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Forums - Sales Discussion - Super Mario Odyssey shipped 18.06m by June 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

Super Mario Odyssey shipped 18.06m by June 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 19 million 25 3.89%
 
19.0 - 19.9 million 16 2.49%
 
20.0 - 20.9 million 104 16.17%
 
21.0 - 21.9 million 77 11.98%
 
22.0 - 22.9 million 108 16.80%
 
23.0 - 23.9 million 70 10.89%
 
24.0 - 25.9 million 130 20.22%
 
26.0 - 27.9 million 29 4.51%
 
28.0 - 30.0 million 22 3.42%
 
More than 30 million 62 9.64%
 
Total:643

25 million. It's still got some life in it.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 125 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 122 mil (was 100 then 130 million) Xbox One: 50 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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I went with 22-23m. The game sold much more than expected for a 3D Mario game (they usually don't go over 15m). For it to hit the 20m, it will be thanks to the fact that the Switch is a phenomenon right now. Going to the 22-23m, we would be seeing that if the price is reduced, and word of mouth spreads more. I didn't go to 25m because we will see another Mario on the platform soon and that could cannibalize.

The next new 3D Mario I expect to see is a direct sequel to Odyssey.



Surprised people are saying under 24 million. It'll probably be at like 19.5 million by end of this year, and should have at least 3 more years to sell before Switch is even replaced. No way is it gonna start suddenly selling only a million copies a year just a few months from now. Even if it only did a million a year, then let's say another 500k total from 2024 onward, that'd still put it at 23 million and like I just said, no way sales suddenly drop off that much just a few months from now. Plus late in Switch's life it should be put down to $30 which will help. It should do 24 million at minimum, with 26+ million being a high mark.



Slownenberg said:
Surprised people are saying under 24 million. It'll probably be at like 19.5 million by end of this year, and should have at least 3 more years to sell before Switch is even replaced. No way is it gonna start suddenly selling only a million copies a year just a few months from now. Even if it only did a million a year, then let's say another 500k total from 2024 onward, that'd still put it at 23 million and like I just said, no way sales suddenly drop off that much just a few months from now. Plus late in Switch's life it should be put down to $30 which will help. It should do 24 million at minimum, with 26+ million being a high mark.

3D Mario collection plus the next 3D Mario will lower it’s leg



I think it'll end up within the 26.0-27.9 million range. Just short of 30 million

BQ: I think Nintendo will be content with doing that rumored 3D All Stars collection (I believe it's true), and it'll have the Switch be THE system to get all the 3D Mario games. And they'll save the next 3D Mario game for Switch 2, possibly even as a launch title. As for what that game will be, words can't describe how BADLY I want a Galaxy 3!



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Difficult to pinpoint a result since it has legs but they aren't but they aren't the same size as MK, Smash or BOTW.

I think leaning to something in between 22M-24M is the good choice here.



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I'd say 23-25 million.

As for the bonus question, I'm not sure, given Odyssey's sales, a sequel to it seems like a safe bet, but Nintendo is really unpredictable in this aspect.