I would think the PS3 version would have the better legs for the long run. There's a huge list of top ranking PS2 games which are set to receive PS3 exclusive sequels, I would imagine many PS2 users upgrading towards a PS3 also played GTA III and/or San Andreas on the PS2 and thus may be interested in picking up this title.

And whats stopping people upgrading to 360 at a lower price?

They are familiar with the PS line and have experience playing on the Sony consoles and may have a hatred or dislike to all things Microsoft. That would be one reason why they'd choose the PS3 version over the 360. Also, they may also be GT fans and will want to pick up both the prologue and GTA 4, therefore they'd be inclined to move to the PS3 version. Although the 360 is slightly less expensive ($50 for the models in the states that have a HD) the PS3 has more bang for the consumers buck as they get a HD player, free online gaming (which would push the 360 to a equal price of the PS3 for 1 year sub at $50), etc.

Most casual gamers will not know about the DLC and when they would find out that they'll be shelling out $10-20 for that content in a game that is very long as it is, they wouldn't jump on that. I know I won't, which is why I'm getting it for the PS3 and not for my 360. Don't underestimate the name brand that Sony carries in the gaming worrld and the familiarity that gamers have with PS and GTA as that is most likely what many first played the series on. With Sony currently selling better then the 360, it will only increase for the PS3 as the heavy hitters come out. Its likely that next week we'll see surprisingly higher numbers of PS3's sold in the US due to GT5P being released, while the 360 stays in the 50k range.

I first played the series on Playstation. I'm buying the Xbox 360 version. If I were you, I wouldn't OVERestimate the value of brand power.

Also, I subscribe to the belief that it will be more closer to 70-30 or 65-35 (though I have no basis to back it up, it's just a feeling).

Yes I admit brand equity is stronger. But in the end of the day in total software units sales, 360 > PS3, even with say 70% of PS2 GTA fans going PS3 and 30% going 360. You cant deny that.

if we are talking about people choosing between buying a 360 or buying a ps3 for GTAIV then we have to take into account the games that are coming out around gtaIV. (I know that xbox has a ton of games, but for hype what is coming out is much more important). So think about gt5p and MGS4 and Haze all exclusive to PS3 all coming out within 2 months. So someone who is making a choice is making a choice between gtaIV and slightly cheaper machine (with much less to offer) and DLC, and gtaIV with 3 other amazing games to help convince people to buy a ps3...and there is the possibility of a bundle as well...

Wow another arguement on the same topic, can't we all just wait and see?

Um lets look at the last PS exclusive title that went multiplat shall we.... DMC4...

Ps3 > 360 by 130k (With the NA being a 60/40 split =)

Now before you people say "well that includes japan" You have to realize that Ps3 has been constantly out selling (by a good amount) the 360 on a weekly basis in NA and others. So right now the user base for the Ps3 has an advantage over the 360's from 2 months ago.

You also have to take into consideration that GT5:P is being released in NA this week. I do not believe that it will sell anywhere near Europes numbers (Half of them at the most) But it will push HW before the release of GTA4 to give it another slight advantage.

For the people who think DLC was the deciding factor. I point you in the direction of Gebx's post. Not many Joe Dick and Harrys know about this. If they do know about this they also probablly know about Haze MGS4 and other releases. Thats what we call hardcore gamer.

I do not believe the Ps3 version will outsell the until the Japan release but I do believe it will be closer to 60/40 in favor of 360 in NA and about 55/45 in favor of Ps3 in others

@pooper
Based on GTA:SA VGchartz Japan figures, PS2 version sold 0.41m lifetime. Do you really think this will play any part in the end. And this time there will be a 360 version as well, no matter how small.

Based on your own predictions:
US 60/40
360 = 60% x (est. 6m US by end 2008) = 3.6
PS3 = 40% x (est. 6m US by end 2008) = 2.4

EU+Others 45:55
360 = 45% x (est. 4m Others by end 2008) = 1.8
PS3 = 55% x (est. 4m Others by end 2008) = 2.2

Japan assuming ALL PS3 (very very unlikely)
PS3 = 0.5

Totals
360 = 3.6+1.8 = 5.4
PS3 = 2.4+2.2+0.5 = 5.1

 Being that this was an extremely popular game on the Playstation, and the PS2 version of San Andreas outsold the Xbox version almost 8:1 I think anything over 50-50 is a win for the 360.