As far as we know, Nintendo Switch games will be present throughout 2025. It already has DKC Returns HD, a new Pokémon Legends and Metroid Prime 4 Beyond coming. It feels pretty obvious to me that we'll see a few more being announced until the end of this year. Not only that but there's the possibility of a few cross-gen titles with the Switch sucessor, meaning it could go beyond 2025 until 2026 at least, if they're willing to extend it that far. 

Considering the dirt cheap 99$ pricing of the PS2 late in it's life, the barrier for the Switch do seem more difficult to traverse due to its current price point. Difficult to think of Nintendo are willing to subsidize hardware profits and relegate it to software gains but we'll see this holiday. I do think the usual strategy of bundling MK8 Deluxe maybe has run it's course at this point.

The most important argument made by that camp was the Switch was suppose to follow the same "historic" trajectory has their other consoles which mostly had their peak during year 2/year 3. Problem is, the Switch was unlike any type of console they ever did up to that point, an untested market, because of it's hybrid nature. The unification of their software departments working on a single platform meant the software support could sustain their console regularly, thus leading to more potential sales.

Also, not to really salt the discourse but there was a few amongst the debates that were prolly afraid at the time that the Switch was gonna mark, an era where Nintendo could once again surpass Sony Playstation's egemony of top selling consoles. So they did they hardest fallacious analysis to make it "not happen".

Thus is born the "Cliff™"

It's on the road to 200 million.

You were losing me with the first paragraph with all the caveat language. 
- but the 3ds was different - ok, how?

- 3ds had a freak year of sales!! - ok, why!?

- that doesn’t normally happen! - umm, ok what’s normal?

but you completely lost me when you said switch had a slow start…..best to know what you’re talkin’ bout son  

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/04/27/nintendo-switch-sells-millions-of-units-after-launch.html

Nintendo clarified that the 13.5m forecast does not include the successor: https://www.gamesindustry.biz/nintendo-no-switch-2-before-april-2025#:~:text=Nintendo%20has%20confirmed%20that%20the,of%20a%20next%2Dgen%20Switch.

I also have my doubts about a price cut; nearly everything is going up in price rather than down these days due to inflation, and Nintendo has been highly averse to price cuts for a long time now.

I was saying the 3DS had a slow start. Hence more people who were available to buy one.

I agree. In everyone's predictions of the Switch is that Nintendo will price cut. However tech prices, like most stuff, doesn't appear to be going down right now. Nintendo can/will only price drop if they still make a profit off the console. Nintendo will not sell it while making a 100 dollar loss on each unit.

agreed, a price cut will only take place if there is a profit.

i think there is plenty of room to lower the price given the costs, inflation included  

the ONLY reason there hasn’t been a cut up to this point is because of the switch sales, they sold 15.5 mil in year 7.  

I also wonder about potential new skus that amplify cost reduction.

just curious, what do you think the costs of the switch are?  Do you really think there’s no room for a price cut?  

costs were expected to be around 215 for the original switch base u it in 2018….

Haha. Well you live up to the username!

kidding aside I know you don’t think 200m is realistic and nor do I. However, I do wonder what the approach to switch will be going forward once switch 2 is released. 

switch benefited from Nintendo streamlining the software team to one system, allowing them to release banger after banger early on and consistently throughout the switches life. I think they’ll need to continue and benefit from this for switch 2. However they have been investing in companies specializing in ports. 

will they attempt to pursue a gameboy length lifecycle?  Move to switch being an affordable low budget option - sturdy but cheap plastic model akin to gba sp?  Marketed to kids for a gaming console. Leverage the amazing software already available with a focus on ports and Indy games from the eshop going forward while focusing the internal software teams on switch 2 development?

at launch, switch parts were estimated to be $140 of the 299 price point, with parts and labour costed to $257, 45 for each joycon and 160 for the dock and switch proper. With retailers getting 42 in profit and expectations that costs would lower in a year for Nintendo to get similar profits after 1 year. So reducing total cost (parts and labour) to 215 per console. That was in 2018. With further cost drops, and efficiencies, as well as inflation the last couple years, who knows how low they could market a low cost switch sku. And the games could be played on switch 2, synergies remain intact for software devs….it would be wild to see the same lifespan as a gameboy/gameboy colour. 

add in they could release a barebones switch tv box to tap into markets where cost matters (ie Brazil) - with no joycons doc and screen costs, 99 for a switch box is easily feasible. How much could that provide similar legs to the 99 ps2 legs?

all this is speculation, but I don’t think are any new or original ideas out of left field that haven’t been legitimately discussed and taken Seriously as a potential future for the switch. 

also they could completely drop off support and production ds style. lol.  But then why the 13.5 m projection. So many questions so many possibilities!!

edit:  I do also wonder, with Pokemon and handhelds being connected so closely, will continuing the switch allow for the, ahem, currently quality of Pokemon development to continue annually on a device like the current switch, with maybe a biannual delivery of ahem, “higher quality” Pokemon games being released on switch 2?  

Is it just me or anyone else also sometimes thinks that it would be hilarious if we had some real high-ranking Nintendo employees among us, seeing our predictions about Switch's future sales while they have everything planned for the console? If there is someone like that out here, hello and please give us another Star Fox game!