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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

Farsala said:

While Estonia has some balls for saying that. They don't have enough balls to put their men on the line for the defense of Ukraine. All other non nuclear states in eastern Europe could be helping Ukraine right now and ending this war sooner. But none of them have the balls to do it.

The G7 could call them a terrorist state, and if they did then Russia would end up like NK. A much more dangerous NK, with thousands more nukes in corrupt hands. I imagine Russia being like NK and lobbing missiles over Hawaii and Alaskan islands.

What more can Estonia do? They're a tiny country. If they were to get directly involved then russia would go after them too, and they'd fall, quickly. A big part of the reason Ukraine are doing so well is because of the size of the country and the number of people there. Estonia don't have those advantages and even with russia's rubbish army they wouldn't stand a chance. They're still risking russia going after them by criticising them and supporting Ukraine, but if they actually sent troops, that would guarantee it rather than just risk it.

I don't think there's any chance that russia end up like NK. putin isn't anywhere near as secure in his power as Kim is. He'd be ousted long before that happened. Plus there are plenty of powerful people in russia that want to make money, they can't do that alone, and unlike NK they have a lot of resources that they can sell if/when they do trade with other countries again. The negatives for russian leadership far outweigh the positives, and they surely wouldn't let putin's ego get in the way of that.



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Farsala said:
EpicRandy said:

I saw this article from the Kyiv independent citing Forbes estimating the cost of Russian strikes on Oct 10 to be between $400 and $700 million. This level of spending to target only civilian and civilian infrastructure which provide absolutely zero opportunity on the battlefield can only be described as a terrorist act. It's a real shame that anyone in the G7 as yet to officially recognize Russia as such. A shame that Estonia, which do share a border with Russia, as more 'balls' then the US, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Canada and Japan. 

Still this will only strengthen Ukrainian solidarity and troops moral, boost international support and add another nail in the coffin of Russia relations with ally such as China.

This means either :

Putin fully comprehend this and it means he knows he is losing and can't do anything about it so he throw a tamper tantrum lashing out a everything he can before he cannot anymore.

or

Putin really thinks those attacks further his goal, which only suggest he has completely loss touch with reality.

While Estonia has some balls for saying that. They don't have enough balls to put their men on the line for the defense of Ukraine. All other non nuclear states in eastern Europe could be helping Ukraine right now and ending this war sooner. But none of them have the balls to do it.

The G7 could call them a terrorist state, and if they did then Russia would end up like NK. A much more dangerous NK, with thousands more nukes in corrupt hands. I imagine Russia being like NK and lobbing missiles over Hawaii and Alaskan islands.

Doing everything you can short of a declaration of war is one thing while a declaration of war is on a completely different level.

Estonia population is just 1.33 million on a smaller patch of land than Russia currently control in Ukraine. If Russia choose to invade Estonia, there wont be logistical issue, there won't be tanks running out of fuel. Also their Capital is right on the Gulf of Finland which would be an easy target for Russians warships. Of course on the up side Estonia is a Nato member which defacto makes it out of reach of Russia, if Estonia ain't that one declaring war that is.

All those factor make Estonia yesterday declaration all the more commendable.

as for the G7 calling Russia a terrorist state, the real repercussion would be that they would need to sever all tie (diplomatic and economic) and I believe they would also be required to impose sanction on those supporting the terrorist state. For Russia however, becoming a second North Korea would require many more steps and may not be even remotely possible.

North Korea history prior to the Korean war made it's population way more malleable then it should have been ex: Widespread famine, awful but as there been a time in which it wasn't the case for north Korean? In Russia on the other hand, which was the G8 country up until 2014, the population won't have such difficulties to blame the regime for any loss in quality of life and if those were to be as extreme as North Korea, I have no doubt that they would get ride of Putin and friends on the spot. And while it's true that Putin anti-protest machine is highly efficient you could guess that under a famine those who should be dismantling protest would also be protesting.



EpicRandy said:

I saw this article from the Kyiv independent citing Forbes estimating the cost of Russian strikes on Oct 10 to be between $400 and $700 million. This level of spending to target only civilian and civilian infrastructure which provide absolutely zero opportunity on the battlefield can only be described as a terrorist act. It's a real shame that anyone in the G7 as yet to officially recognize Russia as such. A shame that Estonia, which do share a border with Russia, as more 'balls' then the US, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Canada and Japan. 

Still this will only strengthen Ukrainian solidarity and troops moral, boost international support and add another nail in the coffin of Russia relations with ally such as China.

This means either :

Putin fully comprehend this and it means he knows he is losing and can't do anything about it so he throw a tamper tantrum lashing out a everything he can before he cannot anymore.

or

Putin really thinks those attacks further his goal, which only suggest he has completely loss touch with reality.

Or this was made to appease the hardliners.

Putin is in an increasingly difficult position at home, with moral faltering, anti-war sentiment rising and hardliners wanting to use even more extreme measures, as in throwing nukes at Ukraine and ultimately at it's supporters. Putin backed himself into a corner with no easy way out, and the only way to go from here for him is forward and continuing the war if he wants to keep staying in power.

If the hardliners would overthrow him, it could all go downhill from there very fast. The best that could happen is that protests would arise so strongly that Putin and the hardliners would get thrown out for a more democratic leader - but even then, I'm not sure they'd accept giving back the Krim region to Ukraine, so fighting may very well continue even if this happens.



Ka-pi96 said:
Farsala said:

While Estonia has some balls for saying that. They don't have enough balls to put their men on the line for the defense of Ukraine. All other non nuclear states in eastern Europe could be helping Ukraine right now and ending this war sooner. But none of them have the balls to do it.

The G7 could call them a terrorist state, and if they did then Russia would end up like NK. A much more dangerous NK, with thousands more nukes in corrupt hands. I imagine Russia being like NK and lobbing missiles over Hawaii and Alaskan islands.

What more can Estonia do? They're a tiny country. If they were to get directly involved then russia would go after them too, and they'd fall, quickly. A big part of the reason Ukraine are doing so well is because of the size of the country and the number of people there. Estonia don't have those advantages and even with russia's rubbish army they wouldn't stand a chance. They're still risking russia going after them by criticising them and supporting Ukraine, but if they actually sent troops, that would guarantee it rather than just risk it.

I don't think there's any chance that russia end up like NK. putin isn't anywhere near as secure in his power as Kim is. He'd be ousted long before that happened. Plus there are plenty of powerful people in russia that want to make money, they can't do that alone, and unlike NK they have a lot of resources that they can sell if/when they do trade with other countries again. The negatives for russian leadership far outweigh the positives, and they surely wouldn't let putin's ego get in the way of that.

An attack on Estonia would further hamper Russian efforts with Ukraine. Now it is not only Ukrainians dying. Plus Lithuania and Poland and etc. could get involved.

What I am suggesting might be ridiculous, but what Russia is doing is equally as ridiculous.

Let's say Ukraine gives eastern European countries permission to plant their troops in their cities only for defense. No shots fired or declarations of war against Russia. 1 of 2 things would happen.

1. Russia continues firing missiles and attacking Ukrainian cities with those troops defending it.

Who is attacking who? Clearly Russia is attacking Ukraine and eastern European forces. Maybe Nato is not justified to intervene but it would at least free up Ukrainian troops for the frontline. This is similar to Belarus firing missiles into Ukraine using Russian troops.

2. Russia stops attacking and firing missiles at those cities.

In this case the focus is only on the frontline. And none of those countries are involved much.



EpicRandy said:
Farsala said:

While Estonia has some balls for saying that. They don't have enough balls to put their men on the line for the defense of Ukraine. All other non nuclear states in eastern Europe could be helping Ukraine right now and ending this war sooner. But none of them have the balls to do it.

The G7 could call them a terrorist state, and if they did then Russia would end up like NK. A much more dangerous NK, with thousands more nukes in corrupt hands. I imagine Russia being like NK and lobbing missiles over Hawaii and Alaskan islands.

Doing everything you can short of a declaration of war is one thing while a declaration of war is on a completely different level.

Estonia population is just 1.33 million on a smaller patch of land than Russia currently control in Ukraine. If Russia choose to invade Estonia, there wont be logistical issue, there won't be tanks running out of fuel. Also their Capital is right on the Gulf of Finland which would be an easy target for Russians warships. Of course on the up side Estonia is a Nato member which defacto makes it out of reach of Russia, if Estonia ain't that one declaring war that is.

All those factor make Estonia yesterday declaration all the more commendable.

as for the G7 calling Russia a terrorist state, the real repercussion would be that they would need to sever all tie (diplomatic and economic) and I believe they would also be required to impose sanction on those supporting the terrorist state. For Russia however, becoming a second North Korea would require many more steps and may not be even remotely possible.

North Korea history prior to the Korean war made it's population way more malleable then it should have been ex: Widespread famine, awful but as there been a time in which it wasn't the case for north Korean? In Russia on the other hand, which was the G8 country up until 2014, the population won't have such difficulties to blame the regime for any loss in quality of life and if those were to be as extreme as North Korea, I have no doubt that they would get ride of Putin and friends on the spot. And while it's true that Putin anti-protest machine is highly efficient you could guess that under a famine those who should be dismantling protest would also be protesting.

Well I am not in any way suggesting declaring war on Russia, since Russia has not declared war on Ukraine. Like I said with Kapi, Russian efforts into Estonia would be less efforts into Ukraine. Plus I am suggesting more than 1 non nuclear power to help Ukraine, and not just the weakest member. G7 imposing massive sanctions on China, India etc. would be disastrous.

Like I said they wouldn't be NK. They would be a far more dangerous NK. When Putin is ousted and a civil war erupts with multiple factions holding control over various different nuclear bombs, chaos could ensue.



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Farsala said:

Well I am not in any way suggesting declaring war on Russia, since Russia has not declared war on Ukraine. Like I said with Kapi, Russian efforts into Estonia would be less efforts into Ukraine. Plus I am suggesting more than 1 non nuclear power to help Ukraine, and not just the weakest member. G7 imposing massive sanctions on China, India etc. would be disastrous.

Like I said they wouldn't be NK. They would be a far more dangerous NK. When Putin is ousted and a civil war erupts with multiple factions holding control over various different nuclear bombs, chaos could ensue.

Well I don't know much about Russia nuclear launch mechanism and if it would even be possible without a proper chain of commandment but certainly with what we've seen so far I'm inclined to believe the worst is possible if Russia were to fall in a civil war.

In the mean time however, all country have a duty to not escalate things further, we are so close to WW3 that any sparks may transform 10s of thousands dead in Ukraine to 10s of millions dead in the world. All decision must be taken with extreme thoughtfulness, that's not to say anything is impossible but direct confrontation certainly isn't. The closest I could realistically think of to a direct involvement (for now) which should have limited repercussion is if countries supported and encouraged there own citizen to engage themselves in Ukraine foreign legion. As Russian propagandist are already claiming Nato troops to be in Ukraine it shouldn't escalate things further.

Short of that however, the best way to help Ukraine right now is to provide them with enough air defense system that you basically make it a no fly zone without enforcing it yourself. Make the ~50% success rate in intercepting missile and drone a 95%+ the next time. Country like Estonia, which doesn't boast much military capacity should focus on covering Ukraine humanitarian needs.







Ryuu96 said:

Clever guy...

This would also allow Ukraine to withdraw it's border garrisons from there, meaning Ukraine would get more troops to fight at the front with Russia.

As such, not sure this will go through, as this is a bit too transparent.



The situation with Belarus really sucks for Ukraine. They could free up so many troops, tanks, air defense and other equipment if they wouldn't need so many fortified positions along the shared border which is almost 1000km. If that was another country Ukraine would be in such a great position already.