Forums - Nintendo Discussion - OG+Lite Switch shipment for FY2019 Q2

How many OG+Lite Switch shipment for the period July 1st - Sept 31th 2019 ?

less than 2,8 M 3 12.00%
 
2,8 to 3 M 0 0.00%
 
3 to 3,2 M 2 8.00%
 
3,2 to 3,4 M 3 12.00%
 
3,4 to 3,6 M 0 0.00%
 
3,6 to 3,8 M 0 0.00%
 
3,8 to 4 M 5 20.00%
 
4 to 4,2 M 7 28.00%
 
4,2 to 4,4 M 2 8.00%
 
more than 4,4 M 3 12.00%
 
Total:25

OG+Lite Switch shipment for FY2019 Q2

3,417 M is the current estimated sales by VGC



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If 3.41m is the predicted sales then shipments should be 4.5m+, unless last quarter was overshipped but I really doubt it was.



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peachbuggy said:

If 3.41m is the predicted sales then shipments should be 4.5m+, unless last quarter was overshipped but I really doubt it was.

I don't think they would increase the transit stock from 1,6 to 2,7 millions. Sounds a bit too much.



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Amnesia said:
peachbuggy said:

If 3.41m is the predicted sales then shipments should be 4.5m+, unless last quarter was overshipped but I really doubt it was.

I don't think they would increase the transit stock from 1,6 to 2,7 millions. Sounds a bit too much.

Hmm, I think i'm a bit confused. I was taking it by VGC numbers there were 3.41m Switch/lites sold in the q3 period, so I was estimating if that number was close to correct then 3.41+ additional 1.2-ish million (for transit, store shelves etc.) would have been shipped in that period.



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peachbuggy said:
Amnesia said:

I don't think they would increase the transit stock from 1,6 to 2,7 millions. Sounds a bit too much.

Hmm, I think i'm a bit confused. I was taking it by VGC numbers there were 3.41m Switch/lites sold in the q3 period, so I was estimating if that number was close to correct then 3.41+ additional 1.2-ish million (for transit, store shelves etc.) would have been shipped in that period.

I have made this mistake for a while before someone here teaches me...They don't sell +0.8-1.5 millions at every quarters, they do a stock adjustment. Sometimes the shipment is inferior to the sold quantity because they had to adjust down the stock. This same person here told me that the sellers who directly influence this "transiting stock", try to keep their own stock around 8 times the weekly sales in average. So for a 250000 per week tendency, this would make a global 2 millions. At the last financial result there was a theoritical 1,6 millions in stock, so it is really safe to bet that this 1,6 will be increased, but maybe not until 2,7.

It seems recognized today that the Lite is a little fail considering the numbers of the 4 first weeks, maybe they won't ship as many as Lite as planned to prepare the Q3.



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Amnesia said:
peachbuggy said:

Hmm, I think i'm a bit confused. I was taking it by VGC numbers there were 3.41m Switch/lites sold in the q3 period, so I was estimating if that number was close to correct then 3.41+ additional 1.2-ish million (for transit, store shelves etc.) would have been shipped in that period.

I have made this mistake for a while before someone here teaches me...They don't sell +0.8-1.5 millions at every quarters, they do a stock adjustment. Sometimes the shipment is inferior to the sold quantity because they had to adjust down the stock. This same person here told me that the sellers who directly influence this "transiting stock", try to keep their own stock around 8 times the weekly sales in average. So for a 250000 per week tendency, this would make a global 2 millions. At the last financial result there was a theoritical 1,6 millions in stock, so it is really safe to bet that this 1,6 will be increased, but maybe not until 2,7.

It seems recognized today that the Lite is a little fail considering the numbers of the 4 first weeks, maybe they won't ship as many as Lite as planned to prepare the Q3.

Pretty sure I understand this too. Shipped>sold usually unless the previous month has been overshipped. My original estimation was based on this, so roughly 3.41m (sold) + 1.6m in transit, so roughly 5m shipped. Maybe that's a little optimistic though.



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The amounts of units shipped (on store shelves and in transit) is usually higher this time of year due to the impending increase in sales for the holidays. 



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3190K was shipped last year, this year should be substantially more than that. Rumor also has it that Nintendo shipped A LOT of Switch lite in the quarter to beat potential tariffs
I would be surprised if the yearly increase for the quarter wasnt at least 25-30% higher YoY.

Gonna go with 4.1M shipped.



peachbuggy said:
Amnesia said:

I have made this mistake for a while before someone here teaches me...They don't sell +0.8-1.5 millions at every quarters, they do a stock adjustment. Sometimes the shipment is inferior to the sold quantity because they had to adjust down the stock. This same person here told me that the sellers who directly influence this "transiting stock", try to keep their own stock around 8 times the weekly sales in average. So for a 250000 per week tendency, this would make a global 2 millions. At the last financial result there was a theoritical 1,6 millions in stock, so it is really safe to bet that this 1,6 will be increased, but maybe not until 2,7.

It seems recognized today that the Lite is a little fail considering the numbers of the 4 first weeks, maybe they won't ship as many as Lite as planned to prepare the Q3.

Pretty sure I understand this too. Shipped>sold usually unless the previous month has been overshipped. My original estimation was based on this, so roughly 3.41m (sold) + 1.6m in transit, so roughly 5m shipped. Maybe that's a little optimistic though.

But you don't add this 1,6 to the last quarter quantity...You only add the adjustment of this 1,6.

So if the transit stock varies from 1,6 to 2,2 M eventually, you add only 0,6 M.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Amnesia said:
peachbuggy said:

Pretty sure I understand this too. Shipped>sold usually unless the previous month has been overshipped. My original estimation was based on this, so roughly 3.41m (sold) + 1.6m in transit, so roughly 5m shipped. Maybe that's a little optimistic though.

But you don't add this 1,6 to the last quarter quantity...You only add the adjustment of this 1,6.

So if the transit stock varies from 1,6 to 2,2 M eventually, you add only 0,6 M.

It's dependant on shipped vs. sales from last quarter but iirc last quarter was a rare occurrence when sold was >= to shipped.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!