So is Wagner actually moving against Putin in a coup or is this mostly just word from Prigozhin and thus Putin et al moving to preemptively cut the head off the snake? I can’t tell.

Prigozhin's video where he claims MoD killed Wagner soldiers is staged AF.

But hard to say whether he expected this response from Russia or not.

Actually I should clarify too, Prigozhin makes clear that this is NOT a move against Putin but IS a move against Shoigu/Gerasimov.

Not sure if that even matters much but Prigozhin continues to say he doesn't blame Putin.

Prigozhin says the army supports him, and accuses Shoygu of hiding 2000 dead Russian corpses in Rostov morgue to hide losses:

"The majority of the military are warmly supporting us. We get messages: “Finally, the jusice in the army will come! Finally, you will ensure we will get the ammo and won’t be thrown as meat!”

Just now, the information came through: in Rostov morgue, the Minister of Defence ordered to hide 2000 bodies, which are held there to avoid showcasing the losses.”

Prigozhin: "All patriots of Russia, true patriots of the country who know history, and not fans of a weak government that betrayed the interests of the state, take to the streets, we will find weapons. This night we will resolve the issue of traitors and criminals who have dishonored Russia. Their names are Shoigu, Gerasimov."

I haven't watched the video, so I can't say if it's staged or not. But it doesn't matter anyway; the whole war against Ukraine was based on lies, so why shouldn't it be a potential lie that brings Russia down from within?

Likewise, it won't matter if Prigozhin puts the blame exclusively on Shoigu and Gerasimov, but not Putin. By the looks of things, Putin trusts these two more than Prigozhin, so Putin will likely judge Prigozhin's actions as an attack on the leader himself and act accordingly.

On the frontline, the perception is different though. It wouldn't surprise me if a sizeable chunk of the Russian army joins Wagner, because there the question is one of life and death. If the current outlook for an individual is to die at the hands of the Ukrainians and NATO weapons with a high probability, then you might as well take the chance to turn against your own regime in hopes to survive this war. Wagner is more or less the only part of Russia's force that has had success in 2023 with the occupation of Bakhmut, so they can potentially be perceived as infinitely more competent than Shoigu and the others.