Today we found out our oldest's teacher had Covid over Christmas... So much for contact tracing and now we're wondering again whether the rapid tests were wrong. My wife is still dealing with whatever our oldest brought back from school last week before Christmas. It's in her lungs now, could be pneumonia again. It's far too risky to go to a health clinic for now. Last time she went they should have admitted her, but sent her home as it was too dangerous to stay (delta wave was ongoing).

I'm getting over 'it', longest 'cold' I've had in years.

It's this not knowing which is so annoying. Can't get tested anymore, rapid tests are not all that reliable, heck maybe we did it wrong. Yet if it is/was Omicron it would be 'safe' to go to a doctor. If it isn't, Omicron on top would be very bad.

In other news, Quebec wants to impose tax penalties to those that refuse to get vaccinated
https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-to-impose-significant-financial-penalty-against-people-who-refuse-to-get-vaccinated-1.5735536

Quebec Premier François Legault announced the province will apply a "significant" financial penalty for residents who refuse to get vaccinated against COVID-19 for non-medical reasons.

The premier made the announcement at a news conference Tuesday afternoon, describing the measure as a "health-care contribution," though the exact amount has not yet been determined.

The province is consulting with the finance minister and its legal advisers about implementing the measure, but Legault already said $50 or $100 "is not significant" enough for him.

I don't want to jinx it, but Malta and most of England might have peaked, NYC too. We'll see how that goes in the face of waning third doses and potentially less voluntary distancing in the coming weeks, but that would not be unexpected since most Subsaharan African countries already have peaked as well.

That might seem really fast but this kind of pace is more or less the average for waves in past pandemics. It is the original SARS-CoV-2 that was too slow.

Is there any way to be sure that the leveling off in NYC isn't due to testing limits? When something levels off so quickly like that it kind of looks like it hit some other artificial limitation. Happens sometimes with the instruments I use at work when the sensor gets saturated and can't measure any higher than a certain number. 

I guess you have to look at the curve of hospitalizations. Here it doesn't look like its leveling off yet.

https://www.oha.com/Bulletins/COVID-19%20Capacity%20Slides%2011%20Jan%202022%20(002).pdf



If you look at New York, it does look like their curve is starting to slow down

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary

Here's an interactive "prevalence" map
https://decision-support-tools.com/map

Coming from here https://decision-support-tools.com/
Context: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/omicron-could-soon-peak-in-some-parts-of-canada-estimates-show-1.5736586

The map predicts the UK is almost at the peak, NY state is past it, NYC almost at the peak.
My local area hasn't peaked yet, but Toronto is at the peak according to these predictions.

It's worldwide, yet the current rise in India isn't on that map yet.

I can think of a few:

1. Gompertz modeling of the ascending curve when tests were more widely available;

2. Tracking the positivity rate;

3. Nowcasting;

4. Daily new hospital admissions per capita.

The last one being the most tangible, but it can sometimes also be slightly misleading if you don't break down by age group.

For instance, if the elderly are dramatically more protected/less exposed than the average, they'll have a much flatter curve of cases and hospitalizations even though the peak might long be past.

Edit - there are also methods like this, tracking viral RNA in wastewater, which predates even developing symptoms. Current data from Boston shows a spike that is around ten times higher than any other wave but is currently past the peak:

Tax the unvacinated?

The threat alone seems to be working already
https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/thousands-sign-up-for-1st-dose-of-covid-19-vaccine-as-quebec-threatens-to-tax-the-unvaxxed-1.5736806

More than 7,000 people registered for their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine Tuesday, amid threats by Quebec officials to tax the unvaccinated.

"Our highest in several days," tweeted Quebec Health Minister Christian Dubé, noting that 5,000 appointments were also made on Monday. "This is encouraging."

Dubé notes the appointments were made across all the age groups, and 107,000 doses of vaccine were administered Tuesday alone.

However
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/quebec-wants-to-tax-the-unvaccinated-but-experts-say-it-could-backfire-1.5737101

Some experts are warning that Quebec's unprecedented plan to tax adult residents who refuse to be vaccinated against COVID-19 could have the greatest impact on those who have "suffered the most during the pandemic," such as vulnerable and marginalized groups.

Vardit Ravitsky, a professor of bioethics at the Universite de Montreal, told CTV News Channel on Wednesday that her main concern is that the tax will not increase pressure on the unvaccinated to get the jab, but will further certain inequities created by the COVID-19 pandemic.

"From an ethical perspective, we're trying to select public health interventions that are the most equitable and just possible. This... does not respect this principle," Ravitsky said.



If the threat alone works, then no need to implement it and no problem :)

Leche wants the schools open again next week. I think I'll keep my kids home. One hasn't had his second shot yet (the youngest) and my wife is still dealing with the last thing they brought back. None of the measures feel adequate, like 3,000 extra hepa filters for 5,000 schools...

And https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-parents-won-t-be-notified-of-covid-19-outbreaks-in-schools-until-30-per-cent-of-students-are-absent-1.5736738

Parents are supposed to use the rapid tests before sending kids to school, which are unreliable at best. I don't think it's safe at all. Let's open the schools at the peak of the Omicron wave, what do you think is going to happen...

Oh, latest news, weather might save us. Big snowfall expected, might be a snow day on Monday.

Leche means milk in Spanish. I think you might just be confused.

I was it's Lecce oops.