2022 was great for Xbox in Japan, the best sales for an Xbox since 2009. But it's collapsed this year. Going to be around a 45% drop YoY in Japan. If the next Xbox doesn't come till 2028 there's still a chance it can leg it out to 808k. But it's not looking good and if the rumours of the next Xbox now being rushed out earlier than originally planned is the case then it has no chance.
If next year the drop can be managed to only 30% instead of the 45% of this year then maybe it can make it. But these numbers (2024 onwards) are of course just being pulled out of my ass.
2020 - 31k (31k)
2021 - 97k (129k)
2022 - 269k (398k)
2023 - ~147k (545k)
2024 - 103k (648k)
2025 - 74k (722k)
2026 - 49k (771k)
2027 - 30k (801k)
2028 - 12k (813k)
I'm not really sure what to expect in terms of the drop next year so maybe hoping it will go from 45% drop this year to 30% drop next year is far too optimistic.
Edit: I just did another look and while the year as a whole is likely to be 45% down if we look at the second half of the year separately the drop is catastrophic.
Week 1-26 = 40.5% drop YoY (2022:119.3k 2023:71.3k)
Week 27-50 = 64.4% drop YoY (2022:148.4k 2023:67.7k)
With that recent form of 65% drop I think everything I have written above may be a pipedream.
Last edited by Zippy6 - on 21 December 2023