Hot out of the oven for you folks some BA.4/BA.5 data on immune escape properties (South African autumn resurgence). It's looking like a ~ 7.5x decrease from BA.1 without vaccines, which is similar to Beta or Mu vs. Wuhan-type.

Not great, not terrible; could cause some reinfections in those who weren't vaccinated and had BA.1 but nothing like going from Delta to Omicron.

Transmissibility advantage is likely still the main cause for the replacement of vanilla BA.2 here, same as BA.2.12.1.

Weekly update, Covid-19 simmers on.

In total 4.29 million new cases were reported last week (down from 4.88 million) to a total of 512,804,822
Also another 18,818 more deaths were reported (down from 20,264) to a total of 6,259,009

USA went up a bit in cases, 409K vs 332K last week, still heading down in reported deaths 2,506 vs 2,797 last week.
Europe still heading down, 2.15 million cases vs 2.48 million last week, 8,669 reported deaths vs 11,028 last week.

The continents

Kind of converging to the 'new normal' :/

Corners of the world

USA, India and South Africa are heading up again, South Korea and Iran heading down.
Canada went down a bit 55K vs 68K last week, a couple more deaths though 477 vs 365 last week.

Europe in detail

Italy and now Spain are heading up again, rest still on a downwards trend. Reporting is getting more and more spotty.

China still trying to put the genie back in the bottle
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/how-china-is-using-metal-barriers-to-fight-covid-19-1.5883049

Weekly update. Numbers still heading down, but so is reporting and Russia and China's numbers are incomplete to say the least.


In total 3.69 million new cases were reported last week (down from 4.29 million) to a total of 516,494,202
Also another 15,568 more deaths were reported (down from 18,818) to a total of 6,274,577

Europe is still on a downward trend, 2.15M -> 1.74M and 7,081 deaths (8,669 last week)
USA is slowly creeping up again, 409K -> 497K and 3,726 deaths (2,506 last week)

The continents

Africa is heading back up even though Reunion island has gone silent in reporting.
North America is creeping up as well, Europe and Asia heading down, South America and Oceania remaining about the same.

Corners of the world

South Africa is heading into winter with their 5th surge gaining momentum.
India and the USA are also slowly heading up. China and Iran dropping.
China only reports symptomatic cases and still has many lock downs in major cities.

Europe in detail

Some countries only report twice a week now and testing gets more and more restricted. But deaths are still declining, so no problem yet.

However we shouldn't let our guards down just yet
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-wave-this-fall-and-winter-could-potentially-infect-100-million-americans-white-house-warns-1.5893245

Slight discrepancy...

The White House is sharing these estimates as officials renew their push to get Congress to approve additional funding to combat the virus and as the nation approaches a coronavirus death toll of 1 million. Officials have said the White House will commemorate the moment when the U.S. surpasses 1 million deaths from COVID-19.

Worldometer already has the US 'official' death toll at 1,024,386 which is still very much under counted.

It's the theme of this pandemic, downplaying the numbers every which way possible.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00104-8
Countries have reported some five million COVID-19 deaths in two years, but global excess deaths are estimated at double or even quadruple that figure.

The counter ticked over in the presidential office as well now
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/u-s-president-biden-marks-1-million-americans-dead-from-covid-19-1.5900060

U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday commemorated the death of 1 million people in the Unites States from COVID-19, marking what he called "a tragic milestone" and urging Americans to "remain vigilant" amid the ongoing pandemic.

The United States on Wednesday recorded more than 1 million COVID-19 deaths, according to a Reuters tally, crossing a once-unthinkable milestone about two years after the first cases upended everyday life. The loss represents about one death for every 327 Americans, or more than the entire population of San Francisco or Seattle.

Worldometer is already 26K deaths over the million and the death toll is likely still under counted, but now it's officially over 1 million.
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid#


North Korea suddenly started reporting Covid numbers
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/what-s-behind-north-korea-s-covid-19-admission-1.5901594

Before acknowledging its first domestic COVID-19 cases, North Korea spent 2 1/2 years rejecting outside offers of vaccines and steadfastly claiming that its superior socialist system was protecting its 26 million people from "a malicious virus" that had killed millions around the world.

Its surprise admission this week has left many outsiders wondering just how bad things really are, and there's rising worry that it could cause a major humanitarian crisis in a country with one of the world's worst public medical infrastructures.



Locally more and more people are getting infected around us and it seems my wife has it now. She is in a bad state, yesterday was so bad she said death would be better :/ She's been through a lot so that coming from her :( She's hurting all over, fevers (It's a heat wave here and she's shivering under a blanket) migraine headaches, bad cough, no taste, hard to breath when coughing gets bad. She's too stubborn to go to get help, not they they can do much anyway. The 3 vaccine doses will have to do...

She likely got it from out youngest who is still sick at home. He's off better, soar throat, extremely tired and bordering on a fever. He likely got it from his nephew that he played with over the weekend. His nephew is doing better, but he got it from his father who recently came back from honeymoon in Mexico and later got a confirmed Covid-19 test when he wasn't feeling well. He didn't get any help offered either, just advised to stay home for 5 days. He's doing ok.

But it managed to reach my wife despite being so careful all the time. I guess if she survives she'll be better protected for next time... Today is looking a bit better, hence I dare say 'if she survives', yesterday was looking very grim as if she wasn't there. Scary stuff.

And now our youngest feels bad for getting his mother sick after him being so worried and careful about just that :( He was the one wearing masks long after the school abandoned them. At 10 years old, seeing your mother in an almost catatonic state, trouble breathing while coughing. Old enough to put 'me sick, she sick' together, not good. And we got to hear this from his friend's mom, as he confided this to his friend in text chat. Makes me sad, he doesn't even want to talk to us about his fears :(

I'm kinda angry at his uncle as well. Go fly to paradise, come tell us about all the great sights and food, and now his sister, my wife is near death...

That sucks SvennoJ, I hope she gets better soon. My grandma had it last week but fortunately, all she had was some sneezes and a stuffy nose. We're getting close to winter here and there are quite a few people coming down with influenza or BA.2, though nothing like January.

Thanks. She's doing much better than yesterday, more responsive, no more shivering. Nasty virus. The real problem is how her lungs are going to cope this time, we're also in allergy season, tree pollen peak. And hopefully it doesn't take 8 months again for her taste to come back.

Her friend (far away, not related) also got Covid-19 recently. It's the one who had her left lung removed because of cancer which they detected half a year too late due to the pandemic. She survived that, it would be terrible if Covid now destroys her other lung. Hopefully she gets through it well.

The numbers are already showing a shift from North to South pandemic wise, winter is starting. At least it's getting less severe. First time my wife (we suspect) had Covid (Februari 2020) she was in the worst state for a lot longer. I'll keep my fingers crossed this is not just a temporary reversal and she keeps improving. Not looking forward to this becoming a biannual or even yearly thing...

Weekly update. Worldwide cases are sort of staying the same with cases in the Northern hemisphere still going down, cases in the Southern hemisphere creeping up.

In total 3.78 million new cases were reported last week (slightly up from 3.69 million) to a total of 520,278,716
Also another 11,958 deaths were reported (down from 15,568) to a total of 6,286,535

Europe still heading down (1.74M -> 1.35M), USA still creeping back up (497K -> 640K)
Deaths continue to decline, closing in on getting under 10,000 deaths per week.

The continents

Europe continues heading down, the rest are all creeping back up, USA carrying NA.

Corners of the world

USA and South Africa are having the largest growth, Australia and Brazil following with slight growth.
Japan stabilized from a recent growth spurt, Korea flattened out on their downward trend.
China continues to report only symptomatic cases while continuing their zero covid strategy. Supermarkets and restaurants are said to re-open on Monday in Shanghai with limited capacity and "no contact" transactions
Canada reported 32K new cases (down from 41K) and 501 deaths (486 last week)

Europe in detail

General downward trend next to a general increasing lack of reporting. Only 8 of the 16 countries I'm tracking still report all week round.


At home yesterday was another very bad day for my wife. This disease is nasty. Vomiting, Diarrhea, nasty cough, extremely soar throat, lack of oxygen now and then, wild temperature swings. One moment she's shivering, next boiling. I was debating with her yesterday to call for help when she was complaining about lack of oxygen, but she's stubborn lol. Not that the healthcare system ever treated her right :/

She survived another night at least, slightly better this morning. Our youngest who had it first is pretty much fully recovered, just a stuffy nose left, loss of smell, and still a bit tired. He did a test again yesterday, came out negative. It's just an old rapid home test though that's not very reliable with Omicron.

The wife of my uncle did get a positive on the rapid test, she's got it bad as well now. Uncle is doing better, their son, my kids nephew, is better as well. The grandparents have managed to avoid it so far. I'm staying away from my wife as much as possible, we can't afford both to be down with kids. She's mostly sticking to the bedroom (really can't move much anyway) with the fan on and the windows open. I stay upwind from the fan and sleep on the couch at night, so far it has worked.

Hopefully tomorrow will be better again and not like a different friend of my wife who looked to get better then got worse again :/

Still ongoing? Lul...

Thanks. Yep it's frustrating. The best way to help is not getting sick myself, which means staying away :( Basically provide sustenance, medicine and pillows, all you can do.

Her parents are in the same boat, want to help but they're vulnerable as well. My wife is still more worried they'll get it from her or our kids. Her parents come by anyway, drop off food for the kids (I can feed them too lol but they want to help and is appreciated) and watch them swim, the grandparents with masks on. We have a heat wave, just opened the pool up, so the kids are content at least. They don't mind 68F water!

I hope your girlfriend's mother gets over it soon. My brother in law (not my uncle, my kid's uncle) who was the first to get sick now has very painful ribs from extensive coughing. His wife is pretty bad atm, kid was doing better but not over it yet. I guess I got lucky not to catch it and my wife's parents better remain very careful.

My wife's friend with the one lung left (after beating cancer) got a medicine package (lives in the states) and is doing much better already. Here in Canada we just approved two treatment options (Paxlovid and Evusheld) but there's limited supply and she doesn't quite meet the conditions yet (>60 years and Immunocompromised)

Paxlovid, an antiviral drug for treatment of COVID-19 made by Pfizer, was approved in Canada on Jan. 17. Health Canada says as of March 31, it has shipped enough doses for 150,000 people to the provinces and territories, allocated on a per capita basis. 

But most of the provinces have only given a small percentage of their Paxlovid doses to patients so far, according to emailed responses to CBC News inquiries. In both Ontario and Alberta, for example, only about three per cent of their doses have actually reached patients. 

Despite provinces having so many doses on hand that haven't been used, people have told CBC News that the process of trying to get Paxlovid has been fraught with obstacles, ranging from availability of the drug to a lack of easily accessible places to get it.   

That's a problem, experts say, because to be effective, Paxlovid must be taken within five days of developing symptoms.


Too late already, if testing and tracing was still done we might have had a chance. My brother in law wasn't even tested at the hospital, they just send him home saying it's probably Covid, stay home for 5 days. It's the rapid test that sort of confirmed it later. First we though it was another cold one of the kids brought home from school (crazy weather here, heat wave now 30c, last weekend we had wet snow, up and down for a while, high of 14c tomorrow) but it kept getting worse.

The way this pandemic was/is handled doesn't give me any confidence in how a future pandemic will play out.

I guess best thing to do now is to stay out of the hospital :/

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/half-of-patients-hospitalized-with-covid-19-still-experiencing-at-least-one-symptom-two-years-later-study-1.5906249

That's not how it works of course, but long Covid is not pleasant

Two years after being hospitalized with COVID-19, survivors of the virus are still not back at the same level of health as those who never caught it, according to a new study. And half of those patients are still experiencing at least one virus-related symptom, suggesting that long COVID might end up affecting patients for even longer than anticipated. The research, published last week in the scientific journal The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, follows 1,192 patients who were hospitalized with COVID-19 in Jin Yin-tan hospital in Wuhan, China between early January 2020 and late May 2020.

....

Of the lingering symptoms that patients described experiencing, the most common were either fatigue or muscle weakness, with 31 per cent reporting that they experienced one or both. On top of that, although patients improved with time, they still reported having worse mental and physical health overall than the general population.

“COVID-19 survivors still had more prevalent symptoms and more problems in pain or discomfort, as well as anxiety or depression, at two years than did controls,” the study stated.

A little under a third of the participants also reported sleep difficulties two years after contracting COVID-19, compared to just 14 per cent of the general population represented by the control group. COVID-19 survivors reported pain or discomfort at more than four times the rate of the control group, and were more than twice as likely to report anxiety or depression. And those with long COVID needed to utilize healthcare more often even two years after having the virus. Around 26 per cent of those who were still experiencing at least one virus-related symptom reported a recent outpatient clinic visit compared to 11 per cent of participants without long COVID.

“To the best of our knowledge, this is the longest longitudinal cohort study of individuals who had survived hospitalisation with COVID-19,” the study stated. "Long COVID symptoms at two years were related to decreased quality of life, lower exercise capacity, abnormal mental health, and increased use of health care after discharge.”

Getting discharged from the hospital also doesn't mean you're in the clear yet either
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/about-11-per-cent-of-admitted-covid-patients-return-to-hospital-or-die-within-30-days-study-1.5904770

A new study offers a closer look at possible factors that may lead to some hospitalized COVID-19 patients being readmitted within a month of discharge.

At roughly nine per cent, researchers say the readmission rate is similar to that seen for other ailments, but socio-economic factors and sex seem to play a bigger role in predicting which patients are most likely to suffer a downturn when sent home. Research published Monday in the Canadian Medical Association Journal looked at 46,412 adults hospitalized for COVID-19 in Alberta and Ontario during the first part of the pandemic. About 18 per cent -- 8,496 patients -- died in hospital between January 2020 and October 2021, which was higher than the norm for other respiratory tract infections.

Among those sent home, about nine per cent returned to hospital within 30 days of leaving, while two per cent died.

Meanwhile North Korea has started to report numbers, 1.4 million cases in 3 days
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/north-korea/

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/north-korea-reports-another-surge-in-fevers-amid-covid-crisis-1.5906374

North Korea on Tuesday reported another large jump in illnesses believed to be COVID-19 and encouraged good health habits, as a mass outbreak spreads through its unvaccinated population and military officers were deployed to distribute medicine.

State media said the anti-virus headquarters reported another 269,510 people were found with fevers and six had died. That raises North Korea's deaths to 56 after more than 1.48 million people became ill with fever since late April. North Korea lacks test kits to confirm coronavirus infections in large numbers, and the report didn't say how many of the fever cases were COVID-19.

The outbreak is almost certainly greater than the fever tally, considering the lack of tests and resources to monitor and treat the sick. North Korea's virus response comes down to isolating people with symptoms at shelters, and as of Tuesday, at least 663,910 people were in quarantine.

At home, not much improvement yet. My wife has been bed ridden for almost a week, feeling very weak. Our oldest caught it as well, he's home in bed too. I'm the only one left with working taste buds :/ (Youngest recovered and is doing fine, back to school).

So before falling ill as well I did a grocery run, double masked, hangs stinging from sanitizer lol. I'm still feeling fine but don't want to risk spreading it on. Anyway stocked up on lots of 'easy in easy out' food, soups, mac 'n cheese, noodle bowls, soft breads etc. And other essentials, fluids, vitamins, tissues, and so on.

Luckily the weather turned, it's a nice 12c going up to 15c with clear air after yesterday's rain. Good clean fresh air helps a lot for breathing. Windows open, some relief for my wife at least.

Hopefully I can stave off Covid (or skip entirely would be better) long enough for my wife to get well enough to feed the kids when I go down :/ This thing seems unstoppable.