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Forums - Sales - Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or neither?

 

Will Switch outsell PS2 and/or DS?

Yes, it will outsell PS2's (~159Million) 100 57.47%
 
Will outsell the DS, but not the PS2 74 42.53%
 
Switch will fall short of both DS & PS2 0 0%
 
Total:174
heavenmercenary01 on 29 April 2021
curl-6 said:

What makes Switch especially hard to predict in my view is the uncertainty regarding the length of its lifespan. Nintendo are very inconsistent when it comes to how long they support their systems for.

For this reason, while 140-150 million seems most likely to me, it's hard to nail down when I can see it being replaced anywhere from 2022 to 2024.

They need to give some games time to sell. 2022 is out of question. it's a year where we'll be seeing one major pokémon release and a sequel to splatoon (as far as we know already). by 2023 Botw's sequel might be scheduled and the development of MP4 will hit its 4th year, both games might be released in 2023, that's why 2023 is also unlikely for a successor.

I'll go for 2025, and that's the appropriate time imo.



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curl-6 on 29 April 2021
heavenmercenary01 said:
curl-6 said:

What makes Switch especially hard to predict in my view is the uncertainty regarding the length of its lifespan. Nintendo are very inconsistent when it comes to how long they support their systems for.

For this reason, while 140-150 million seems most likely to me, it's hard to nail down when I can see it being replaced anywhere from 2022 to 2024.

They need to give some games time to sell. 2022 is out of question. it's a year where we'll be seeing one major pokémon release and a sequel to splatoon (as far as we know already). by 2023 Botw's sequel might be scheduled and the development of MP4 will hit its 4th year, both games might be released in 2023, that's why 2023 is also unlikely for a successor.

I'll go for 2025, and that's the appropriate time imo.

I'd love it if the Switch isn't replaced by 2025 personally.

I just can't help but worry that they'll pull the plug too early and listen to the misguided folks insisting they need to rejoin the power arms race. Historically, they have a knack for self-sabotage.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 29 April 2021

Cobretti2 on 29 April 2021

I won't read 18 pages of comments however I think it has the potential to do it, but as we know so did the Wii and we saw what Nintendo did with it, quick death.

It all depends on when Nintendo wants to kill it quickly or support it with games and run it for a few more years lol.



 

 

Somini on 29 April 2021

Milionth thread, same reply: no.



Eagle367 on 29 April 2021
Cobretti2 said:

I won't read 18 pages of comments however I think it has the potential to do it, but as we know so did the Wii and we saw what Nintendo did with it, quick death.

It all depends on when Nintendo wants to kill it quickly or support it with games and run it for a few more years lol.

It's way different though. The Wii peaked very early i.e in it's 3rd year and then had a not so steep slope decline. It was a reasonable enough decline. Whereas switch might just peak this year, it's 5th and it has sold more before the peak has happened plus it's peak is much higher. The Wii doesn't even come close. The switch potentially has 3 years that wills ell higher than the Wii's peak. As Norion has shown, even a bad slope will lead to 140mil and as others have shown, a decent slope will lead to outselling the PS2. All ninty has to do is not replace it early, keep releasing the games and maybe release that switch plus or whatever revision by the end of this fiscal year. 

Last edited by Eagle367 - on 29 April 2021

Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

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pikashoe on 29 April 2021
curl-6 said:
heavenmercenary01 said:

They need to give some games time to sell. 2022 is out of question. it's a year where we'll be seeing one major pokémon release and a sequel to splatoon (as far as we know already). by 2023 Botw's sequel might be scheduled and the development of MP4 will hit its 4th year, both games might be released in 2023, that's why 2023 is also unlikely for a successor.

I'll go for 2025, and that's the appropriate time imo.

I'd love it if the Switch isn't replaced by 2025 personally.

I just can't help but worry that they'll pull the plug too early and listen to the misguided folks insisting they need to rejoin the power arms race. Historically, they have a knack for self-sabotage.

Yeah people seem to forget that nintendo replaced the ds the year after it sold 20 million. The only reason it didn't pass the ps2 was for this reason.



Kakadu18 on 29 April 2021
Eagle367 said:
Cobretti2 said:

I won't read 18 pages of comments however I think it has the potential to do it, but as we know so did the Wii and we saw what Nintendo did with it, quick death.

It all depends on when Nintendo wants to kill it quickly or support it with games and run it for a few more years lol.

It's way different though. The Wii peaked very early i.e in it's 3rd year and then had a not so steep slope decline. It was a reasonable enough decline. Whereas switch might just peak this year, it's 4th and it has sold more before the peak has happened plus it's peak is much higher. The Wii doesn't even come close. The switch potentially has 3 years that wills ell higher than the Wii's peak. As Norion has shown, even a bad slope will lead to 140mil and as others have shown, a decent slope will lead to outselling the PS2. All ninty has to do is not replace it early, keep releasing the games and maybe release that switch plus or whatever revision by the end of this fiscal year. 

This year is the Switch's 5th year. 

Last edited by Kakadu18 - on 29 April 2021

scottslater on 29 April 2021
Matsku said:
scottslater said:

Again, all of this data is more and more pointing to the Pandemic hurting more than helping the Switch at this point. We will never know exactly how successful the combination of ACNH+Switch could have been if it wasn't for supply constraints.  Imagine how much better the weekly sales would be if everyone that wanted one worldwide was able to find one on store shelves. This notion that the Pandemic is why the Switch is seeing so much success is even further off base when we look at the evergreen title sales. If people were just buying it to kill some time with ACNH then we would have seen little to no growth across their other titles, which simply isn't true. As a matter of fact, software sales growth has outpaced hardware sales growth, people are buying Switches because of the amazing games.

I mean, look at the sales totals of BotW last quarter. It was the 5th best selling 1st party software, outpacing SSBU and Pokemon. You can point to that first major spike in March 2020 being caused by the Pandemic, but looking at the software that is being sold, it's not just casuals that are gobbling up Switches. Word of mouth has spread about the amazing games only available on the Nintendo Switch.

I can't wait to see what the sales are going to look like for this last quarter with the Mario and Monster Hunter Switch models and 3D World and Monster Hunter releasing.

The pandemic increased demand for all electronics so saying that it hurt the Switch more than helped is disingenuous at best. I agree in that I doubt the Switch would have done way worse without it though.

I think it's pretty clear that the pandemic is hurting more than helping all electronics at this point.



Nintendo with the Switch:

pikashoe on 29 April 2021

The problem with saying the pandemic has been beneficial for switch sales is that we don't know what the switch lineup for 2020 would have been if there wasn't a pandemic. Could monster hunter and 3d world have been released by the end of 2020 if the pandemic hadn't caused delays. If they would have been released then any kind of boost given by the pandemic in 2020 has been completely erased.
We also have to take stock shortages caused by the pandemic into account. Before and after the launch of animal crossing the switch was having huge issues with stock caused by the pandemic.
Another thing to take into account are job losses and loss of income. Over 100 million jobs were lost in 2020 and over 200 million jobs worth of hours were lost in 2020 due to the pandemic. We have to assume that at least some of these people were going to buy a switch and couldn't.



psychicscubadiver on 29 April 2021
Shadow1980 said:

It ends now.

I don't want anyone asking, inquiring, replying, or otherwise directly pestering me on the subject anymore. If people want to argue about something other than the pandemic's effects on sales, fine, but I don't want anyone arguing with me over the subject anymore. Not a one of us has anything new to add to the discussion, and so we're just wasting each other's time at this point.

Are we clear?

This has to be one of the best reactions to a civil discussion I've ever seen, lol.

But back on topic, what is your predicted sales curve for the Switch going forward? I'm part of 'yes' camp given its current outpacing of last year's sales, increased rumors of a mid-gen refresh, and Nintendo's statement that the Switch would have a longer than usual life-span for one of their consoles. I think it will go like this:

2021: 30 million (release of Switch Pro) 110M total

2022: 23 million  133M total

2023: 16 million 149M total

2024: 10 million (Switch 2 release in the holiday season) 159M total

2025: 4 million 163M total