Mar1217 said:
As far as we know, Nintendo Switch games will be present throughout 2025. It already has DKC Returns HD, a new Pokémon Legends and Metroid Prime 4 Beyond coming. It feels pretty obvious to me that we'll see a few more being announced until the end of this year. Not only that but there's the possibility of a few cross-gen titles with the Switch sucessor, meaning it could go beyond 2025 until 2026 at least, if they're willing to extend it that far. Considering the dirt cheap 99$ pricing of the PS2 late in it's life, the barrier for the Switch do seem more difficult to traverse due to its current price point. Difficult to think of Nintendo are willing to subsidize hardware profits and relegate it to software gains but we'll see this holiday. I do think the usual strategy of bundling MK8 Deluxe maybe has run it's course at this point.
The most important argument made by that camp was the Switch was suppose to follow the same "historic" trajectory has their other consoles which mostly had their peak during year 2/year 3. Problem is, the Switch was unlike any type of console they ever did up to that point, an untested market, because of it's hybrid nature. The unification of their software departments working on a single platform meant the software support could sustain their console regularly, thus leading to more potential sales. Also, not to really salt the discourse but there was a few amongst the debates that were prolly afraid at the time that the Switch was gonna mark, an era where Nintendo could once again surpass Sony Playstation's egemony of top selling consoles. So they did they hardest fallacious analysis to make it "not happen". Thus is born the "Cliff™" |
That was a good summary.
and I don’t think your last point salts the discourse. Bias is a real thing in this sphere, we see it both ways, so fine to call it out when discussing projections.
the opposite is true too, with overly ambitious expectations of sales for the switch. The post above yours is anticipating Nintendo to exceed their 13.5 m projection. A really tough task given current info imo. And then continue to follow ps2s projections with sales around 180. Not sure I see the 180, or even them selling more than 11 m this fiscal - given current info.
as far as ps5 sales. Will be interesting to see if there is a cliff coming. Projections don’t foresee the ps5 passing ps4 now. Sony revised their 25m to 21 m in mid Feb and failed to meet that. Acknowledged ps5 has peaked, and is projecting 18 m. I. Not sure they are on pace to meet those numbers. 16m give or take a mil looks to be in the cards.
and when the switch 2 releases - what impact will that have on ps5 sales - will we see 8/7 mil the following fiscal?
there is a lot at play, and a lot of fog around the next 2 fiscals that can dictate several different outcomes. Super exciting to watch for sure!
