Former top U.S. commander says Russia cannot “out-suffer” the Ukrainians

Russia still occupies roughly 18 percent of Ukrainian territory in the southern and eastern corners of the country, and the counteroffensive is aimed at driving those forces out. For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to fight until Russia controls more land - including all four of the Ukrainian regions he annexed last September.

Petraeus sees virtually no chance of that happening.

"I don't think there is a realistic end state that he [Putin] can achieve, that his forces can achieve, that could be presented as victory, unless U.S. and Western support for Ukraine collapses," he said. "As long as that support remains steadfast, I think Russia's in a very difficult position."

"I don't think the manpower advantage is as significant as it sounds – and beyond that, Russia is running out of material to provide to their new conscripts," he said. "They've lost well over half of their original tank fleet – and they're in such a dire situation that they are bringing essentially World War II-vintage tanks out of storage and giving them to the units now to provide replacements for those tanks."

Ultimately, Petraeus said, the Russians cannot "out-suffer" Ukraine - a reference to the ways in which Russian and Soviet soldiers in past conflicts have managed to win long wars of attrition.

Petraeus: Ukraine Counteroffensive Likely to Set Russians Back - The Messenger

Few of those tweets aren't accurate, the last one for example, here is a tweet explaining why that one is nonsense. It was a natural fluctuation which occurred before the explosion, in addition, depleted uranium wouldn't cause a spike, it's a nothing burger increase which is within perfectly normal levels.

Unknown what was actually stored in Khmelnytskyi.

NATO Helps Ukraine Dispose of Ammunition - Ukraine was in the process of disposing of old and volatile Soviet ammunition and rockets, it is possible it was that as it is in the same area.

"These are old rockets from the time of the scoop, waiting to be disposed of. The Khmelnytskyi garrison, as well as the Pervomaysky district, were the same RVSN (missile forces of strategic purpose), which were part of the 43rd Missile Army. Of course, the coordinates of these locations are on the maps of our stupid neighbours"

It appears it was either housing Soviet-era aerial bombs, rocket fuel or both. I've seen a lot of ammo explosions during the course of this and I'm obviously no expert but it looks like a fuel explosion to me and nothing like an ammo explosion which tends to cook off and have repeated explosions.

Would also explain that Russia knew where it was, they've targeted Soviet-era storage facilities a lot because it's the ones they know.

I'd be interested to know what was damaged from the Patriot and how, was it a Kinzhal that got too close? Was it a malfunction? Was it a drone? Lol. If a Kinzhal only damaged a Patriot launcher then it's not really something worth bragging about for Russia, Imho

Patriot is a sophisticated system with multiple layers, it consists of an array radar, a command and control centre, then the launchers themselves, each Patriot Battery (the term used for the overall system; radar, command and control, launchers) consists of 5-8 launchers which can fire 4 missiles each at a time.

If a single launcher is damaged then that is the best case scenario, as a launcher is easily replaceable and each Patriot battery consists of 5-8 launchers so Ukraine would be down by 1 but still have launchers for their Patriot system. The most important aspect is the Radar array, followed by the Command & Control centre and none of them have to be close to the Patriot itself.

The fact that they are debating whether it can be repaired on Ukraine soil is good news, it suggests the damage isn't that serious because if it was then they'd likely haul that launcher straight back to Poland.

Obviously, it's bad in the sense that, they're down one launcher (4 missiles) and the Patriots have been the only thing capable of taking down the Kinzhal's so far but they should still have two Patriot batteries and multiple launchers, they'll have to adjust things slightly to account for being down one launcher.

All the more reason to send Ukraine even more Patriot batteries, Russia is lobbing their Kinzhal's at them and they're a lot harder to defend than HIMARS which are constantly on the move. On the flip side, Russia doesn't have an infinite supply of Kinzhal's either, quite the opposite, they haven't got many at all.

Typical Patriot setup, best case scenario, Ukraine lost one launcher, they have 7 left, 7 for one battery, 8 for the other battery, they only have two Patriot batteries in total so far.

Or it was typical shitty sourcing...

It did say "likely" damaged instead of "was" so...

It feels like they'll be two more counteroffensives at least, the one coming up in Springtime and then one later in the year except this time they'll have F-16s. I think if Ukraine can reach the Sea of Azov then that would be a massive win for this offensive, even if its not all their territory liberated.

I wonder why those retired generals are so optimistic though.