Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[shavenferret]

Bofferbrauer2 said:

shavenferret said:

Bofferbrau explained it well, as this 70K will be what have left this year alone according to their projections.  Here is the full report that the micro-post is referring to:

https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/silent-exodus-rising-desertions-in 

and the TL/DR summary at the end if you like:

"There are no signs yet of an outright collapse, but the strain is clear. Moscow still manages to meet recruitment quotas, though increasingly by drawing on coerced pools: detainees, pre-trial arrestees, and others with scant freedom to refuse. Add in mounting battlefield fatigue, and the quality of Russia’s ranks is slipping. The longer a war drags on, the more fatigued soldiers become - and the more they seek ways to reclaim their lives. Concerns about family, children, and the simple desire for normalcy often drive AWOL and desertion, a factor frequently overlooked when analyzing the numbers. War may dominate the battlefield, but it doesn’t pause life at home.

The numbers remain short of crisis levels. Still, the surge in desertions, even under threats of severe punishment, including reports of extrajudicial executions, underscores a larger problem. What appears contained today could soon grow into a more serious fracture within the army."

I think it has more to say about the quality of the recruits.

An increasing amount of Russians who sign up actually either don't have anything to lose or want to provide for their family, like parents, aunt/uncle, nephew/niece, and so on - but are mostly unmarried themselves. They care about the sign-up bonus going to their family, and that's about it. They don't care much about the war itself. They don't really have a will to fight, they just want the money.

William Spaniel made a good analysis of this:

Yep, and thankfully they have run through the good candidates by now, and are having to get the worse ones.  Ukraine will appreciate having to fight soldiers that are older/ more unreliable.