One thing to take note of is that temporary deals will see more explosive sales since people will rush out to get it before the price goes back up then sales crater afterwards.
Permanent price cuts cause a boost too but they are more about creating an increase in baseline sales rather than a one time boost.
Well I know that but I don't think sales will crater. Maybe for a week or two but the ps4 was selling well in these countries already so it's not like they were at crater levels at the higher price.
I know, I guess my point is that I dont think a permanent price cut will have the effect you're expecting. You will see an initial boost and a better baseline but at this stage of a consoles life price cuts just help prevent sales from dropping too much, they dont really cause notable growth.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
Not really. Year 3 is where Nintendo consoles usually see their peak, and then see a steady decline. I think this will be the year that Switch peaks. Probably a $249 price tag and/or revision and Pokemon. Nothing Nintendo has is going to match that going forward.
So, at most, Switch will have 2019 and 2020. In 2021, the PS5 will be hitting it's stride, while Switch will be on the way out.
As for PS5, we already know plenty about it. It'll be using a Ryzen CPU (seemingly to be 8 cores, given the recent CPU leak) and a Navi GPU (rumored to at least match a 1080 TI), both providing a nice leap in power. At least 16 GB of RAM (the obvious type being GDDR6.) And while we don't know the price, given that Sony has been releasing consoles for $399 this gen, I'd assume we'll see that same price tag next gen, as well, while MS pushes their most powerful iteration for $499.
Do you have a link to this info? How reputable would you consider the source?
GOWTLOZ said:
No, Switch will not have console sellers releasing that late, as Nintendo has already released most of their big series on it. Nintendo hardware also doesn't have the brand recognition of PlayStation through the world.
In Japan Nintendo has a much stronger brand than Playstation. In North America, XBox, Playstation, and Nintendo all have a fairly strong presense, with the edge going to Nintendo mostly because of their handhelds. It's only in Europe where Playstation has the strongest brand.
Now, the leaked product code may not be true. But, it's easy to speculate what is going into the PS5. A Ryzen CPU is the only option they have, as they are sticking with AMD, and a Sony coder was cleaning up and improving code for Ryzen. The only question is how many cores will it have (I'm pretty confident they will go with 8, just like the PS4 has) and will it be Ryzen+ or Ryzen 2. Forbes reported on the BTS drama concerning the development of Vega, with AMD focusing heavily on Navi because they are getting it ready for the PS5. Considering the X already has 12GB of RAM, it's also easy to see that the PS5 will have at least 16GB. Like I said, GDDR6 would be the obvious choice for the type used.
As for your reply to GOWTLOZ, you're forgetting something important, and that's ROW. PS has a much larger presence there than Nintendo. Nintendo also doesn't always get the edge in NA. And if Xbox continues to drop in NA next gen, you can bet that PS will be there to pick that missing marketshare back up. As many have pointed out to you, the Switch will most likely start to decline in 2020, 2021 at the latest. 2021 is when sales of the PS5 will be hitting its stride, and Nintendo will be getting ready for new HW in the next year or two. So, no, Nintendo will not claim the next 4 years.
In your original reply you just said "consoles" and not "home consoles". That is why I bring up the PSP and Vita.
Furthermore my first post was pointing out that people seemed to have learned nothing since the PS3 days. Before the PS3 launched, Sony really did seem invincible. They had made no missteps, and it was too early to tell how the PSP was going to do. Now, it should be obvious that Sony is not invincible. They CAN lose. In fact they lose 50% of the time against Nintendo. Betting on the PS5 before it is even announced is the equivalent to betting on a coin flip. That is MY point. People have learned nothing.
I don't mean to take away from the PS4's success, because that is a legitamate success. But in the first few posts people are already predicting PS5 success based on absolutely nothing. Their track record is an illusion. Sony will not automatically do well just because they are Sony. They lose to Nintendo 50% of the time.
That is where common sense comes in handy. If I say 3/4 consoles sold over 100 million that how could I possibly be referring to anything other than their home consoles?
And again Sony handhelds are irrelevant when talking about their home consoles so no they have not lost 50% of the time to Nintendo. PS5 will not be a handheld so bringing up how PSP/Vita lost DS/3DS is pointless.
The handheld market is relevant, because the PS5 will be competing against a handheld, the Switch. That is why it is relevant that Sony loses 50% of the time to Nintendo.
More importantly, quite a few people still like to hold on to this delusion that Sony is invincible when it comes to gaming. They are definitely not invincible.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right. My Bet With curl-6
Do you have a link to this info? How reputable would you consider the source?
In Japan Nintendo has a much stronger brand than Playstation. In North America, XBox, Playstation, and Nintendo all have a fairly strong presense, with the edge going to Nintendo mostly because of their handhelds. It's only in Europe where Playstation has the strongest brand.
Now, the leaked product code may not be true. But, it's easy to speculate what is going into the PS5. A Ryzen CPU is the only option they have, as they are sticking with AMD, and a Sony coder was cleaning up and improving code for Ryzen. The only question is how many cores will it have (I'm pretty confident they will go with 8, just like the PS4 has) and will it be Ryzen+ or Ryzen 2. Forbes reported on the BTS drama concerning the development of Vega, with AMD focusing heavily on Navi because they are getting it ready for the PS5. Considering the X already has 12GB of RAM, it's also easy to see that the PS5 will have at least 16GB. Like I said, GDDR6 would be the obvious choice for the type used.
As for your reply to GOWTLOZ, you're forgetting something important, and that's ROW. PS has a much larger presence there than Nintendo. Nintendo also doesn't always get the edge in NA. And if Xbox continues to drop in NA next gen, you can bet that PS will be there to pick that missing marketshare back up. As many have pointed out to you, the Switch will most likely start to decline in 2020, 2021 at the latest. 2021 is when sales of the PS5 will be hitting its stride, and Nintendo will be getting ready for new HW in the next year or two. So, no, Nintendo will not claim the next 4 years.
Thanks. This is useful. It gives at least something.
I am not sure if there is enough there to determine what the launch price of the PS5 will be though, which is a much more important detail. Will it be $399 or $499? I could see them going either way. Also, I am still waiting to see if they keep it a vanilla console or bundle in something like a VR headset. That could drive up the price even more. And knowing what games it will have during the first year is also very important. These things I've said in this paragraph are even more important than knowing the system specs. That will actually give an idea of how well the console will do.
That is why I say, it is too early to predict a PS5 victory in say, 2021. It is also too early to say whether or not it will even sell better than the next XBox. We still know very little about the most relevant details for either console.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right. My Bet With curl-6
That is where common sense comes in handy. If I say 3/4 consoles sold over 100 million that how could I possibly be referring to anything other than their home consoles?
And again Sony handhelds are irrelevant when talking about their home consoles so no they have not lost 50% of the time to Nintendo. PS5 will not be a handheld so bringing up how PSP/Vita lost DS/3DS is pointless.
The handheld market is relevant, because the PS5 will be competing against a handheld, the Switch. That is why it is relevant that Sony loses 50% of the time to Nintendo.
More importantly, quite a few people still like to hold on to this delusion that Sony is invincible when it comes to gaming. They are definitely not invincible.
No, it's not relevant at all. Nintendo handhelds beating Sony handhelds has nothing to do with Sony home consoles. It's not 50% because PS5 will not be a handheld.
DS beating PSP and 3DS beating Vita means absolutely nothing when it comes to PS5 vs Switch.
If you want to include Nintendo handhelds than do a Nintendo handheld vs Sony home console comparison.
Last edited by zorg1000 - on 27 January 2019
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
The "Nintendo isn't as big as Sony" thing doesn't really do much for me as an excuse as to why Nintendo has less of a presence in certain areas. Nintendo as a gaming entity has been around for decades, more than enough time to establish partnerships around the world. Linking with other businesses to handle logistical problems is commonplace in a global economy. If they haven't done that by now, that is their own fault. As we all know from the threads that routinely sprout up about the subject, Nintendo has more than enough money in the bank to finance such an endeavour. They just haven't.
Also, I kind of hope aliens in space are reading this thread in an effort to understand Earthlings. If so, they're probably as confused as heck about how Playstation is doomed despite coming off an excellent year.
The handheld market is relevant, because the PS5 will be competing against a handheld, the Switch. That is why it is relevant that Sony loses 50% of the time to Nintendo.
More importantly, quite a few people still like to hold on to this delusion that Sony is invincible when it comes to gaming. They are definitely not invincible.
No, it's not relevant at all. Nintendo handhelds beating Sony handhelds has nothing to do with Sony home consoles. It's not 50% because PS5 will not be a handheld.
DS beating PSP and 3DS beating Vita means absolutely nothing when it comes to PS5 vs Switch.
If you want to include Nintendo handhelds than do a Nintendo handheld vs Sony home console comparison.
I guess we will just have to wait and see who is right.
"Time makes more converts than reason." -Thomas Paine
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right. My Bet With curl-6
Now, the leaked product code may not be true. But, it's easy to speculate what is going into the PS5. A Ryzen CPU is the only option they have, as they are sticking with AMD, and a Sony coder was cleaning up and improving code for Ryzen. The only question is how many cores will it have (I'm pretty confident they will go with 8, just like the PS4 has) and will it be Ryzen+ or Ryzen 2. Forbes reported on the BTS drama concerning the development of Vega, with AMD focusing heavily on Navi because they are getting it ready for the PS5. Considering the X already has 12GB of RAM, it's also easy to see that the PS5 will have at least 16GB. Like I said, GDDR6 would be the obvious choice for the type used.
As for your reply to GOWTLOZ, you're forgetting something important, and that's ROW. PS has a much larger presence there than Nintendo. Nintendo also doesn't always get the edge in NA. And if Xbox continues to drop in NA next gen, you can bet that PS will be there to pick that missing marketshare back up. As many have pointed out to you, the Switch will most likely start to decline in 2020, 2021 at the latest. 2021 is when sales of the PS5 will be hitting its stride, and Nintendo will be getting ready for new HW in the next year or two. So, no, Nintendo will not claim the next 4 years.
Thanks. This is useful. It gives at least something.
I am not sure if there is enough there to determine what the launch price of the PS5 will be though, which is a much more important detail. Will it be $399 or $499? I could see them going either way. Also, I am still waiting to see if they keep it a vanilla console or bundle in something like a VR headset. That could drive up the price even more. And knowing what games it will have during the first year is also very important. These things I've said in this paragraph are even more important than knowing the system specs. That will actually give an idea of how well the console will do.
That is why I say, it is too early to predict a PS5 victory in say, 2021. It is also too early to say whether or not it will even sell better than the next XBox. We still know very little about the most relevant details for either console.
I don't see them doing a $499 box. They did it with PS3 and it didn't work out, not until the PS3 dropped to $399, and even more so at $299. MS did it this gen, and they are going to end up being out sold by more than 2:1. While $499 is a little more acceptable now, and will probably be acceptable in a few more years, I just don't think it sells right now. Sony will also be subsidizing the console, like they always do. So, it may cost $449-$499 to make, but Sony would still sell it for $399.
And trust me, they aren't going to force VR on people. MS tried it with Kinect and it doesn't work. Plus, Kinect was "only" a $100 mark up, while VR would be something more like a $200-$300 mark up. Not going to happen. Also, considering Sony has never lost WW to Xbox, I highly doubt the PS5 will, either. It just has too much going for it, including B/C with PS4. Which seems even more interesting, since apparently Sony, according to one of their patents, is going to be pushing remaster packs (with higher res textures, maybe even higher geometry for models) for PS4 games on PS5. That could be a big selling point for the 100M+ people who own a PS4, especially if its only $10-$20 for the pack instead of paying $60 for a remastered game.
The PS2 continued on that success, almost single-handedly continuing to grow the market in America and Europe (Japan less so, as the console market was experienced slowed growth ahead of its then-future contraction).
My last words about PS2 is that PS2 make about 3 billion$ profits for Sony in the 5 best years, and PS4 maked 2.1 billion$ profits in one quarter.
Your sympathy to PS2 here is overpovered, it has suffered to big fuck ups like broken disc player that forced Sony to refund money to consumers. Also, it was massively pirated.
The PS4 vs PS2 is another planet, another solar system, another dimension.
I am not sure if there is enough there to determine what the launch price of the PS5 will be though, which is a much more important detail. Will it be $399 or $499?
I am betting 399 because the consoles is more a price game than power game all way long, this is the trick that determines if u will win or not here.
What stands for games, I think PS5 will be BC, with some big hits from Sony 1st party devs day1 or launch window just like the Switch did, of course cross gens included, and this time, they will make more than mere 4 milions units for lauch.
This is the real problem for Sony, to not have a supply constrains.
It gives at least something.
