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Forums - Politics - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

shavenferret said:

About 3000 russians are circled in the pokrovosk area.  I knew that it was a large number but didn't think it was this big.  

For a bit further information and some maps: https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/09/25/frontline-report-ukraine-forms-largest-russian-cauldron-yet-in-pokrovsk-counter-attack-trapping-thousands-soldiers

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 26 September 2025

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Russian for es in Ukraine have been decimated literally by desertions. It is expected that 10% or roughly 70k troops will have deserted by the end of the year.

https://xcancel.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1971930123298611441

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2abvJeZKsqA



shavenferret said:

Russian for es in Ukraine have been decimated literally by desertions. It is expected that 10% or roughly 70k troops will have deserted by the end of the year.

https://xcancel.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1971930123298611441

For context, is that figure since the start of the war?



SecondWar said:
shavenferret said:

Russian for es in Ukraine have been decimated literally by desertions. It is expected that 10% or roughly 70k troops will have deserted by the end of the year.

https://xcancel.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1971930123298611441

For context, is that figure since the start of the war?

70k just for 2025, about twice that of 2024. No clue about 2023 and 2022 though.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
SecondWar said:

For context, is that figure since the start of the war?

70k just for 2025, about twice that of 2024. No clue about 2023 and 2022 though.

I'm sure that desertion numbers were much lower in the past few years, because Ukraine has stepped up their game quite a bit since the beginning.  



Bofferbrauer2 said:
shavenferret said:

About 3000 russians are circled in the pokrovosk area.  I knew that it was a large number but didn't think it was this big.  

For a bit further information and some maps: https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/09/25/frontline-report-ukraine-forms-largest-russian-cauldron-yet-in-pokrovsk-counter-attack-trapping-thousands-soldiers

Will check it out, thanks.  



SecondWar said:
shavenferret said:

Russian for es in Ukraine have been decimated literally by desertions. It is expected that 10% or roughly 70k troops will have deserted by the end of the year.

https://xcancel.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1971930123298611441

For context, is that figure since the start of the war?

Bofferbrau explained it well, as this 70K will be what have left this year alone according to their projections.  Here is the full report that the micro-post is referring to:

https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/silent-exodus-rising-desertions-in 

and the TL/DR summary at the end if you like:

"There are no signs yet of an outright collapse, but the strain is clear. Moscow still manages to meet recruitment quotas, though increasingly by drawing on coerced pools: detainees, pre-trial arrestees, and others with scant freedom to refuse. Add in mounting battlefield fatigue, and the quality of Russia’s ranks is slipping. The longer a war drags on, the more fatigued soldiers become - and the more they seek ways to reclaim their lives. Concerns about family, children, and the simple desire for normalcy often drive AWOL and desertion, a factor frequently overlooked when analyzing the numbers. War may dominate the battlefield, but it doesn’t pause life at home.

The numbers remain short of crisis levels. Still, the surge in desertions, even under threats of severe punishment, including reports of extrajudicial executions, underscores a larger problem. What appears contained today could soon grow into a more serious fracture within the army."



shavenferret said:
SecondWar said:

For context, is that figure since the start of the war?

Bofferbrau explained it well, as this 70K will be what have left this year alone according to their projections.  Here is the full report that the micro-post is referring to:

https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/silent-exodus-rising-desertions-in 

and the TL/DR summary at the end if you like:

"There are no signs yet of an outright collapse, but the strain is clear. Moscow still manages to meet recruitment quotas, though increasingly by drawing on coerced pools: detainees, pre-trial arrestees, and others with scant freedom to refuse. Add in mounting battlefield fatigue, and the quality of Russia’s ranks is slipping. The longer a war drags on, the more fatigued soldiers become - and the more they seek ways to reclaim their lives. Concerns about family, children, and the simple desire for normalcy often drive AWOL and desertion, a factor frequently overlooked when analyzing the numbers. War may dominate the battlefield, but it doesn’t pause life at home.

The numbers remain short of crisis levels. Still, the surge in desertions, even under threats of severe punishment, including reports of extrajudicial executions, underscores a larger problem. What appears contained today could soon grow into a more serious fracture within the army."

I think it has more to say about the quality of the recruits.

An increasing amount of Russians who sign up actually either don't have anything to lose or want to provide for their family, like parents, aunt/uncle, nephew/niece, and so on - but are mostly unmarried themselves. They care about the sign-up bonus going to their family, and that's about it. They don't care much about the war itself. They don't really have a will to fight, they just want the money.

William Spaniel made a good analysis of this:



Bofferbrauer2 said:
shavenferret said:

Bofferbrau explained it well, as this 70K will be what have left this year alone according to their projections.  Here is the full report that the micro-post is referring to:

https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/silent-exodus-rising-desertions-in 

and the TL/DR summary at the end if you like:

"There are no signs yet of an outright collapse, but the strain is clear. Moscow still manages to meet recruitment quotas, though increasingly by drawing on coerced pools: detainees, pre-trial arrestees, and others with scant freedom to refuse. Add in mounting battlefield fatigue, and the quality of Russia’s ranks is slipping. The longer a war drags on, the more fatigued soldiers become - and the more they seek ways to reclaim their lives. Concerns about family, children, and the simple desire for normalcy often drive AWOL and desertion, a factor frequently overlooked when analyzing the numbers. War may dominate the battlefield, but it doesn’t pause life at home.

The numbers remain short of crisis levels. Still, the surge in desertions, even under threats of severe punishment, including reports of extrajudicial executions, underscores a larger problem. What appears contained today could soon grow into a more serious fracture within the army."

I think it has more to say about the quality of the recruits.

An increasing amount of Russians who sign up actually either don't have anything to lose or want to provide for their family, like parents, aunt/uncle, nephew/niece, and so on - but are mostly unmarried themselves. They care about the sign-up bonus going to their family, and that's about it. They don't care much about the war itself. They don't really have a will to fight, they just want the money.

William Spaniel made a good analysis of this:

Yep, and thankfully they have run through the good candidates by now, and are having to get the worse ones.  Ukraine will appreciate having to fight soldiers that are older/ more unreliable.