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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Zippy6 on 14 December 2023
javi741 said:

The sales analysts in U.S & Europe stated that the lack of Pokemon really hurt the Switch in November, makes sense. When you have the fastest selling exclusive in history launch in November last year compared to a much more niche game like Mario RPG you should expect bigger declines. That's why I'm not expecting December to be as big of a decline. Nevertheless, if the Switch's entire holiday sales are down 35% compared to last year the Switch will only sell 5.3M, far lower than the general expectation here of 6-7 Million and the Switch's worst holiday quarter yet.

Yes I would be shocked if December was even close to as big a decline. I'm guessing the December YoY drop will be less than 20%.



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Tober on 14 December 2023

Some ideas to get to 160+M

1) The Switch2 will be branded as part of the Switch family like Gameboy - Gameboy Colour and simply keeps adding sales. It will run all Switch games plus 'Super' Switch games.

2) If Switch2 is branded as a new generation, introduce a Switch mini/pocket as a new affordable entry model ($100-$150) to replace the Switch lite model. With a mountain of 3DS games to port plus indie games, there will still be a lot of new content to offer going forward.

3) Switch2 does not arrive in 2024 and next year discount all the models by at least $50

That is just my 2 cents.



Shtinamin_ on 14 December 2023
Garrus said:

Nintendo always makes the same mistakes. They hold on too long to their platforms. They should have had the Switch 2 out this holiday season, it would have been 6.5 years old, more than long enough. Not surprisingly the sales will have collapsed by the time the 8th year of sales starts in March.

What are you talking about, I will name some examples of other companies holding on to other consoles. And then I will explain Nintendo's game plan regarding the Switch.

PS3: sold for 7 years before the PS4
PS4: sold for 7 years before the PS5
PS5: will sell for 7 years before the PS6
Xbox 360: sold for 8 years before the Xbox One
Xbox One: sold for 7 years before the Xbox Series X/S
DS: sold for 7 years before the 3DS.

So no, Nintendo is not making a mistake by "holding on too long". 7-8 years is a perfectly normal life cycle.

Nintendo's game plan with the Switch. They are innovating. They made the first successfully support hybrid console. And their goal with the Switch was to rewrite what a life cycle looks like, they planned to have the Switch lifecycle to be near 10 years.

Garrus said:
Zippy6 said:

Based on the YoY numbers we have so far I'm guessing the Switch this November will have sold around 1.8m compared to 2.83m the year before. So globally a YoY decline of around 36%. We'll see when the numbers come out.

I expect December won't be as big of a decline, but then again I didn't expect November in the USA to decline like this for any of the consoles.

Well there was no Pokemon and no Christmas game from Nintendo.

There was a very bad Call of Duty game and nothing new from Sony.

Microsoft is just a mess. They've also destroyed all their sales overseas with large foreign exchange related price increases. Canadians aren't gonna want an Xbox anymore that is for sure.

The one thing that might have helped Sony would have been an awesome PS5 slim but the PS5 slim is terrible.

So altogether seems fair enough, time for a new Nintendo console! My body is ready! Let's go! Nintendo is the only one I really want to buy, they just need good hardware ala Gamecube. RTX 4060 in a box for a change.

Very true, there was no Pokémon, and that was expected. Pokémon comes out with a mainline game every 3 years (and their last meeting speculated that they may slow down with such quick releases). And they produce at least 1-2 smaller games (let's go, remake, dlc) every year. This year was the DLC year. So next year will involve either  Let's Go, a remake, or a Legends. The Christmas game was released in November, Super Mario RPG and the bigger game was released in October, Super Mario Wonder. Those are the holiday games for 2023 from Nintendo.

Call of Duty is still the most sold game in the US, its biggest market.
Sony also had its holiday game release in October, Spider-Man 2.

I hope the companies can see that they need to release a dedicated holiday game if they want to see an increase of sales, and not just coast it to the end of the year like this one.

Also if you've been reading the rumors (and taking them with a grain of salt) you would be hearing about what Nintendo has planned, and apparently the jump for Switch to NG will be huge for Nintendo.

Zippy6 said:
javi741 said:

The sales analysts in U.S & Europe stated that the lack of Pokemon really hurt the Switch in November, makes sense. When you have the fastest selling exclusive in history launch in November last year compared to a much more niche game like Mario RPG you should expect bigger declines. That's why I'm not expecting December to be as big of a decline. Nevertheless, if the Switch's entire holiday sales are down 35% compared to last year the Switch will only sell 5.3M, far lower than the general expectation here of 6-7 Million and the Switch's worst holiday quarter yet.

Yes I would be shocked if December was even close to as big a decline. I'm guessing the December YoY drop will be less than 20%.

Hopefully, the big three see this and make an adjustment for next year to focus on having an exclusive or at least a big seller for the next holiday season. This one seems a bit lackluster. Most of the holiday games came out in October (and our society is too much in the I want it now and give me the next quick mindset). 
I would love to see the Switch pull off a 7M holiday sale. But seeing how things are looking, 5.3 from javi741 seems very reasonable. Jan, and Feb will each sell just shy of a million each, so yes Nintendo will make it to their fiscal target, but only by the hair of their chiny chin chin.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ on 14 December 2023
Tober said:

Some ideas to get to 160+M

1) The Switch2 will be branded as part of the Switch family like Gameboy - Gameboy Colour and simply keeps adding sales. It will run all Switch games plus 'Super' Switch games.

2) If Switch2 is branded as a new generation, introduce a Switch mini/pocket as a new affordable entry model ($100-$150) to replace the Switch lite model. With a mountain of 3DS games to port plus indie games, there will still be a lot of new content to offer going forward.

3) Switch2 does not arrive in 2024 and next year discount all the models by at least $50

That is just my 2 cents.

If the NG is branded as part of the Switch family then The Switch family will easily be able to sell to 200M

The Switch pocket idea is a very reliable one. For after the WiiU, they announced a Mini Wii. 
And I love the idea that it would be able to play 3DS (and maybe DS) games. That would boost sales by a lot.

NG has a lot of signs pointing to September/November of 2024. And they will discount the Switch models once the NG releases. By how much idk, hopefully anywhere from $50-100 each.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

HyrulianScrolls on 14 December 2023
Shtinamin_ said:
HyrulianScrolls said:

I also strongly disagree MP4 can’t breakout of a Metroid’s sales pattern with a real “wow” factor game. It doesn’t need to be open world. Just make it a kickass FPS Metroidvania with graphics and performance on a level never seen before on a Nintendo console. Maybe throw in a multiplayer component that is compelling to showcase what will hopefully be a way better online infrastructure for Switch 2. Boom, possible 10m LT seller.

Especially if Switch 2 has a successful launch. And no I’m not saying they should rely on MP4 for that. Something like Mario Kart 9 would make sense as the system seller, while MP4 rides the hype and momentum train thanks to killer word of mouth.  

Agreed, if Retro Studios is able to make a FUN, game with wonderful things that make it amazing. And local & Online multiplayer. It can sell a couple million very easily.

Nintendo will most likely not be releasing Mario Kart X (so rumors call it) as the launch title. It will most likely be a 3D Mario Adventure, with some other titles of course. Then within a couple of months they will release Mario Kart X. That way they can capitalize on each major game Nintendo has planned for the NG. If you put too many games togehter, a couple will get lost, and not receive the deserved attention and spending.

It’s odd to me how many I’ve seen assume that 3D Mario is a launch title when it’s almost never been the case in Nintendo history. In fact, 6-8 months is by far the most common gap between launch and a new 3D Mario title historically, with it taking all the way up to 1 full year in the case of the Wii. 

Few reasons I think Kart makes way more sense as the big launch title: 1) it’s been literally a decade next year since we got a new one. Even Odyssey isn’t that old. 2) I think Nintendo will try to replicate the Switch launch, meaning March release with a Mario Kart and a “core gamer” killer app (MP4 instead of BotW this time) at launch then 3D Mario for that holiday. Exactly like the Switch launch. And 3) Kart is simply a way bigger seller, Nintendo

will want to do everything they can to get the massive Switch base to start jumping over, which won’t be easy. 



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HyrulianScrolls on 14 December 2023
CourageTCD said:

If Metroid Prime 4 is indeed Switch 2's title launch game, I imagine Nintendo is putting all its effort to make it blow people's mind away. I expect it sells more than any Metroid game yet and be successfull. Not as the same level of a Mario or Zelda game but still a success. Let's not forget 2017 saw a bunch of heavy-hitter game realeases, so it's not like the Switch 2 would rely only on Metroid Prime 4 to be a success console

Yes, exactly this. Imagine how much they can knock people’s socks off with an MP4 taking full advantage of the massive hardware power jump, not restrained by the Switch. If they make it a Switch game at its core, that’s just not gonna do anything to excite non-Metroid fans in 2024 or 2025. It’s a huge mistake imo, they would guarantee Dread sales are pretty much the cap. Whereas going full throttle on a Switch 2 killer app allows it to at least have that Metroid breakout 10m or so potential I mentioned. The risk is so worth it. 



Shtinamin_ on 14 December 2023
HyrulianScrolls said:

It’s odd to me how many I’ve seen assume that 3D Mario is a launch title when it’s almost never been the case in Nintendo history. In fact, 6-8 months is by far the most common gap between launch and a new 3D Mario title historically, with it taking all the way up to 1 full year in the case of the Wii. 

Few reasons I think Kart makes way more sense as the big launch title: 1) it’s been literally a decade next year since we got a new one. Even Odyssey isn’t that old. 2) I think Nintendo will try to replicate the Switch launch, meaning March release with a Mario Kart and a “core gamer” killer app (MP4 instead of BotW this time) at launch then 3D Mario for that holiday. Exactly like the Switch launch. And 3) Kart is simply a way bigger seller, Nintendo will want to do everything they can to get the massive Switch base to start jumping over, which won’t be easy. 

Shtinamin_ said:

In the history of Nintendo, there has only been one console with a launch title that wasn't a Mario-related title or a Legend of Zelda title, and there has never been a Metroid game as a Nintendo console launch title.
Color TV-Game 6- Light Tennis
NES- Super Mario Bros.
SNES- Super Mario World
Nintendo Virtual Boy- Mario's Tennis
Nintendo 64- Super Mario 64
Nintendo Gamecube- Luigi's Mansion
Nintendo Wii- Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess & Wii Sports
Nintendo WiiU- New Super Mario Bros. U
Nintendo Switch- Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild

Out of the handhelds it's been a 50/50:
Gameboy- Super Mario Land
Gameboy Advance- F-Zero Maximum Velocity
DS- Super Mario 64 DS
3DS- Pilotwings: Resort

The first two big game franchises that Nintendo released was Super Mario and Legend of Zelda, those are their babies, hence why we are getting a Legend of Zelda Movie right after the success of the Super Mario Bros. Movie, so based on this I expect to see a huge Legend of Zelda game to come out the same year the movie does (sometime before 2027).
Nintendo won't be returning to a home console and handheld situation, they will be sticking with the hybrid model. And based on the pattern we see from Gamecube to now, I will make the assumption that the launch title for the NG will be a new 3-D Mario Adventure.


Now, Nintendo could do what Nintendo does best and innovate. They could release two or three big Nintendo game franchises at the same time. Metroid Prime 4, 3D Mario Adventure, and Experimental. But the only one that would be recognized as the dedicated launch title will the 3D Mario Adventure.

Firstly, I dont think it's odd at all. 
Nintendo has been alternating their two babies. Breath of the Wild got the Switch Launch for the Switch, New Super Mario Bros U got the WiiU launch, Twilight Princess & Wii Sports got the launch on the Wii, and Luigi's Mansion (Mario-related title) got the launch for the Gamecube.
Therefore according to their trend, the NG will be a Mario Game. I say it wont be Mario Kart X, because rumors have it set to release in 2025 (in the second year of the NG), so it may actually be more closer to a November 2025 release. Farther than what I was arguing for.
And I say it will be a 3D Mario Adventure is because we just had a 2D Mario release.

Secondly, 3D Mario launch titles have been a launch title for 3 out of the 13 consoles. And 3D has only existed since the N64. So 3 out of 8 possible consoles have had a 3D Mario title at their launch. Out of the 3D possible consoles, 6 out of 8 were a 3D launch. So yes, Nintendo is focusing on a 3D Mario Launch Title for the NG. EPD 8, the department in charge of specifically 3D Mario releases games on average every ~1.5 years. Ever since Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury they have been awfully quiet. No game in 2022, no game for 2023. So I make the assumption that they are going to release a game in 2024 (Mario Odyssey was 2019, and Bowser's Fury was 2021). And the NG is rumored to release in 2024. I'm just putting 1+1 together saying that the NG will launch with a 3D Mario game. How many consoles have launched with a racing game? One and it was F-Zero, not even a Mario Kart game (which are some of the best selling Nintendo games).

Thirdly, yes it takes about 9 months on average for every 3D possible console to bring a 3D Mario game to it. 3 launched the consoles, 3 were within the year, and the last one (Mario Odyssey) took 2 years. So then what has EPD been working on since 2021? They just been sitting around doing nothing? No, they have been hard at work innovating the 3D Mario brand, so the NG may launch with a replayable, fun, energetic, and family friendly 3D Mario game for 2024.

Fourth, Mart Kart 8 Deluxe wasn't even a Switch launch title. It was released close to the Switch's debut.

I still stand with my comment being, if you put too many game too close together at the time of a console's launch, many of those games will not get the attention, respect, nor sales they deserve.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Tober on 14 December 2023
Shtinamin_ said:
HyrulianScrolls said:

Shtinamin_ said:

In the history of Nintendo, there has only been one console with a launch title that wasn't a Mario-related title or a Legend of Zelda title, and there has never been a Metroid game as a Nintendo console launch title.
Color TV-Game 6- Light Tennis
NES- Super Mario Bros.
SNES- Super Mario World
Nintendo Virtual Boy- Mario's Tennis
Nintendo 64- Super Mario 64
Nintendo Gamecube- Luigi's Mansion
Nintendo Wii- Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess & Wii Sports
Nintendo WiiU- New Super Mario Bros. U
Nintendo Switch- Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild

Out of the handhelds it's been a 50/50:
Gameboy- Super Mario Land
Gameboy Advance- F-Zero Maximum Velocity
DS- Super Mario 64 DS
3DS- Pilotwings: Resort

The first two big game franchises that Nintendo released was Super Mario and Legend of Zelda, those are their babies, hence why we are getting a Legend of Zelda Movie right after the success of the Super Mario Bros. Movie, so based on this I expect to see a huge Legend of Zelda game to come out the same year the movie does (sometime before 2027).
Nintendo won't be returning to a home console and handheld situation, they will be sticking with the hybrid model. And based on the pattern we see from Gamecube to now, I will make the assumption that the launch title for the NG will be a new 3-D Mario Adventure.


Now, Nintendo could do what Nintendo does best and innovate. They could release two or three big Nintendo game franchises at the same time. Metroid Prime 4, 3D Mario Adventure, and Experimental. But the only one that would be recognized as the dedicated launch title will the 3D Mario Adventure.

Firstly, I dont think it's odd at all. 
Nintendo has been alternating their two babies. Breath of the Wild got the Switch Launch for the Switch, New Super Mario Bros U got the WiiU launch, Twilight Princess & Wii Sports got the launch on the Wii, and Luigi's Mansion (Mario-related title) got the launch for the Gamecube.
Therefore according to their trend, the NG will be a Mario Game. I say it wont be Mario Kart X, because rumors have it set to release in 2025 (in the second year of the NG), so it may actually be more closer to a November 2025 release. Farther than what I was arguing for.
And I say it will be a 3D Mario Adventure is because we just had a 2D Mario release.

Secondly, 3D Mario launch titles have been a launch title for 3 out of the 13 consoles. And 3D has only existed since the N64. So 3 out of 8 possible consoles have had a 3D Mario title at their launch. Out of the 3D possible consoles, 6 out of 8 were a 3D launch. So yes, Nintendo is focusing on a 3D Mario Launch Title for the NG. EPD 8, the department in charge of specifically 3D Mario releases games on average every ~1.5 years. Ever since Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury they have been awfully quiet. No game in 2022, no game for 2023. So I make the assumption that they are going to release a game in 2024 (Mario Odyssey was 2019, and Bowser's Fury was 2021). And the NG is rumored to release in 2024. I'm just putting 1+1 together saying that the NG will launch with a 3D Mario game. How many consoles have launched with a racing game? One and it was F-Zero, not even a Mario Kart game (which are some of the best selling Nintendo games).

Thirdly, yes it takes about 9 months on average for every 3D possible console to bring a 3D Mario game to it. 3 launched the consoles, 3 were within the year, and the last one (Mario Odyssey) took 2 years. So then what has EPD been working on since 2021? They just been sitting around doing nothing? No, they have been hard at work innovating the 3D Mario brand, so the NG may launch with a replayable, fun, energetic, and family friendly 3D Mario game for 2024.

Fourth, Mart Kart 8 Deluxe wasn't even a Switch launch title. It was released close to the Switch's debut.

I still stand with my comment being, if you put too many game too close together at the time of a console's launch, many of those games will not get the attention, respect, nor sales they deserve.

For the Switch launch, Nintendo fired a canon. A new Zelda, Mario kart deluxe, A new Xenoblade, new Mario 3D, Ubisofts Mario Kingdom battle and plenty others all in the first calendar year. It was clear that after the Wii U, they wanted and needed to make an impact. Nintendo is in a less desperate state now. I expect the roll-out for new heave hitter games to be more gradual over time.



HyrulianScrolls on 14 December 2023

Who is saying 3D Mario are statistically launch titles more often than not? That is absolutely false, it has only happened ONCE with the N64. Every other has been 7-12 months following launch.

64 - 64 at launch 

GCN - Sunshine 9 months post launch 

Wii - Galaxy 1 year post launch 

3DS - 3D Land 9 months post launch 

Wii U - 3D World 1 year post launch 

Switch - Odyssey 7 months post launch 

The reason for this is because Nintendo considers it paramount that the first headliner 3D Mario on a system be polished to perfection. The only reason we got 64 at launch is because they literally delayed the console for it to be polished enough since they knew how important it was to show off the jump into 3D gaming at launch. 

Last edited by HyrulianScrolls - on 14 December 2023

Shtinamin_ on 14 December 2023
HyrulianScrolls said:

Who is saying 3D Mario are statistically launch titles more often than not? That is absolutely false, it has only happened ONCE with the N64. Every other has been 7-12 months following launch.

64 - 64 at launch 

GCN - Sunshine 9 months post launch 

Wii - Galaxy 1 year post launch 

3DS - 3D Land 9 months post launch 

Wii U - 3D World 1 year post launch 

Switch - Odyssey 7 months post launch 

The reason for this is because Nintendo considers it paramount that the first headliner 3D Mario on a system be polished to perfection. The only reason we got 64 at launch is because they literally delayed the console for it to be polished enough since they knew how important it was to show off the jump into 3D gaming at launch. 

Ok. If you wanna talk about the next console there is a newly made forum for that.
I still think Nintendo plans on a 3D Mario since EPD8 has had since 2019, 5 years to work on a 3D Mario to innovate, develop and polish. 
They will want to show off how a 3D platform/open world should be, they know.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.