I think that if the game is a cross gen launch title it may be able to hit that 10 million over the lifetime of the switch 2 

I wish Metroid all the succes, but I cannot see 1 in 20 Switch owners buying it. Typical first person games don't do well on Nintendo systems. Golden Eye was the odd one out on the N64.

Metroid Prime Remaster is one of the few first party games that did not have the Switch effect to sell more than the original release.

If Prime4 can reach 3 million, I think Nintendo will be very happy about it.

The highest selling Metroid game to date, Dread, sold just over 3 million, so if Prime 4 can exceed that, which I believe it can with the right push, it will be a new record for the series.

Metroid is niche, always has been, probably always will be.

As for Switch, it should have enough gas in the tank to cruise to 155 million at least. getting to 160m is a bit more challenging, but not impossible.

I doubt a price cut will happen given that most things are increasing in price rather than decreasing, but perhaps there's one last revision still in the pipeline similar to the New 2DS XL, Wii Mini, NES/SNES Junior, GBA Micro, etc.

If Switch 2 comes out let's say Spring of next year, Switch will probably have about 150m sold to consumers around when next gen starts. But unless they do price cuts, Switch sales will fall to barely anything once the next system is out. Even if S2 costs $400 (which seems likely at this point with no OLED price cut cuz they aren't gonna price next gen concurrently at same price as the predecessor), that's gonna pretty much kill off all Switch sales except the $200 Lite. So without price cuts, or unless they somehow hold off next gen launch until late next year which would be a very bad business decision for their year, Switch ain't hitting 155m. 150m for sure and then it may limp to like 152-153 million, 155m not without price cuts, and no reasonable path to 160m.

Remember sales of Switch have been quite poor for the past 12-18 months everywhere in the world other than Japan except for during the Mario movie / TotK boost which lasted a couple months last year. Switch sales have been limping outside Japan for a while now. The only thing that will juice Switch sales at this point is big price cuts, which are probably not gonna happen. And as soon as next gen starts nobody is going to be buying an old system priced only slightly lower than a brand new next gen system.

When people make predictions like this they end up wrong and seeking excuses such as "I and many other posters didn't expect this to happen". Your prediction relies on you knowing what this company is going to do such as releasing in Spring and no price cut. Both are obviously options and you deny them because you are desperate for any excuse to keep the Switch from reaching 160. You have no reason to believe this non sense especially when you refuse to tell us why Nintendo would say they expect revenue, profits, and software sales to see a significant decline but not the actual hardware sales? Your prediction relies on Nintendo pretty much staying put and also being dumb enough to believe the current Switch wouldn't be affected by a successor's announcement during this fiscal year and release in Spring. You are smart enough to know this but not Nintendo? 

So let's be real here, your post along with other recent post reek of desperation. None of your post should say anything about how you don't expect Nintendo to cut the price or mention a successor in Spring/Q1 because we don't know what Nintendo will do. Your post along with others should consider these possibilities by including what you think would happen if these things do happen. So tell me, what does the Switch sale if my scenario is correct and the successor doesn't release until holiday 2025 and we see a price cut/revision this holiday?

Seems like a really lowball estimate, or wishful thinking. 

I personally think your estimates are unrealistic, but you’re entitled to your opinion.  I also think 13.5 this fiscal year is impossible  

guess we will wait and see. 

even with low sales, it will be close to 2 million sold in the first and slowest quarter of the year.   I don’t see a path where 155 isn’t easily achieved and extremely low likelihood that 160 is missed.   I also am assuming a price cut once switch 2 is announced.  

should be a fun ride!

(what's with all the pfp-less accounts on this post all the sudden? Or has it always been like this?)
But just to give some lasting thoughts, I don't see much point in speculating atm until Nintendo does something new, whether that be releasing their financial earnings for Q1F'25, announcing a big new title, etc. It's kind of a waste imo to endlessly speculate when conditions haven’t been changing.

(p.s.) Some of y'all need to keep your expectations in check. It is possible the Switch could have some strong legs following the launch of the successor, but the arguments I'm seeing on here aren't logically sound. For instance, one argument I’ve been seeing on here follows the logic of "the 3DS sold >10mil after the Switch launched, and the Switch is much more successful than 3DS, therefore it'll perform even better"…which is complete nonsense, as such claim completely dismisses the nuance between (3DS : Switch) versus (Switch : Switch successor). (In particular, the Switch wasn't originally marketed as a replacement to the 3DS, but rather an alternative. It wouldn't be until 2019 when this mentality would change, at which point manufacturing of 3DS systems would cease.) Since we don't know how Nintendo will launching launching the next system, whether they choose to market it as a replacement or as the luxurious alternative (which would hurt sales of the successor imo), it truly is impossible to predict — with a great deal of accuracy — where the LTD number will land.

There are so many factors influencing what the final tally will be it's very hard to predict.

How long will the Switch keep selling, especially lite model?
When will Switch2 launch?
Will Switch2 have a global launch or will 'Other' markets get a delay and if so, how long?
What will be the new pricing structure going forward (both HW & SW)?
Will there be a budget revision (Switch mini)?
For how long will there be first party releases for current Switch?

But I'm going for a guess, that yes eventually Switch will reach 160Million, because I'm guessing it will be on sale somewhere still for the next 5 years. Probably not in all territories for that long for sure. I'm thinking on how the Famicom kept on selling long after successors had come to market.

At this point it all comes down to how Nintendo treats the Switch once it's replaced.
If they keep it around for a while as a budget alternative like 3DS, 160m is within reach. If they decide to phase it out quickly like DS or PS4, it will fall short.
There's just no way to know at this point.

Regarding their 13.5m forecast, Nintendo aren't stupid; they're well aware of how aggressive a target this is and I don't think they'd be so bullish if they didn't have carefully laid plans to make it happen. They may indeed fall short, but I don't think it will be by much.

Care to do the math on quarterly shipments?