| Ryuu96 said: Feel like that pieces it together...Ukraine is a sunk cost fallacy to a militia for hire, Wagner is Prigozhin's cash bag, Russia was threatening to take it from him, he reacts aggressively and Russia panics, Lukashenko steps in and this allows Prigozhin to move Wagner (or at least, his best forces of Wagner) to Belarus so he no longer has to sign a contract with the MoD. Now Prigozhin/Wagner won't be forced into the Ukraine war via a Russian law contract, from Belarus they can continue to operate in Africa completely free of Russia's oversight, all that money goes to Prigozhin still and they don't waste their time with Ukraine, Lukashenko also gets quite a strong private military force to keep his country in line. Russia gets to keep the Wagner Prisoners and the shit that is left behind in Ukraine itself, they also remove the Wagner problem but as a result, Putin now looks like a coward but that is better than Wagner storming Moscow. Bit of a blow to Russia's military goals in Ukraine though if they do lose Prigozhin's best Wagner forces. |
Maybe we'll get lucky and that's exactly what will happen to Russia.
