The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Shtinamin_]

HyrulianScrolls said:

It’s odd to me how many I’ve seen assume that 3D Mario is a launch title when it’s almost never been the case in Nintendo history. In fact, 6-8 months is by far the most common gap between launch and a new 3D Mario title historically, with it taking all the way up to 1 full year in the case of the Wii. 

Few reasons I think Kart makes way more sense as the big launch title: 1) it’s been literally a decade next year since we got a new one. Even Odyssey isn’t that old. 2) I think Nintendo will try to replicate the Switch launch, meaning March release with a Mario Kart and a “core gamer” killer app (MP4 instead of BotW this time) at launch then 3D Mario for that holiday. Exactly like the Switch launch. And 3) Kart is simply a way bigger seller, Nintendo will want to do everything they can to get the massive Switch base to start jumping over, which won’t be easy. 

Shtinamin_ said:

In the history of Nintendo, there has only been one console with a launch title that wasn't a Mario-related title or a Legend of Zelda title, and there has never been a Metroid game as a Nintendo console launch title.
Color TV-Game 6- Light Tennis
NES- Super Mario Bros.
SNES- Super Mario World
Nintendo Virtual Boy- Mario's Tennis
Nintendo 64- Super Mario 64
Nintendo Gamecube- Luigi's Mansion
Nintendo Wii- Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess & Wii Sports
Nintendo WiiU- New Super Mario Bros. U
Nintendo Switch- Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild

Out of the handhelds it's been a 50/50:
Gameboy- Super Mario Land
Gameboy Advance- F-Zero Maximum Velocity
DS- Super Mario 64 DS
3DS- Pilotwings: Resort

The first two big game franchises that Nintendo released was Super Mario and Legend of Zelda, those are their babies, hence why we are getting a Legend of Zelda Movie right after the success of the Super Mario Bros. Movie, so based on this I expect to see a huge Legend of Zelda game to come out the same year the movie does (sometime before 2027).
Nintendo won't be returning to a home console and handheld situation, they will be sticking with the hybrid model. And based on the pattern we see from Gamecube to now, I will make the assumption that the launch title for the NG will be a new 3-D Mario Adventure.


Now, Nintendo could do what Nintendo does best and innovate. They could release two or three big Nintendo game franchises at the same time. Metroid Prime 4, 3D Mario Adventure, and Experimental. But the only one that would be recognized as the dedicated launch title will the 3D Mario Adventure.

Firstly, I dont think it's odd at all. 
Nintendo has been alternating their two babies. Breath of the Wild got the Switch Launch for the Switch, New Super Mario Bros U got the WiiU launch, Twilight Princess & Wii Sports got the launch on the Wii, and Luigi's Mansion (Mario-related title) got the launch for the Gamecube.
Therefore according to their trend, the NG will be a Mario Game. I say it wont be Mario Kart X, because rumors have it set to release in 2025 (in the second year of the NG), so it may actually be more closer to a November 2025 release. Farther than what I was arguing for.
And I say it will be a 3D Mario Adventure is because we just had a 2D Mario release.

Secondly, 3D Mario launch titles have been a launch title for 3 out of the 13 consoles. And 3D has only existed since the N64. So 3 out of 8 possible consoles have had a 3D Mario title at their launch. Out of the 3D possible consoles, 6 out of 8 were a 3D launch. So yes, Nintendo is focusing on a 3D Mario Launch Title for the NG. EPD 8, the department in charge of specifically 3D Mario releases games on average every ~1.5 years. Ever since Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury they have been awfully quiet. No game in 2022, no game for 2023. So I make the assumption that they are going to release a game in 2024 (Mario Odyssey was 2019, and Bowser's Fury was 2021). And the NG is rumored to release in 2024. I'm just putting 1+1 together saying that the NG will launch with a 3D Mario game. How many consoles have launched with a racing game? One and it was F-Zero, not even a Mario Kart game (which are some of the best selling Nintendo games).

Thirdly, yes it takes about 9 months on average for every 3D possible console to bring a 3D Mario game to it. 3 launched the consoles, 3 were within the year, and the last one (Mario Odyssey) took 2 years. So then what has EPD been working on since 2021? They just been sitting around doing nothing? No, they have been hard at work innovating the 3D Mario brand, so the NG may launch with a replayable, fun, energetic, and family friendly 3D Mario game for 2024.

Fourth, Mart Kart 8 Deluxe wasn't even a Switch launch title. It was released close to the Switch's debut.

I still stand with my comment being, if you put too many game too close together at the time of a console's launch, many of those games will not get the attention, respect, nor sales they deserve.