systems alongside it, even Kadyrov's shit didn't come close to what Wagner was packing.

With that AD, no Russian air could get close without risking being blown out the skies, which happened multiple times in a single day, so they would have had to wait for Wagner to meet them in the ground and it seems like the focus was on fortifying Moscow with what little troops they have left in Russia. Just remember how much chaos ~100 Russian volunteer troops did in Belgorod.

I think Prigozhin could have backed off for a number of reasons.

Potentially Prigozhin never had any intention of taking over Russia, he just wanted to spook Putin into giving him what he wanted. Potentially he realised that he doesn't have the support to take Russia, driving along a highway is one thing, actually fighting Russian forces loyal to Putin is another, actually holding onto Moscow after taking it as well, whilst Putin was in St Petersburg, would have been complicated too.

Now the Russian people are cheering for Wagner/Prigozhin and know who he is a lot more than before, Lol.

But in light of this new information, what the fuck, now everyone looks like a moron aside from Lukashenko, Lmao.

If this new information is true then I don't think we'll see things heat up in Moscow, I still think Putin's image has been damaged beyond repair now though but I think for Prigozhin, if this information is true, he has basically got a semi-retirement (I had always speculated that Prigozhin actually didn't want any part in Ukraine and saw it as a sunk cost operation), and some of Wagner has been folded into MoD?

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 24 June 2023

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Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 24 June 2023

Well, here's hoping even more Russian troops meet a swift end.





I wonder if those Wagner fighters who did take part in the coup are being sent to Belarus with Prigozhin then maybe they're done with Ukraine?

So the ones in Ukraine (mostly prisoners, lower-ranking) will sign contracts with the Russian MoD.

Prigozhin's best forces (ones who raided Russia) will join him in Belarus.

Feels like Prigozhin got an out of the Ukraine shit, into the "safety" of Belarus (if Putin doesn't have him assassinated) and from there they will continue fucking over African countries (that is where Wagner makes the vast majority of its money).

The only reason Wagner was even in Ukraine wasn't ideology, it was money, Russia was promising large payments but that money is likely becoming smaller and smaller and the cost becoming too great, Wagner was paid for taking Bakhmut but it took them 9 months and thousands of deaths.

Is it worth it to Prigozhin when he can get far more out of terrorising African countries, far easier, than wasting his time with Ukraine?

We'll see...But I have a feeling that Prigozhin is done with Ukraine.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 24 June 2023

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Ryuu96 said:

He doesn't just LOOK weak. He's also a cowardly idiot who can't understand why he's lost so many cronies.



Feel like that pieces it together...Ukraine is a sunk cost fallacy to a militia for hire, Wagner is Prigozhin's cash bag, Russia was threatening to take it from him, he reacts aggressively and Russia panics, Lukashenko steps in and this allows Prigozhin to move Wagner (or at least, his best forces of Wagner) to Belarus so he no longer has to sign a contract with the MoD.

Now Prigozhin/Wagner won't be forced into the Ukraine war via a Russian law contract, from Belarus they can continue to operate in Africa completely free of Russia's oversight, all that money goes to Prigozhin still and they don't waste their time with Ukraine, Lukashenko also gets quite a strong private military force to keep his country in line.

Russia gets to keep the Wagner Prisoners and the shit that is left behind in Ukraine itself, they also remove the Wagner problem but as a result, Putin now looks like a coward but that is better than Wagner storming Moscow. Bit of a blow to Russia's military goals in Ukraine though if they do lose Prigozhin's best Wagner forces.



Ryuu96 said:

Feel like that pieces it together...Ukraine is a sunk cost fallacy to a militia for hire, Wagner is Prigozhin's cash bag, Russia was threatening to take it from him, he reacts aggressively and Russia panics, Lukashenko steps in and this allows Prigozhin to move Wagner (or at least, his best forces of Wagner) to Belarus so he no longer has to sign a contract with the MoD.

Now Prigozhin/Wagner won't be forced into the Ukraine war via a Russian law contract, from Belarus they can continue to operate in Africa completely free of Russia's oversight, all that money goes to Prigozhin still and they don't waste their time with Ukraine, Lukashenko also gets quite a strong private military force to keep his country in line.

Russia gets to keep the Wagner Prisoners and the shit that is left behind in Ukraine itself, they also remove the Wagner problem but as a result, Putin now looks like a coward but that is better than Wagner storming Moscow. Bit of a blow to Russia's military goals in Ukraine though if they do lose Prigozhin's best Wagner forces.

Maybe we'll get lucky and that's exactly what will happen to Russia.



Seems like back to business as usual then.

Slow grind until a breakthrough.

Send ATACMS.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 24 June 2023

Ryuu96 said:

Seems like back to business as usual then.

Slow grind until a breakthrough.

Send ATACMS.

And if possible, fire one right in Putin's face.