Solid lineup announced, but obviously not enough to hit 13.5m for this fiscal year. There has to be a revision coming, otherwise Nintendo's forecast makes no sense. Of course a revision wasn't going to be announced in this Direct, because that would have been too far away from an expected launch date in September or October.

As for the games on their own, nice to see that there will be a new Mario&Luigi RPG (developed by whom?). The Zelda spinoff leaves me with mixed feelings; on one hand, it's sad that classic top-down Zelda gets no new game, but on the other hand, with Aonuma getting to make a puzzle-heavy Zelda title here, it should at least keep 3D Zelda safe in the near future. Mario Party is business as usual, so love it or hate it. DKC Returns getting a Switch release is a solid filler in the schedule.

Metroid Prime 4 isn't too far off from release now - not happening this fiscal year though - but this trailer wasn't more than a teaser. Alright, it looks like a Metroid Prime game, but that's all that can be taken away from it. Will there be much bigger areas this time or will MP4 be confined to small rooms and plenty of corridors again? Will the progress structure be the same or does Retro get a chance to pursue the bounty hunter direction they weren't allowed to do during the 2000s? I don't think we'll get to learn anything new until next year.

But to address the overall theme of this thread again, Nintendo would be on track to hit 160m+ even if they fall short of their 13.5m forecast. The difficulty of their forecast is that they plan to ship only 2m less than in the previous fiscal year, but will already have a year over year deficit of ~2m after the first fiscal quarter, because last year had TotK along with a Zelda OLED SKU that pushed a lot of hardware worldwide. Hence why there has to be a revision this fiscal year, otherwise it's unrealistic to hit 13.5m. As far as the 160m+ goal is concerned, shipments of 11m this fiscal year would be good enough.

Solid lineup announced, but obviously not enough to hit 13.5m for this fiscal year. There has to be a revision coming, otherwise Nintendo's forecast makes no sense. Of course a revision wasn't going to be announced in this Direct, because that would have been too far away from an expected launch date in September or October.

As for the games on their own, nice to see that there will be a new Mario&Luigi RPG (developed by whom?). The Zelda spinoff leaves me with mixed feelings; on one hand, it's sad that classic top-down Zelda gets no new game, but on the other hand, with Aonuma getting to make a puzzle-heavy Zelda title here, it should at least keep 3D Zelda safe in the near future. Mario Party is business as usual, so love it or hate it. DKC Returns getting a Switch release is a solid filler in the schedule.

Metroid Prime 4 isn't too far off from release now - not happening this fiscal year though - but this trailer wasn't more than a teaser. Alright, it looks like a Metroid Prime game, but that's all that can be taken away from it. Will there be much bigger areas this time or will MP4 be confined to small rooms and plenty of corridors again? Will the progress structure be the same or does Retro get a chance to pursue the bounty hunter direction they weren't allowed to do during the 2000s? I don't think we'll get to learn anything new until next year.

But to address the overall theme of this thread again, Nintendo would be on track to hit 160m+ even if they fall short of their 13.5m forecast. The difficulty of their forecast is that they plan to ship only 2m less than in the previous fiscal year, but will already have a year over year deficit of ~2m after the first fiscal quarter, because last year had TotK along with a Zelda OLED SKU that pushed a lot of hardware worldwide. Hence why there has to be a revision this fiscal year, otherwise it's unrealistic to hit 13.5m. As far as the 160m+ goal is concerned, shipments of 11m this fiscal year would be good enough.

Instead of a revision, I expect a small price cut starting the holidays.

A revision would mean that a new production model would need to sit on the production lines, thus lowering the possible production numbers of it's successor at launch.

Even with just a small price cut, Nintendo could achieve quite a bit of sales considering that the console is still sold at or near launch price around the world. Having the lite at ~$179, the base model at $249 and the OLED at $299 would go a long way to achieve the fiscal year sales they projected.

I don't think it'd be that certain since we don't know how much Nintendo will continue to push sales of the current Switch after the successor comes out. If they decide to not bother doing a price cut then sales of the Switch could fall off quick like the DS did since sales of the OLED would collapse at a price difference of only 50 and that model makes up over half of Switch sales. Even the standard model would probably fall off rapidly if there's only a difference of 100 between the two. The Switch Lite could help at least.

Instead of a revision, I expect a small price cut starting the holidays.

A revision would mean that a new production model would need to sit on the production lines, thus lowering the possible production numbers of it's successor at launch.

Even with just a small price cut, Nintendo could achieve quite a bit of sales considering that the console is still sold at or near launch price around the world. Having the lite at ~$179, the base model at $249 and the OLED at $299 would go a long way to achieve the fiscal year sales they projected.

That would be a significant loss in profit though by cutting the price, I don't think they would want to do that. Missing a fiscal year sales target isn't that big of a deal especially very late in a game system's product cycle. 

It matters a lot in year 1/2 of a game console, if you're blowing sales targets in those years it's generally an indication you're in big trouble, but in year .... 8 ... it's basically gravy. If they can hit that great, if not, no one is going to care that much, investors will be focused on the Switch 2 anyway. 

Given that Switch sales in Japan jumped nearly 50% last month for two weeks off a nationwide promotion, I'd say price cuts would do a lot more than people think they would at this point in the Switch's life. Also noteworthy is the fact that Nintendo expects revenue and profit to be down significantly in their financial forecast, even as sales remain relatively stable, which suggests that they expect to eat into their own margins this year, which is usually a sign of impending price cuts or bundles