Looking at the previous year shipments, the quarter that ends in June did 3.91M the quarter that ends in September did 2.93M and the one that ends in December did 6.90M. If they each sell half a million less than the previous year we end up at  153.56M. If they each sell a million less than the previous year we end up at 152.06M.

Solid lineup announced, but obviously not enough to hit 13.5m for this fiscal year. There has to be a revision coming, otherwise Nintendo's forecast makes no sense. Of course a revision wasn't going to be announced in this Direct, because that would have been too far away from an expected launch date in September or October.

As for the games on their own, nice to see that there will be a new Mario&Luigi RPG (developed by whom?). The Zelda spinoff leaves me with mixed feelings; on one hand, it's sad that classic top-down Zelda gets no new game, but on the other hand, with Aonuma getting to make a puzzle-heavy Zelda title here, it should at least keep 3D Zelda safe in the near future. Mario Party is business as usual, so love it or hate it. DKC Returns getting a Switch release is a solid filler in the schedule.

Metroid Prime 4 isn't too far off from release now - not happening this fiscal year though - but this trailer wasn't more than a teaser. Alright, it looks like a Metroid Prime game, but that's all that can be taken away from it. Will there be much bigger areas this time or will MP4 be confined to small rooms and plenty of corridors again? Will the progress structure be the same or does Retro get a chance to pursue the bounty hunter direction they weren't allowed to do during the 2000s? I don't think we'll get to learn anything new until next year.

But to address the overall theme of this thread again, Nintendo would be on track to hit 160m+ even if they fall short of their 13.5m forecast. The difficulty of their forecast is that they plan to ship only 2m less than in the previous fiscal year, but will already have a year over year deficit of ~2m after the first fiscal quarter, because last year had TotK along with a Zelda OLED SKU that pushed a lot of hardware worldwide. Hence why there has to be a revision this fiscal year, otherwise it's unrealistic to hit 13.5m. As far as the 160m+ goal is concerned, shipments of 11m this fiscal year would be good enough.

Would 152.3m by the end of this fiscal year really be fully on track? Based on what the DS shipped after the 3DS came out it could end up being extremely close with it just barely making it or slightly falling short if that is where it's at by then. If it's post successor shipments are more like the 3DS then that would for sure be enough though the lack of backwards compatibility and the unique hardware differences letting it continue being its own thing instead of just being a cheaper option probably helped the 3DS in that regard.

there's a chance next Q4 matches this one since this quarter was noticeably under shipped due to over shipment during the holidays

If you apply the DS sales after the 3DS came out to your number you get exactly 160m

I doubt it given that they just announced a Zelda Switch Lite SKU for September, which if they were planning a new revision they would reveal it as the Zelda edition SKU just like how the Switch OLED was themed after Metroid Dread. Additionally every previous Switch revision has been accompanied by rumors and hints for a few months in advance, which has not been the case so far. My guess is that they will probably just resort to heavy bundling and discounts as soon as September, probably alongside a Switch 2 reveal announcement.

Almost exactly. 7.6m were shipped after March 2011 so the same amount would just barely fall short. Slightly above that would be enough though there's the possibility it falls a bit short.

I think if pokemon za were to come out in this FY it could boost sales as ever other mainline Pokemon game has boosted sales 

Given how fast the DS plummeted after the 3DS got its price cut, I would take those numbers as pretty close to the floor, which means that assuming the switch gets to 152.3m it's basically guaranteed to surpass 160m barring extraordinary circumstances

I don't think it'd be that certain since we don't know how much Nintendo will continue to push sales of the current Switch after the successor comes out. If they decide to not bother doing a price cut then sales of the Switch could fall off quick like the DS did since sales of the OLED would collapse at a price difference of only 50 and that model makes up over half of Switch sales. Even the standard model would probably fall off rapidly if there's only a difference of 100 between the two. The Switch Lite could help at least.