Make no mistake, the talks about "Zelensky not being nice to Trump" coming from US officials are a farce. Unfortunately, the Russians have presented the US with a list of demands outlining how they envision Ukraine's future. While I can't publish the list, I can say a few things:
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 19:58
it closely resembles the early versions of the Istanbul agreement, and it's likely to leak soon. When the US started to follow some of the points from these demands, I have serious doubts that if Zelensky bows to Trump, it will make any difference.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 19:58
Le Monde published an article titled "Without the US, Ukraine Would Barely Last Six Months Against Russia." My readers know that I have been accurate in most of my frontline assessments, to the point that some call me a pessimist, so it's hard to accuse me of painting a rosy picture for Ukraine
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 18:58
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2/ That being said, the claim made in this article is incorrect and does not reflect the reality on the ground. Since 2024, the vast majority of frontline losses are inflicted by drones, which are produced domestically using locally manufactured or imported components, from countries like China
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 18:58
3/ ISTAR capabilities are largely covered by short- and long-range reconnaissance drones. While I won’t publicly go into full detail about strengths and weaknesses, the bottom line is that U.S. military aid is important and highly beneficial, but it won't result in battlefield collapse.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 18:58
4/ As long as financial support from the EU continues, statements about a six-month collapse are nothing more than doomsday speculation based on a lack of understanding of battlefield dynamics. Would the loss of U.S. aid make the situation more difficult for Ukrainian forces? Yes.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 18:58
5/ Would it lead to total collapse in six months? No. It would mean more Ukrainian soldiers and civilians killed, especially as air defense stocks deplete, but on the battlefield, there would be no sudden collapse, thus such claims are irresponsible.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 20 February 2025 at 18:58
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