The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Phenomajp13]

Slownenberg said:

If Switch 2 comes out let's say Spring of next year, Switch will probably have about 150m sold to consumers around when next gen starts. But unless they do price cuts, Switch sales will fall to barely anything once the next system is out. Even if S2 costs $400 (which seems likely at this point with no OLED price cut cuz they aren't gonna price next gen concurrently at same price as the predecessor), that's gonna pretty much kill off all Switch sales except the $200 Lite. So without price cuts, or unless they somehow hold off next gen launch until late next year which would be a very bad business decision for their year, Switch ain't hitting 155m. 150m for sure and then it may limp to like 152-153 million, 155m not without price cuts, and no reasonable path to 160m.

Remember sales of Switch have been quite poor for the past 12-18 months everywhere in the world other than Japan except for during the Mario movie / TotK boost which lasted a couple months last year. Switch sales have been limping outside Japan for a while now. The only thing that will juice Switch sales at this point is big price cuts, which are probably not gonna happen. And as soon as next gen starts nobody is going to be buying an old system priced only slightly lower than a brand new next gen system.

When people make predictions like this they end up wrong and seeking excuses such as "I and many other posters didn't expect this to happen". Your prediction relies on you knowing what this company is going to do such as releasing in Spring and no price cut. Both are obviously options and you deny them because you are desperate for any excuse to keep the Switch from reaching 160. You have no reason to believe this non sense especially when you refuse to tell us why Nintendo would say they expect revenue, profits, and software sales to see a significant decline but not the actual hardware sales? Your prediction relies on Nintendo pretty much staying put and also being dumb enough to believe the current Switch wouldn't be affected by a successor's announcement during this fiscal year and release in Spring. You are smart enough to know this but not Nintendo? 

So let's be real here, your post along with other recent post reek of desperation. None of your post should say anything about how you don't expect Nintendo to cut the price or mention a successor in Spring/Q1 because we don't know what Nintendo will do. Your post along with others should consider these possibilities by including what you think would happen if these things do happen. So tell me, what does the Switch sale if my scenario is correct and the successor doesn't release until holiday 2025 and we see a price cut/revision this holiday?