By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 33 11.54%
 
First half of 2023 24 8.39%
 
Second half of 2023 35 12.24%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.24%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.59%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.45%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.75%
 
Later than above 2 0.70%
 
Never 149 52.10%
 
Total:286
Nu-13 on 11 January 2020
Ljink96 said:

Yeah, the poll has spoken. Pretty much never. PS4 is more than likely going to hit 120M+ easy. Microsoft lost their edge and their loss was Sony's gain this generation. Switch, I have been saying for a while, I expect Switch to end up at around 85-100M. Really depends on when Nintendo plans to introduce a successor. I think they'll do so in late 2022 or early 2023.

Although aligned sales are promising at this time for Switch, I don't think the library will be able to push it past PS4. 

The polls aren't the most reliable http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=230416



Around the Network
Nu-13 on 11 January 2020
Hiku said:

@Nu-13 Switch being in a gen of its own and PS5/XBSX skipping a generation is a pretty hot take that everyone will have something to say about.
So please create a new thread if you guys want to continue debating that.
And let's try to focus on Switch vs PS4 sales here.

Why did I get 3 notifications out of this? Does editing give extra notifications?



Farsala on 11 January 2020
yo33331 said:
shikamaru317 said:

Never said it would stop selling, but sales usually go down by alot after a successor releases. PS2 was the main exception to that rule, it continued selling for 7 years after PS3 releases, and managed to sell an impressive 40m+ after PS3 released. DS by comparison only sold about 10m after 3DS released. PS3 sold about 6m after PS4 released. I would expect Switch sales after Switch 2 releases to fall somewhere between those two, so between 6 and 10m. 

PS3 did what it did because of Sony leaving it. And the number was close to 8M not 6. If they wanted and tried they could help it getting around 15-20M after PS4 launched. But it was not so profitable for them. PS2 is not exception, this is a normal thing. PS1 did 20M+ after PS2 too. Still great number. PSP did around 15M after next gen 3DS released. and close to 8m after PS Vita released which for 80M lifetime was mediocre but still not bad. For the nintendo consoles, they are mostly weak and are dying preety fast with weak numbers mostly because of nintendo, because once they are going to release successor they are leaving the old console behind and stop releasing games and they don't give price cut either. See DS, see Wii. They easily could support them and release games for them at least for another 3 years (because they stopped doing it in 2010 for wii and in around 2011 for DS). I am talking about excusives and so on. And they could do at least 2 pricecuts and longer their life with additional 2 years. But no. If they do the proper support for switch, it can do better. But I doubt it since it hasn't done anything that good for their dying consoles by now.

PS1 and PS2 legs won't be the norm going forward. The only reason they had legs is because of late launches in big markets like Brazil, Korea, Taiwan, etc. The PS4 launched worldwide in all markets pretty much simultaneously and so was more front loaded, and will have similar or slightly better legs than the PS3. The same goes for the Switch compared to older consoles like the Wii, which also had late gen launches.



Ljink96 on 11 January 2020
Nu-13 said:
Ljink96 said:

Yeah, the poll has spoken. Pretty much never. PS4 is more than likely going to hit 120M+ easy. Microsoft lost their edge and their loss was Sony's gain this generation. Switch, I have been saying for a while, I expect Switch to end up at around 85-100M. Really depends on when Nintendo plans to introduce a successor. I think they'll do so in late 2022 or early 2023.

Although aligned sales are promising at this time for Switch, I don't think the library will be able to push it past PS4. 

The polls aren't the most reliable http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=230416

Well, sure. However, in this case because of my thoughts and the results of the poll I believe the users who responded made the right decision. 



Farsala on 11 January 2020
yo33331 said:
Farsala said:

PS1 and PS2 legs won't be the norm going forward. The only reason they had legs is because of late launches in big markets like Brazil, Korea, Taiwan, etc. The PS4 launched worldwide in all markets pretty much simultaneously and so was more front loaded, and will have similar or slightly better legs than the PS3. The same goes for the Switch compared to older consoles like the Wii, which also had late gen launches.

Oh, please. Go and see how much of the sales after 2000 or after 2006 for those systems are from these countries. US, japan, europe made around 90% to 95% of the sales in these late years on those consoles. Therefore the help of those emerging markets was little to none. The price and the support is everything. PS1 and PS2 had 2 PERMANENT pricecuts after their successor launched. (or around that time). PS3 didn't. Second thing is the price difference between next gen and old gen because if the one is 299$ and the other is 399$ (as was the case with PS4 and PS3) preety much everyone would choose the new console of course.

The Wii and other nintendo consoles doesnt sell well in their last years because of the policy of nintendo. They sold one console for around 4-5-6 years and then stop supporting it in any way. (I am talking about 1st party games, price cuts, marketing)

If PS4 get 2 price cuts as the ps2 and ps1 did from now on, and sony continues to support it, advertise it, making good bundles and price the PS5 at least 499$ PS4 can reach 140M lifetime without problem.

When PS2 went to 129$ it made the same units sold as the previous year, and then had steady decline, then again when it dropped to 99$ it went to sold the same units as the previous year. PS2 had 2 times consecutive years where the one sold 16M for 2 consecutive years, then sold around 7.5M for another 2 consecutive years. Price cuts matters. If PS4 get to 199$ PERMANENT price cut now it can reach 14M again this year despite PS5 launching. PS2 did 16M in the year next gen launched.

The only way for PS4 doing 10M or less after PS5 launch is if it never receive price cut again until death and PS5 is 399$ so that everyone would choose the PS5 over PS4.

Good point. The PS4 won't get price cuts, and the Switch might get 1 or 2 as well and then no price cuts. Console makers want HW profit over unit sales in the latter years these days unlike the PS1 and PS2.



Around the Network
thismeintiel on 11 January 2020
Cobretti2 said:
thismeintiel said:

This.  People are constantly overestimating Nintendo's legs for their consoles, while underestimating Sony's.  I also remember the people who said the PS4 was never going to beat the Wii, even though 2 out of 3 of Sony's previous systems did.  And the one that didn't came in a pretty close 2nd in that same gen with the Wii, 101.6M vs 87.4M.  And that was the gen they utterly screwed up.  Then, we had it won't hit 110M, which it will by the end of this quarter.  And now, it's "it won't hit 120M," even though it is a mere 12M away from that number, now. 

Now, I can definitely see Switch hitting 100M, give or take 10M.  But, it's not going to hit 125M, like the PS4 will most likely do.  I mean, the PS4 looks to be on track to sell 120M even without a price cut.  Give it one or two more, I can definitely see it hitting 125M-130M. 

I would just like to know what is going to keep the Switch selling ~20M every year for the next 4 years to get it to that number.  By 2021, all of Nintendo's big hitters will be out.  It will be receiving fewer AA and AAA ports thanks to those teams focusing on the newer systems.  Speaking of which, the novelty of being the new toy on the block will have completely worn off, as well.  And it will have already had a $199 SKU for over a year, pushing sales for those not willing to pay $299, so a price cut will have less of an impact by then than it would for the PS4.

To be fair at the start of the gen (before the consoles launched and we knew much) it wasn't a crazy thing to think PS4 wouldn't reach Wii numbers. The reason being as XBOX made some great gains last gen, so people thought Microsoft were in with a chance to finally maybe win a gen. Microsoft messed up the launch of XBOX ONE so much that people jumped ship to PS4. Once that happen it was pretty much guaranteed PS4 would do better sales.

I'm not talking about the beginning of the gen. Though, even then we had some Nintendo fans calling doomed because the successor to the popular Wii flopped. No, I'm talking about when the PS4 was on its way to 80M.



 

zorg1000 on 11 January 2020
Farsala said:
yo33331 said:

PS3 did what it did because of Sony leaving it. And the number was close to 8M not 6. If they wanted and tried they could help it getting around 15-20M after PS4 launched. But it was not so profitable for them. PS2 is not exception, this is a normal thing. PS1 did 20M+ after PS2 too. Still great number. PSP did around 15M after next gen 3DS released. and close to 8m after PS Vita released which for 80M lifetime was mediocre but still not bad. For the nintendo consoles, they are mostly weak and are dying preety fast with weak numbers mostly because of nintendo, because once they are going to release successor they are leaving the old console behind and stop releasing games and they don't give price cut either. See DS, see Wii. They easily could support them and release games for them at least for another 3 years (because they stopped doing it in 2010 for wii and in around 2011 for DS). I am talking about excusives and so on. And they could do at least 2 pricecuts and longer their life with additional 2 years. But no. If they do the proper support for switch, it can do better. But I doubt it since it hasn't done anything that good for their dying consoles by now.

PS1 and PS2 legs won't be the norm going forward. The only reason they had legs is because of late launches in big markets like Brazil, Korea, Taiwan, etc. The PS4 launched worldwide in all markets pretty much simultaneously and so was more front loaded, and will have similar or slightly better legs than the PS3. The same goes for the Switch compared to older consoles like the Wii, which also had late gen launches.

Yep, the days of PS1 & PS2 legs are over. Like you said, emerging markets no longer release years later and on top of that the PS1 & PS2 successors released ~5 years later while the PS3 & PS4 successors are coming at the 7 year mark.

A longer generation has the potential to lower post-successor legs.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

thismeintiel on 12 January 2020
Slownenberg said:
thismeintiel said:

This.  People are constantly overestimating Nintendo's legs for their consoles, while underestimating Sony's.  I also remember the people who said the PS4 was never going to beat the Wii, even though 2 out of 3 of Sony's previous systems did.  And the one that didn't came in a pretty close 2nd in that same gen with the Wii, 101.6M vs 87.4M.  And that was the gen they utterly screwed up.  Then, we had it won't hit 110M, which it will by the end of this quarter.  And now, it's "it won't hit 120M," even though it is a mere 12M away from that number, now. 

Now, I can definitely see Switch hitting 100M, give or take 10M.  But, it's not going to hit 125M, like the PS4 will most likely do.  I mean, the PS4 looks to be on track to sell 120M even without a price cut.  Give it one or two more, I can definitely see it hitting 125M-130M. 

I would just like to know what is going to keep the Switch selling ~20M every year for the next 4 years to get it to that number.  By 2021, all of Nintendo's big hitters will be out.  It will be receiving fewer AA and AAA ports thanks to those teams focusing on the newer systems.  Speaking of which, the novelty of being the new toy on the block will have completely worn off, as well.  And it will have already had a $199 SKU for over a year, pushing sales for those not willing to pay $299, so a price cut will have less of an impact by then than it would for the PS4.

While some people are overestimating what Switch's legs likely will be, and underestimating Playstations, you seem to be doing the opposite. You're saying PS4 will most likely hit 125 million, while that is still very up in the air. I mean for one, PS4 is just over 106 million and you are saying its gonna hit 110 by the end of this quarter...no it isn't. It'll probably hit 110 million late in the second quarter. So you're already inflating Playstation numbers right now. This is PS4's last year being being replaced, and its gonna be a much slower year than the 14 million it did last year since it'll be the old system on the market come the holiday season. PS4 might be 116 million by end of the year, at which point PS5 will be Sony's main seller. Its reasonable to expect Sony to sell up to another 10 million PS4's after the PS5 initial holiday launch. That'd put PS4 at 126 million tops likely, which in no way means it will most likely do 125 million or more.

Meanwhile You say Switch will hit 100 million, give or take 10 million, meaning 90-110. It should hit 90 mil by the end of 2021, well before any Switch 2 release, and should still be having monster sales by then. The 110 million is a better estimate, though likely Switch will pass that. I don't think Switch will pass PS4, but I think it will be within 10 million and maybe within 5 million. While you are overestimating PS4 (125+) and underestimating Switch leaving a 90-something million total as a possibility when it just soared over 50 million in less than 3 years with a lot more going for it longevity-wise than the Wii, whose mass popularity was basically a huge fad for non-gamers for a couple years then they stopped buying.

You realize the 106M was sell-through, right?  When we get shipments, it will most likely be at 108M.  I think they can ship 2M more in the next 3 months.  Even if the PS4 only does 10M this year, it will be at ~118M shipped.  Even if it only does another 10M in 2021-2023, that would still be ~128M when everything is said and done.

So, you think the Switch is going to do ~20M this year AND in 2021?  Highly unlikely.  I could see this year being only barely down, maybe even flat, but what is going to make the Switch hit another 20M in 2021?  They already have a $199 SKU and will have launched all of their big hitters. 

And I guess every Nintendo console must have had a fad factor because they seem to follow the same pattern, selling a majority of their sales by the time they are on the market for 3 years.  The Wii was at 66.4% (67.45M/101.63M) when it turned 3.  3DS was at 57% (43.33/~76M.)  The only somewhat recent sytem to buck this trend was the DS.  In fact, to reach the numbers you are suggesting 110M+, the Switch would have to almost follow its sales arch (selling only 42.1% when it turns 3) to a tee.  Do you really expect that to happen?



 

icykai on 12 January 2020
Nu-13 said:
icykai said:

Technically, switch is a better Wii U, so i would consider it an 8th gen console that doesn't share sales with the Wii U. We could also act like Wii U never happened.

Then the ps4 is a 5th gen console. Because the ps2 is just a petter ps, ps3 is a better ps2 and ps4 is just a better ps3.

Touche, but let me ask this. Switch released on 2017. Going by the usual generation age of 6-7 years i would say it will end at around 2023. That's almost 3 years after the next gen starts and at almost 3-4 years before it ends. Does that put nintendo's next  console at gen 11? 

Anyways, topic was about is switch going to outsell ps4 or not. 



Cobretti2 on 12 January 2020
thismeintiel said:
Cobretti2 said:

To be fair at the start of the gen (before the consoles launched and we knew much) it wasn't a crazy thing to think PS4 wouldn't reach Wii numbers. The reason being as XBOX made some great gains last gen, so people thought Microsoft were in with a chance to finally maybe win a gen. Microsoft messed up the launch of XBOX ONE so much that people jumped ship to PS4. Once that happen it was pretty much guaranteed PS4 would do better sales.

I'm not talking about the beginning of the gen. Though, even then we had some Nintendo fans calling doomed because the successor to the popular Wii flopped. No, I'm talking about when the PS4 was on its way to 80M.

At 80m geez. Brave prediction to say it wouldn't get to 100