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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

They should release Pokémon gold and silver remakes on Switch



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The Switch's final holiday season as Nintendo's main system would be an awfully good time to release a new Donkey Kong game.

Just sayin'



With the last batch of rumors/leaks/speculation that Switch2 will arrive in Q1 2025, I'm surprised we had no direct yet to fill in the Summer period. Perhaps next week, but that is rumored to be a partner direct.



javi741 said:

So now we have a more reliable source Eurogamer saying Switch 2 is a Q1 2025 release, which imo could play a big role in pushing the Switch past PS2 sales, now the Switch has a possibility of 1 more Holiday quarter to sell and possibly another holiday title to keep in relevant, maybe a new Pokemon remake or gen. We have to remember the DS still had a huge 8M unit holiday quarter in the quarter just before 3DS launched.

Interesting, but it makes sense. Switch had strong sales in 2023, so there's no rush to replace it within 2024. Simultaneously, a delayed Switch successor launch will give every developer more time to finish their games, especially important for Nintendo themselves to create a 2025 lineup that rivals Switch's 2017, because success should not be taken for granted. It needs to be earned all over again.

Switch will certainly not have an 8m holiday quarter in 2024, but 10m+ for the whole calendar year would be a lock after shipping 16m+ in calendar year 2023. That in turn would push Switch's LTD above 150m by the end of 2024.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

If true that the Switch 2 ends up releasing in Q1 2025, I do see there being a good chance of Switch beating PS2 and reaching 160m. It could end 2024 above 150m. It would definitely be beneficial to have a price drop this year (probably announced earlier in the year so that the holidays could have bundles with the reduced price). Something like this:

Switch Lite: $150

Switch: $250 (potentially just get rid of it and leave just the Switch Lite & Switch OLED)

Switch OLED: $300

And then for the holidays imagine a $300 Switch OLED with MK 8 DX & 3 month NSO membership! They could also bring back the Nintendo Selects Line for titles permanently dropped to $40 (perhaps lower with temporary holiday deals).



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Torpoleon said:

If true that the Switch 2 ends up releasing in Q1 2025, I do see there being a good chance of Switch beating PS2 and reaching 160m. It could end 2024 above 150m. It would definitely be beneficial to have a price drop this year (probably announced earlier in the year so that the holidays could have bundles with the reduced price). Something like this:

Switch Lite: $150

Switch: $250 (potentially just get rid of it and leave just the Switch Lite & Switch OLED)

Switch OLED: $300

And then for the holidays imagine a $300 Switch OLED with MK 8 DX & 3 month NSO membership! They could also bring back the Nintendo Selects Line for titles permanently dropped to $40 (perhaps lower with temporary holiday deals).

Honestly after so many years of no price cuts, I'm not sure if they are gonna do one now just to pass PS2 Lol.

But even without a price cut they are gonna hit 148-150 million by the end of the year.



The delay isn't a full year is it? Isn't it only a 1 quarter delay?



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

DroidKnight said:

The delay isn't a full year is it? Isn't it only a 1 quarter delay?

There is no delay.

There were rumors that the successor would launch either in Sept, Oct, or Nov of 2024. Now there are rumors of it launching in Spring 2025.
I'm happy that my guestimation lines up with the Spring 2025 rumor. 

Each month it should sell ~700k-900k units until the end of Sept. Then in Q3 it will sell around 5.5-6M units. By the end of 2024 the Switch will be at 152M total shipped.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:
DroidKnight said:

The delay isn't a full year is it? Isn't it only a 1 quarter delay?

There is no delay.

There were rumors that the successor would launch either in Sept, Oct, or Nov of 2024. Now there are rumors of it launching in Spring 2025.
I'm happy that my guestimation lines up with the Spring 2025 rumor. 

Each month it should sell ~700k-900k units until the end of Sept. Then in Q3 it will sell around 5.5-6M units. By the end of 2024 the Switch will be at 152M total shipped.

There might be an internal delay, sure Switch launched in March 2017, and not Fall, but that was after the failure of Wii U, they did not want to wait any longer.

But Switch is already 7 years old in 2 weeks, so I would expect November 2024 launch this time not Spring 2025.

Btw. Who else wants to see GTA V as a launch day title on the Switch 2?

Last edited by Radek - on 17 February 2024

Radek said:
Shtinamin_ said:

There is no delay.

There were rumors that the successor would launch either in Sept, Oct, or Nov of 2024. Now there are rumors of it launching in Spring 2025.
I'm happy that my guestimation lines up with the Spring 2025 rumor. 

Each month it should sell ~700k-900k units until the end of Sept. Then in Q3 it will sell around 5.5-6M units. By the end of 2024 the Switch will be at 152M total shipped.

There might be an internal delay, sure Switch launched in March 2017, and not Fall, but that was after the failure of Wii U, they did not want to wait any longer.

But Switch is already 7 years old in 2 weeks, so I would expect November 2024 launch this time not Spring 2025.

Btw. Who else wants to see GTA V as a launch day title on the Switch 2?

Rumors are rumors, speculation, and don't have any foundation no matter where or who it's from.
An announcement is factual. If Nintendo said that they planned to release the successor in Sept, Oct, or Nov of 2025 and moved the date back to Spring 2025 then yes that would be a delay. However, they have never said that and in fact still havent said anything so no, there is no delay. Those be the facts.

A Spring release actually brought a huge boost in sales for the year. Because you get the hard core fans in the beginning launch window, they talk it up, and word of mouth spread selling ~3M or more in 1 month alone. Then after all the hype and releases of games, and positive reviews he parents all buy their kids the new tech, or game. And Nintendo was able to get the stock necessary to ensure that if people wanted it, they can easily purchase it. Which will sell ~7M in the holiday season. Guaranteeing 10M sold from 4 months, compared to a Sept, Oct, Nov release.
A Sept, Oct, Nov release would cause Nintendo to have the make sure they have around 8-12M units in stock, otherwise they will be in the same predicament as Sony is with the PS5 (especially during COVID-19 lockdowns). Nintendo wants to make smart business decisions and a Spring release actually benefits more than a holiday release.

Personally I dont want any GTA on a family-friendly console. I honestly dislike the GTA franchise, so no I do not want to see GTAV as a launch day title on the Nintendo successor.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.