Biggerboat1 said:
Ryuu96 said:
The only "negative for Russia" thing I could say is that Iran is about to be yet another Russian ally that Russia is not going to lift a finger to help and completely abandon, following Assad/Syria last year, and their own CSTO ally Armenia, Russia continually abandoning allies is not going to be good for them in the long term, it's going to isolate them further. Doesn't really help Ukraine at all right now though, the only major thing Iran supplies Russia is drones and artillery, the latter Iran doesn't need for Israel and the former is something Russia produces domestically now and likely in numbers which exceeds Iran's own capability, they don't need Iran for the drones anymore. Meanwhile Europe's attention may end up being split between Ukraine/Middle-East if things escalate because Europe is dumb as fuck and if Iran closes the strait then oil prices will soar which will hugely benefit Russia. |
I'm hearing a few commentators say that blocking the straight would also stop Iran from exporting their oil to China which is a key part of their income. I guess balancing the books will go out the window though if Iran's regime thinks that the conflict has become existential.
We can only hope that some form of negotiations re-emerge, but I get the impression that Israel doesn't want any deescalation and they seem to completely have Trump's number. |
They would probably assess whether its hurts the US more than them, which it likely would. It would likely cause an economic shock on the scale of 2022 when Russia first attacked Ukraine, which could do similar damage to the US economy and also potentially Trump politically whilst also disrupting his tariff plans.
Iran could then sell less ofmits oil for for, which offsets it a bit.
