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Forums - Sales - Lazard: GTA IV expects 60/40 Xbox 360/PS3 for US launch sales

friedtofu said:

Dont attach rates naturally decline as the installed base gets larger (and more games become available for the system)? Its not a simple percentage comparison.


I think this mostly depends on the varierty of games being made available. If a console has mainly bigname shooters, naturally this would mainly attract shooter fans and a new bigname shooter may well enjoy a similar attach ratio. If a lot of different gernes are being served, a platformer fan may not enjoy shooters, those who like a singing or music game may not be a big platformer nor shooter fan, etc.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

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Hey godbless I only named games releasing directly before and after GTA4... when do those games release again?

Ninja Giaden in June.... which is arguable if its a system seller or not. hm... and then games in october/november.



i see first week of gtaiv like this:
gtaiv 3620 version selling more than gtaiv ps3 version
ps3 selling much more than 360



Goddbless said:
MikeB said:
EaglesEye379 said:
MikeB said:
libellule said:
I agre BUT GTA4 will have more legs on Xbox360

... less fans BUT more total users !!!

I would think the PS3 version would have the better legs for the long run. There's a huge list of top ranking PS2 games which are set to receive PS3 exclusive sequels, I would imagine many PS2 users upgrading towards a PS3 also played GTA III and/or San Andreas on the PS2 and thus may be interested in picking up this title.


And whats stopping people upgrading to 360 at a lower price?


Pricing is important, but I believe the bulk of PS2 owners want a Playstation 3, most are just waiting for the price to drop or the big PS2 sequels to arrive. Sony has a good reputation with regard to long lasting support for their consoles and the PS3 has a good reputation with regard to reliability, there are many other factors as well.

I think 360 sales will drop off eventually, after this year there are no more sequels left to popular XBox franchices while the big guns for the PS3 are yet to arrive in this regard.


Why do Sony fans think everyone is so patient they will wait for great games to come out on the PS3 before buying a next gen console. A gamer wants to play the latest and greatest games in the genre they like. Therefore they would have upgraded already because some pretty great games have come out for the 360 and Wii so far.


The PS2 install base is over twice as big as Wii, PS3 and 360 install base combined, so most people seem to be patient, to a Metal Gear Solid, Gran Turismo or Final Fantasy fan a game like Halo, Forza or Gears of War may not be very relevant with regard to their console purchase.

Also many millions of (former) XBox owners in Europe as well as in North America still haven't upgraded towards the 360, this after nearly 3 years and most importantly despite nearly all the big million selling XBox games have already seen sequels on the 360. (Halo, Splinter Cell, PGR, Madden, Ghost Recon, Call of Duty, Dead or Alive, Need for Speed, Forza Motorsport, etc. Only Fable, Star Wars and GTA are remaining of the million-seller XBox sequels!)

Why are many millions of (former) XBox fans so patient then? I think some may hope for hardware issues including RRoD to go away and/or maybe hope for a significant pricecut (although in Europe this had little effect). Content wise nearly all the big XBox names are there plus a few new heavily marketed games like Gears, BioShock, Kameo, Assassin's Creed, Mass Effect, etc).



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

MikeB said:

"Looking ahead, Sebastian notes that “industry sales should get a further lift from upcoming April releases Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo), GT-5: Prologue (Sony) and GTA IV (Take-Two), continuing into May/June with Wii Fit, Pokemon (Nintendo) and Metal Gear Solid 4 (Konami). We expect 5m units of GTA IV over the first two weeks post launch, with roughly a 60/40 unit split on the Xbox 360/PS3.”

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9983&Itemid=2

If so the game seems to not follow installed base ratio sales and the attach rate will be higher amongst PS3 owners.

The installed base sales ratio compared to the 360 is much better for the PS3 in Europe, so total software unit sales could be close.

Personally I think GTA IV (combined with the other soon available titles like MGS4 and GT Prologue for the US) will far more push PS3 install base growth and thus the PS3 version may well end up signifcantly outselling the 360 version if current trends continue and amplify around the holiday season.

BTW if anyone knows, is the game planned for Japan and if so when will it be released? San Andreas performed pretty well for such a type of game for Japan.


Umm... You do realize that individual game attach rates almost always fall as a console's installed base increases right?  For example that's why there are no game for the PS2 that are even close to having the same attach rates as the Halo games on Xbox.  In order for that to happen they would have to sell 30 million or more copies.  You seem to think that it's amazing that it's happening for the PS3 when it's not.

*Edit: Oops I guess someone else already brought up this point.



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@ Legend11

I already shared my perspective on this above, I think the provided game gerne diversity plays a significant role in this. Also the amount of choices within one gerne affects this, for example if 10 shooters are released simultaneously, they will compete for sales as nearly nobody buys all ten of them at once, if ever. The best hyped or most anticipated game will then likely sell best. Halo sales wouldn't suffer and may actually benefit due to more shooter fans moving towards the platform, the other 9 will probably hurt significantly.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

So Lazard thinks that the 360GTA will outsell its PS3 counterpart by 60:40, by 1.5:1 in other words? Ain't gonna happen. Yeah the PS3 is slowly gaining an edge, and the 360 ever so slowly losing the edge it used to have, but it is still outselling the PS3 by 2:1 in the US.

Sure, I wish that the PS3 would do that good but I think that this conjecture is highly doubtful.



dallas said:
So Lazard thinks that the 360GTA will outsell its PS3 counterpart by 60:40, by 1.5:1 in other words? Ain't gonna happen. Yeah the PS3 is slowly gaining an edge, and the 360 ever so slowly losing the edge it used to have, but it is still outselling the PS3 by 2:1 in the US.

Sure, I wish that the PS3 would do that good but I think that this conjecture is highly doubtful.

The comment regards the first two weeks of sales. Christmas sales for example may show entirely different ratios.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

A lot of the fan base for the PS2 went to Wii and 360. They go where the games are at.



Omac said:
A lot of the fan base for the PS2 went to Wii and 360. They go where the games are at.

I think just a few, like I said before the PS2 sold over twice as many consoles as all next gen consoles currently sold combined. And buying a 360 or Wii does not per se mean such people will never own a PS3.

With nearly all the big XBox games already on the 360, this IMO resulted into the bulk of XBox fans buying a 360. Many millions however are yet to do so.

The Wii is IMO best suited for young kids compared to the other systems and Nintendo tries to attract many new gamers with games like Wii Sports and Wii Fit. I think not the type of games the hardcore gamer really wants compared to Grand Theft Auto, Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy, etc and vice versa.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales