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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Switch Hardware Numbers Going Down?

 

colafitte said:

 

zorg1000 said:

 

Those numbers arent from ZhugeEX, they come from Nintendo's investor briefing.

It's hard to tell exact numbers because Nintendo has a history of saying something has exceeded and it's actually way above that.

For example, in their Nov NPD PR they said Switch sales exceeded 8.2 million in the US and week or so later we find out exceeded 8.2 million actually meant over 8.7 million.

Or the infamous NPD December 2009 when they said they Wii sales were over 3 million for the month when in fact it was 3.81 million.

Then there is also the fact that it had to be an estimate because not even Nintendo would have end of January global sell through yesterday as the presentation would been prepared days in advance before January was even over.

 

With that said, yes it was likely overtracked by a bit, I highly doubt close to 1 million though.

I never said those numbers were from ZhugeEX. He said numerous times that he has insight to worldwide trackers like NPD, MC, GFK and others. So his numbers are reliable, at least as reliable as when he said XBO numbers a few days ago.

And i said 0'5-1'0M because before adjustments Switch showed 30'7M at January 5th, and if Switch sold the same the rest of the month as it did last year, Switch was on pace to finish around 31'3-31'4M. Even if Switch ended around 30'9M (something doubtful) and Switch did not sold better this this year compared to last (also doubtful) it will still be around 0'4-0'5M overtracked at least.

I do think Switch sold better this Jan than last, and that Switch did not finished so close to 31'0M by the end of the month, and that's why Switch should be closer to 1M overtracked.

I know ZhugeEX is reliable, what I'm saying is that he just retweeted the number Nintendo used in their presentation.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:

 

colafitte said:

 

I never said those numbers were from ZhugeEX. He said numerous times that he has insight to worldwide trackers like NPD, MC, GFK and others. So his numbers are reliable, at least as reliable as when he said XBO numbers a few days ago.

And i said 0'5-1'0M because before adjustments Switch showed 30'7M at January 5th, and if Switch sold the same the rest of the month as it did last year, Switch was on pace to finish around 31'3-31'4M. Even if Switch ended around 30'9M (something doubtful) and Switch did not sold better this this year compared to last (also doubtful) it will still be around 0'4-0'5M overtracked at least.

I do think Switch sold better this Jan than last, and that Switch did not finished so close to 31'0M by the end of the month, and that's why Switch should be closer to 1M overtracked.

I know ZhugeEX is reliable, what I'm saying is that he just retweeted the number Nintendo used in their presentation.

 Yup. I was just stating that i was just explaining the OP why the reason of the adjusments.



So Switch was over tracked - should drop below 30 million on current chart - but will be right back up to 30 at the end of the month



 

colafitte said:

 

zorg1000 said:

 

I know ZhugeEX is reliable, what I'm saying is that he just retweeted the number Nintendo used in their presentation.

 Yup. I was just stating that i was just explaining the OP why the reason of the adjusments.

I know, I just dont get why you mentioned ZhugeEX Twitter instead of the actual source, Nintendo's presentation.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

 

zorg1000 said:

 

colafitte said:

 

 Yup. I was just stating that i was just explaining the OP why the reason of the adjusments.

I know, I just dont get why you mentioned ZhugeEX Twitter instead of the actual source, Nintendo's presentation.

Because honestly, i didn't knew the actual source was Nintendo, but if you tell it came from that Nintendo presentation, i believe you. 

I only knew ZhugeEX tweet.



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colafitte said:

 

zorg1000 said:

 

I know, I just dont get why you mentioned ZhugeEX Twitter instead of the actual source, Nintendo's presentation.

Because honestly, i didn't knew the actual source was Nintendo, but if you tell it came from that Nintendo presentation, i believe you. 

I only knew ZhugeEX tweet.

Gotcha lol here is the presentation, has some cool info.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2019/190201_2e.pdf



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

 

zorg1000 said:

 

colafitte said:

 

Because honestly, i didn't knew the actual source was Nintendo, but if you tell it came from that Nintendo presentation, i believe you. 

I only knew ZhugeEX tweet.

Gotcha lol here is the presentation, has some cool info.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2019/190201_2e.pdf

Thanks!

There it is, in Page 4: "And cumulative global sell-through, including sales outside of the major markets you saw on the previous slides, has surpassed 30 million units as of the end of January,"

 



If the adjusments are definitive, it seems i was almost 100% spot on in all consoles sales in 2018

VGC now shows:

PS4 -> 18'0M
NS -> 16'5M
XBO -> 7'0M

I said this back in Dec 16th:

NS -> 16'2M end of the year
PS4 -> 18'0M end of the year
XBO -> 7'1M end of the year

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8939310

I will never be more accurate in anything else in my life....



Zombie9ers said:

 

CaptainExplosion said:

How come in the past few minutes the Switch hardware numbers for January 5th are slowly dropping? They just went from 30.7 million down to 30.4 million.

Please explain.

I'm sure it's CGI making adjustments to the territory charts- you'll see the numbers for all of the companies fluctuate as adjustments are made

Nah, I wouldn't want trunks' job. I deal with plenty of whining already!



                                                                                                                                                           

 

colafitte said:
If the adjusments are definitive, it seems i was almost 100% spot on in all consoles sales in 2018

VGC now shows:

PS4 -> 18'0M
NS -> 16'5M
XBO -> 7'0M

I said this back in Dec 16th:

NS -> 16'2M end of the year
PS4 -> 18'0M end of the year
XBO -> 7'1M end of the year

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8939310

I will never be more accurate in anything else in my life....

Kinda easy to get yearly sales right 11.5 months into the year



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.