Make no mistake, the talks about "Zelensky not being nice to Trump" coming from US officials are a farce. Unfortunately, the Russians have presented the US with a list of demands outlining how they envision Ukraine's future. While I can't publish the list, I can say a few things:

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 19:58

it closely resembles the early versions of the Istanbul agreement, and it's likely to leak soon. When the US started to follow some of the points from these demands, I have serious doubts that if Zelensky bows to Trump, it will make any difference.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 19:58

Le Monde published an article titled "Without the US, Ukraine Would Barely Last Six Months Against Russia." My readers know that I have been accurate in most of my frontline assessments, to the point that some call me a pessimist, so it's hard to accuse me of painting a rosy picture for Ukraine

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— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 18:58

2/ That being said, the claim made in this article is incorrect and does not reflect the reality on the ground. Since 2024, the vast majority of frontline losses are inflicted by drones, which are produced domestically using locally manufactured or imported components, from countries like China

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 18:58

3/ ISTAR capabilities are largely covered by short- and long-range reconnaissance drones. While I won’t publicly go into full detail about strengths and weaknesses, the bottom line is that U.S. military aid is important and highly beneficial, but it won't result in battlefield collapse.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 18:58

4/ As long as financial support from the EU continues, statements about a six-month collapse are nothing more than doomsday speculation based on a lack of understanding of battlefield dynamics. Would the loss of U.S. aid make the situation more difficult for Ukrainian forces? Yes.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 18:58

5/ Would it lead to total collapse in six months? No. It would mean more Ukrainian soldiers and civilians killed, especially as air defense stocks deplete, but on the battlefield, there would be no sudden collapse, thus such claims are irresponsible.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 18:58

Lukashenko: "We don't know what the US wants. I am saying this because I am well informed about these issues. We don't know what they will demand from the Russians in exchange for ending the war and so on. It seems to me that they will try to pit the Russians against the Chinese. The Russians cannot allow this to happen."

If Trump admin thinks they can pit the Russians against the Chinese they're dumber than I thought possible.

🚨 U.S. & Russian participants have held quiet, unofficial talks in Switzerland about the Ukraine war in recent months, including last week. While attendees have diplomatic and security experience, they are not officials. Some Trump advisers are aware of the meetings.

www.reuters.com/world/americ...

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 21 February 2025 at 08:43

My warmest greetings go out to the wonderful people who built their careers sniffing out “Ukrainian Nazis” under every stone in Ukraine for tasty headlines that fueled Russian war propaganda on this-is-why-Ukraine-must-be-dealt-with, only to get Nazi salutes normalized in their own country.

— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) 21 February 2025 at 07:28

🇫🇷🆙 Macron is considering increasing France's military spending from 2.1% to 5% of GDP, — Franceinfo

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— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) 21 February 2025 at 12:17

President Macron:

"Russia is already aggressive towards the whole of Europe.It's started.It's got a strong army,it's attacking us on information,cyber,migration.I can mention other things.It's destabilizing us,it's attacking our interests in Africa,it's provoking us,testing us at sea,in the air"

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— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) 21 February 2025 at 10:09

All America’s allies know that Trump is trapped in a disinformation bubble, but Zelenskyy said it out loud

Ukraine completes development of domestic equivalent of Russian Lancet drone – photos | Ukrainska Pravda

Four days before launching the full scale invasion of Ukraine.

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— SPRAVDI - Stratcom Centre (@stratcomcentre.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 12:16

As the day marking three years of Russia’s full-scale invasion nears, let the world remember what we faced.

February 24, 2022, northern Kyiv, locals watched as wave after wave of Russian helicopters bombed, deployed troops, attempting to make us part of the Russian world.

— SPRAVDI - Stratcom Centre (@stratcomcentre.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 10:17

If Ukrainians never thought to surrender even in those darkest hours, why would anyone think we would surrender now?

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— SPRAVDI - Stratcom Centre (@stratcomcentre.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 10:17

Der Spiegel cover 👀🇺🇦

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— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) 21 February 2025 at 16:36

Trump to abandon Russia war crimes prosecution

Ukraine Fact Sheet - February 21, 2025: isw.pub/UkraineFacts...

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— Institute for the Study of War (@thestudyofwar.bsky.social) 21 February 2025 at 19:40

Another collapse of opinion. Trump claims Zelensky doesn't need to attend peace negotiations since his presence isn't crucial. Meanwhile, he insists that Putin could have seized all of Ukraine if he truly wanted to. According to Trump, the war in Ukraine isn't Russia's fault at all.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) 21 February 2025 at 17:20

⚡️Trump's Ukraine remarks 'shocking,' echo Russian narratives, German opposition leader says.

German opposition leader Friedrich Merz has criticized Donald Trump's statements about Ukraine, calling them "shocking" and aligned with Russian narratives.

kyivindependent.com/trumps-ukrai...

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) 21 February 2025 at 21:16

If some countries opt out, the package will not be structured under the "EU umbrella" but rather as a "coalition of the willing", with a joint fund allowing member states to contribute voluntarily through financial or military assistance.

EU to propose major military aid package for Ukraine on Monday | Ukrainska Pravda

• Ukraine can make weaponry "faster and cheaper" than elsewhere in Europe, Denmark's prime minister said.
• "We have a problem, friends, if a country at war can produce faster than the rest of us," Mette Frederiksen said at the Munich Security Conference.
• Europe's defense spending has soared in recent years, but problems remain.

Ukraine Makes Weapons 'Faster and Cheaper' Than Rest of Europe: Danish PM - Business Insider

Ironically, in this farcical negotiation, Ukraine is not the biggest loser. Kyiv saw US military aid dwindle, and has ramped up its own weapons production while turning to Europe for additional support. Ukraine today is in a far better position than it was three years ago. It will fight on – with or without Washington.

The real loser is the US. Trump is trading Washington's global standing for the amusement of Putin and his cronies and the bewilderment of US allies. The world is watching as the US president parrots the rhetoric of one of his country's biggest adversaries. The long-term damage to the US and international security may be greater than he understands.

Trump says he will end the war in Ukraine – but how, and who will benefit? Our panel responds

I and others have long argued that the $330bn in Russian central bank assets immobilized in Western jurisdictions should be transferred to Ukraine, to fund arms purchases and for recovery and reconstruction. The funds, in cash, are readily available in Western banking systems and could be available to Ukraine at the push of a button. Morally, it is unarguable that the aggressor, Russia, should pay. Indeed, why should Western taxpayers fork out to cover the cost of Putin's war?

Unfortunately, the ECB and its allies at some European Treasuries have doggedly blocked the move over the past three years. They have constantly made excuses as to why this should not happen. Pivotal to this is the argument that seizure of the $200bn or more in Europe would damage confidence in the euro as a reserve currency. There is zero evidence to support this. There was barely any movement of assets following immobilization in 2022, which made absolutely clear that the assets of aggressors would be put beyond their reach.

Humble the Bankers and Give Russia’s Cash to Ukraine - CEPA

The first is to exclude investment in defense from the bloc’s fiscal rules, which broadly limit government borrowing to 3% of GDP.

A second option, then, is for European governments to borrow collectively to finance a one-off investment in defense capacity, as French President Emmanuel Macron has suggested.

Finally, the third option is to expand the scope of European Investment Bank lending. While the EIB can already finance dual-use (civilian/military) projects, such as those producing drones and satellites, 19 EU governments recently suggested that it should also be permitted to finance wholly military spending, such as investments in tank and ammunition manufacturing.

Rearmament without the US: three mechanisms to secure additional defense funding for Europe | European Pravda

I repeat: Article Five is not worth much under these people. Act accordingly. “Vance on Thursday night suggested that the Trump admin could reconsider its military presence in Germany, tying continued…defense commitments to Berlin’s stance on free speech” www.politico.eu/article/vanc...

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) 21 February 2025 at 14:46

One day the US is going to discover how difficult & expensive it is to project military power around the world without the benefit of enormous bases and logistical hubs in Germany.

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) 21 February 2025 at 14:48

This is an excellent and timely factsheet on Ukraine, U.S. v. European security assistance, and other misunderstood or lied about aspects of the war, by our friends at @thestudyofwar.bsky.social. I'll summarize a few main points below, with additional sources of my own:

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— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss.bsky.social) 22 February 2025 at 06:50

Russia's advances have slowed considerably in the last few months. It was taking, on average, 28 sq km per day in November; it took 16 sq km in January. Why is this?

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss.bsky.social) 22 February 2025 at 06:50

Russians are suffering severe manpower and equipment losses and Ukraine is causing them greater pain with its fleet of domestically sourced FPV drones, which now include fiber-optic wire-guided drones to evade electronic warfare.

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss.bsky.social) 22 February 2025 at 06:50

Such is the state of Russia's army, its soldiers are now using donkeys to transport ammunition to the frontlines: independent.co.uk/news/world/e...

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— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss.bsky.social) 22 February 2025 at 06:50

Of course, Russia still has its own formidable capabilities and advantages on the battlefield, especially in glide bombs and drones: it, too, deploys fiber-optic wire-guided FPVs.

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss.bsky.social) 22 February 2025 at 06:50

But, as @Jack_Watling , one of the best military analysts of the war has noted, the "Russian military is massively underperforming, largely because of the poor quality of its [third big advantage] infantry and a lack of lower-level command and control." theguardian.com/world/2025/f...

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— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss.bsky.social) 22 February 2025 at 06:50

ISW: "Europe has provided and pledged approximately $204.1 billion in all — over $174 billion from the EU, $13.9 billion from Norway, and $16.2 billion from the UK — compared to America's $183 billion."

On the matter of what the U.S. spends...

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss.bsky.social) 22 February 2025 at 06:50

ISW: "The majority of the funds the United States has allocated for Ukraine stays in the United States to fund domestic defense industrial base and replenish US stockpiles."

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— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss.bsky.social) 22 February 2025 at 06:50

Tl;dr: Most of the money gets spent at home creating new arsenals for the U.S. military (to compensate for the aged or expired-but still-viable stockpiles of kit donated to Ukraine), building weapons factories and employing thousands of American workers.

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— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss.bsky.social) 22 February 2025 at 06:50

In other words, Donald Trump's wholly imaginary claim that "half" of what the U.S. has spent on Ukraine since the full-scale invasion has been stolen would, if true, mean that the real den of thieves was operating right here in the United States.

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— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss.bsky.social) 22 February 2025 at 06:50

🚫🇺🇦🇺🇸 Zelensky is not ready to accept a minerals deal with the US as Ukraine sees a "number of problematic issues" with the draft agreement, - Sky News

"Today, the drafts do not reflect a partnership in the agreement and contain only unilateral commitments by Ukraine."

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— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) 22 February 2025 at 11:00

Another sabotage attempt onboard German Navy ship under investigation

The frigate Hessen,currently in port in Lower Saxony,was allegedly tampered with- someone tried to contaminate its fresh water supply with waste oil

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— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) 22 February 2025 at 13:22

I think the biggest loss for Ukraine if the US won't send anything anymore would be missiles for the Patriot air defense systems. Anything else can be pretty easily replaced by European weapons systems, but Patriot missile launchers will have a very hard time getting replacements in the same domain.

Thankfully, Ukraine doesn't need many long-range Air-defense systems right now, what's needed are short-range systems to combat drones, not long-range systems to defeat cruise missiles, helicopters and planes. And for those, Europe is sending stuff, especially Germany right now.