"Looking ahead, Sebastian notes that “industry sales should get a further lift from upcoming April releases Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo), GT-5: Prologue (Sony) and GTA IV (Take-Two), continuing into May/June with Wii Fit, Pokemon (Nintendo) and Metal Gear Solid 4 (Konami). We expect 5m units of GTA IV over the first two weeks post launch, with roughly a 60/40 unit split on the Xbox 360/PS3.”

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9983&Itemid=2

If so the game seems to not follow installed base ratio sales and the attach rate will be higher amongst PS3 owners.

The installed base sales ratio compared to the 360 is much better for the PS3 in Europe, so total software unit sales could be close.

Personally I think GTA IV (combined with the other soon available titles like MGS4 and GT Prologue for the US) will far more push PS3 install base growth and thus the PS3 version may well end up signifcantly outselling the 360 version if current trends continue and amplify around the holiday season.

BTW if anyone knows, is the game planned for Japan and if so when will it be released? San Andreas performed pretty well for such a type of game for Japan.

Being that the hardware ratios are 70%-30% in North America a 60%-40% split would not be that fantastic for the XBox 360 ...

@ HappySquirrel

Agreed, according to VGChartz for Americas it's currently 28.5% for the PS3 vs 71.5% for the 360. If the game would sell according to installed base the 360 version should outsell the PS3 version by a factor 2.5 instead of 1.5.

The PS3 is already set to overtake the total install base for Europe within the next following months (maybe GTA IV already triggers this before the release of MGS4, or MGS4 will push the platform ahead), so if similar attach rate advantages count for Europe like I expect it could be very close in terms of total software unit sales.

San Andreas sales were very good for Europe. 5.1 million consumer sales for the North America in 2004 (NPD), over 12 million sales for North America and Europe combined for January 2005.

IMO "close" would be a single digit percentage difference in total sales to the advantage of either platform.

If it is 60/40 US (although VGChartz pre-order data is more like 65:35) and pretty much 50:50 for Europe+Others, then at current trends how is PS3 going to significantly outsell 360 version? What is your predicted ratio?

I am sure there will be a Japan version, and based on current trends, we are looking at 2 months later (this is what happened for COD4).

I was referring to install base ratio growth and relative higher GTA popularity amongst PS3 owners. More people owning a PS3 results into more people being able to play GTA IV on the PS3. Currently the PS3 is outselling the 360 in all major regions, if this holds and amplifies for the holiday season the 360 install base advantage will melt away and a higher attach rate could translate in significant more sales. I expect the gap between 360 and PS3 hardware sales to widen significantly with the release of Metal Gear Solid 4.

OK, so if PS3 install base grows and amplifies for MGS4 etc. blabla, and the attach ratio keeps, how much more software units sales will PS3 version have over 360 version by end 2008? I am just trying to get you to put numbers behind that statement.

I agre BUT GTA4 will have more legs on Xbox360

... less fans BUT more total users !!!

No response because its simple. It wont happen. 360 version > PS3 version. Everyone knows it so I dont see why you keep pushing on this point.

Even if PS3 had super wild sales this year at 13m (they did 8m in 2007), and 360 only had 10m (conservative), and PS3 had 25% attach and 360 had 20% attach (and we know even for a game like GTA4, above 20% for any game means Halo 3 level which is ultra rare), they would still end up being equal at the end.