They would probably assess whether its hurts the US more than them, which it likely would. It would likely cause an economic shock on the scale of 2022 when Russia first attacked Ukraine, which could do similar damage to the US economy and also potentially Trump politically whilst also disrupting his tariff plans.

Iran could then sell less ofmits oil for for, which offsets it a bit.

Iran can bypass the Straight of Hormuz



But US will likely bomb Jask Port in retaliation. 

It will hurt the gulf states the most, next to driving up gas prices world wide.

Well I will take the win. Getting rid of one of Russias biggest supporters or at least severely crippling them is more important in the long run, especially if their plans of acquiring nuclear weapons get thwarted.
The impacts of higher oil prices will only be temporary, since either the war will end now that Israel and the USA have achieved their goals or, if the Iranian regime tries to do something foolish like a blockade of the strait, the USA and the neighboring OPEC states will bomb the shit out of them, making it crumble overnight. So if the regime has any sense of self preservation and doesn't want a Syria 2.0 to happen, they will take the L and move on.

In the end this is what we wanted 2 1/2 years ago and now we are finally getting it. Not for the reasons we would have wished, but nevertheless...

You need to remember thatIran, particularly the religious leaders, don’t have the same outlook on life as we do.

And blockade the Strait would typically involve either mining it or sinking ships, neither of which can be cleared easily or quickly. OPEC states will no bomb Iran. They will not want to get involved in the US’s war and they certainly won’t want to fight in Israel’s side as that would forment unrest in their own countries.

And if the US does ‘bomb the shit out of it’, then it will,likely cause a similar situation to what happened in Iraq post 2003, which I doubt is on Trump’s agenda.

It doesn't change much for Ukraine on the battlefield, Iran was a big supporter of Russia at the start but things like Shahed drones are now produced domestically in Russia itself, at high numbers and Russia has even improved the drones in some areas, they've optimised production and don't really need Iran anymore for drones, from a military standpoint I don't think it will hurt Russia much.

I don't want Iran to have nukes but this is the wrong way to go about it and guarantees that Iran will never stop seeking out nukes now, it's hypocritical that Russia has nukes and is currently trying to slaughter a country who surrendered its nukes for protection from America/UK/Russia which it never received. It's hypocritical that Israel isn't a part of the NPT and has nukes and is currently slaughtering Palestinians. Pakistan and India both have nukes and aren't exactly led by stable leaders. North Korea too. America bombs the shit out of the Middle-East like its a hobby and has nukes. The only deterrent in the world is nukes, more countries will be seeking nukes in the future because we fucked up.

USA and Israel haven't achieved their goals, they destroyed mostly empty facilities and Iran was nowhere near producing a nuke, now they will try to speed things up, Israel and Iran immediately went back to bombing each other the next day, the war isn't finished yet just because America slapped Iran and then ran away and said "please don't hit me back" and there is zero chance the OPEC states will bomb the shit out of Iran when Iran has missiles which can reach almost all of them and many of those countries also have a dislike of Israel too.

You can't do regime change via aerial bombardments only, mentioning Syria only supports that fact, Syria was in a civil war for over 10 years which America was involved in for multiple years, in the end Syria achieved regime change only via rebellion on the ground from Syrian natives and that was from a group which America until recently considered an enemy/terrorist and weren't even the ones America was backing. Syria got a little lucky (? - Pending Results) but most "bomb the shit out of them and hope for the best" end up with some other crazy bastard taking over.

Meanwhile 10s of thousands of anti-drone missiles were taken from Ukraine and diverted to Middle-East...

As the world focuses on the escalating war between Israel and Iran, the war in Ukraine has not paused. Russia continues its brutal campaign, targeting civilians. These images, taken and shared with us by volunteer Jana, show the aftermath of recent strikes in Pokrovsk area

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— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 23 June 2025 at 01:24

Low-key I am becoming a little frustrated that my usual sources for Ukraine news and now spamming Iran-Israel news in their feeds, so I have to scroll past literally dozens of Iran-Israel posts to see any Ukraine news, this is even from Ukrainian sources, I understand why they hate Iran, I also hate the Iranian regime, but I feel like we're becoming a little distracted away from Ukraine.

Crude oil prices have been climbing steadily since May, nearing the $80 per barrel, driven by escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran in the Middle East - a key oil-exporting region. If the trend holds, it could boost Russia’s economy and help sustain its war effort

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— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 23 June 2025 at 03:18

I don't think that this will be a long conflict.  Trump needs to show who is boss for a bit and he'll quiet down.  Israel will as well.  

Russia has localized production of Shahed drones and modernized them long time ago. They don't need Iran for drone production. Most of imported missiles are Korean. In 2025, the supplies from Iran are very marginal

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 23 June 2025 at 06:46

Hope so, it feels like Russia is going to benefit the most from it even despite losing an ally. Best case scenario is both Israel and Iran quiet down, Israel doesn't have an unlimited supply of interceptor missiles, they will hopefully say "mission accomplished" before that happens and they will both stop bombing each other, that's the best case scenario.