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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

RolStoppable said:
Ryuu96 said:

(...)

Lend-Lease?

Just to say, I don't think they'll win by the end of the year, it's a bit optimistic, I'm more curious about what is happening in August.

August is the updated target date for the start of Ukraine's large scale counter-offensive (previously it was June). Western weapons as well as Ukrainian personnel who are able to use them should be deployed to the battlefields by then.

It really sounds like they are planning a coordinated strategy where Russians will get hit hard in different crucial areas simultaneously, making them unable to defend themselves sufficiently. Given that the military spending of NATO nations has been heavily outpacing Russia for many decades, Western weapons should be far more efficient than their Russian counterparts.

Predicting the end of the war sure is a difficult task, but when Ukraine managed to hold back Russia with first and foremost old weapons so far, then optimism for turning the tide of the war with modern weapons isn't misplaced. Morale continues to be in favor of Ukraine anyway.

The greatest challenge for Ukraine remains the huge disparity in artillery vis-à-vis Russian forces, not to mention the Russian air force. Even though it was never going to happen, the only equaliser would have been NATO's aviation enforcing a no-fly zone. 

As it stands, Ukraine is on the verge of losing the entirety of the Lugansk oblast that will free up thousands of Russian forces. The unfortunate thing for the Ukrainians is that it appears to be too late to withdraw from Lysychansk without being hit hard by Russian artillery and aviation. I would have thought that the Ukrainian leadership would have ordered troops to withdraw and reinforce a defensive line around the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk line but I guess the aim is to delay the Russians for as long as possible in Lugansk.



 

 

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Branko2166 said:

As it stands, Ukraine is on the verge of losing the entirety of the Lugansk oblast that will free up thousands of Russian forces. The unfortunate thing for the Ukrainians is that it appears to be too late to withdraw from Lysychansk without being hit hard by Russian artillery and aviation. I would have thought that the Ukrainian leadership would have ordered troops to withdraw and reinforce a defensive line around the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk line but I guess the aim is to delay the Russians for as long as possible in Lugansk.

I don't know man, to me it looked like Russia wanted to encircle and cut off Severodonetsk & Lysychansk but haven't been able to. Ukrainians are able to fall back which isn't something Russia would want to happen and they've probably taken heavy losses attacking Severodonetsk directly.



I just realized this has been going on for 4 months already, so depressing :(



Ryuu96 said:

Yeah, exactly. ‘liberators’ my a***.



Well played by Turkey. Predictable, but well played. Doesn’t matter though; Sweden and Finland joining is more important at this time.



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I’m actually sad for the YPG. The Kurds can’t get a break :(

There’s a lot of bullshit that happened in that war. European volunteers that helped them deal with ISIS/Daesh, then having to flee to South America because Turkey and Western governments declared them terrorists.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 30 June 2022

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

So I don't have a link as it being reported in live newsfeeds, but looks like Russia have abandoned Snake Island in the face of repeated Ukrainian strikes on the strategic location.

Symbolic victory for Ukraine as the island was one of the first places to fall to the Russian invasion, and the infamous incident with the (now sunken) Moskva being told told go f*** itself. Strategically, I'm not sure how this plays out with the Russian blockade and the practicalities given the islands' vulnerability to Russia's Black Sea Fleet. But still, a notable development in Ukraine's favour.

Note- Russia is saying it is a 'goodwill gesture' to facilitate grain exports and asks that Ukraine demine its costal waters. Errr....what? Everyone with ahlf a brain knows what Russia would immediately do if Ukraine did that. Russia may claim they won't attack Odessa but they've proven repeatedly that you can't take them at their word.



Sounds like the soldiers in Lysychansk are threatened by the same fate as those from Mariupol or Hirske a week ago. Seems like Russia took over the oil refinery or will do so in the next hours/days and from there it isn't much to stop them to reach their forces north from it. Those assholes will just wait until those in Lysychansk have no bullets/food/water anymore and have to give up.

Yesterday our minister of defense was yet again like "no we can't send Leopard 2 tanks because uhm ohh uhmmm" and still acting as if some defensive systems for air strikes and a few Howitzers are enough. They might be great as well but it's sad to know that Ukraine could be in a much better position since months already with better tanks and some other weaponry. 

Last edited by crissindahouse - on 30 June 2022

Thank you Ryuu96 for your continued contribution, really appreciate it



Jumpin said:

I’m actually sad for the YPG. The Kurds can’t get a break :(

There’s a lot of bullshit that happened in that war. European volunteers that helped them deal with ISIS/Daesh, then having to flee to South America because Turkey and Western governments declared them terrorists.

Yes, this is the first macroscopic proof of the really awful side effects of Putin's megalomania: he thinks (or maybe he thought, now he could have understood, but he's prisoner of his own actions) this war made him and Russia stronger, but actually it made them weaker, and while the West is suffering too, the global effect is of making Merdogan stronger and able to get away with bullying other countries and even attacking them as long as he keeps a profile low enough. And the even worse effect is that in the mid and long term China too will become stronger, and this is an even bigger problem than Turkey.
But for what a more long-sightedness of the West could have preventedd easier, be damned the day Turkey joined NATO. Since then the whole alliance has already been forced to accept unacceptable actions by Turkey many times: Northern Cyprus invasion and thwarting the legitimate right of Kurdistan to become a state are the most shameful ones, not to mention Merdogan's relentless attempts to destroy Atatürk's reforms.



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