Analysts increasingly believe that Nintendo's goal to sell 20m Switch units this FY is realistic

kirby007

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kirby007 on 16 January 2019

Wyrdness said:
Going by sales from the week ending December 1st VG has the sales at around 4.86m, another week of around 1.2m in the final week would have the NS move 6m in December which would mean crossing the 30m barrier in sales and put shipments likely at around 33m or so leaving them in a good spot to meet their shipment target.

Ill cant see the last week of 2018 be above a million, maybe 800k tops vgc numbers

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Ljink96 on 16 January 2019

I hope some users have built up a hearty appetite for some crow.

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AngryLittleAlchemist on 16 January 2019

Ljink96 said:
I hope some users have built up a hearty appetite for some crow.

i don't know what people were thinking saying that it was nearly impossible (which to be fair, I can't source, and compared to the amount of people who said "it's possible but unlikely", it was rarely said).

Like if the device shipped 16.5 million in it's first year, it doesn't seem that strange to ship 20m in it's second ...

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AngryLittleAlchemist on 16 January 2019

Nuvendil said:

Jumpin said:
Again, it's shipments, not sales. Nintendo's shipments are not constrained by sales, they're constrained by production. Basically, since launch, they have shipped all their production because the danger of retailers is not being unable to sell their stock, but not having enough stock.

This is a gross oversimplification. The system is successful but that does not mean they can endlessly stuff the channels. Eventually such a practice will result in a pronounced slump in shipments. And by eventually I mean within a quarter. If 20 mil was only production, they would not have gone into the holidays so far from their goal that people doubted it. Nintendo easily could manufacture far more than was shipped in FY Q1 and Q2. But they wouldn't have shipped that surplus because stores/suppliers WOULD NOT HAVE BOUGHT THEM

Thank you for explaining this. Your explanation is what I always believed, but I wasn't sure of it so I never refuted such points. I've seen a lot of people (coincidentally a lot of the same people who downplay Switch, though that's not the case for Jumpin) say stuff like this. "Oh, they can get away with overshipping 2-3M. It doesn't mean much!" I just don't think it makes much sense.

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Ljink96 on 16 January 2019

AngryLittleAlchemist said:

Ljink96 said:
I hope some users have built up a hearty appetite for some crow.

i don't know what people were thinking saying that it was nearly impossible (which to be fair, I can't source, and compared to the amount of people who said "it's possible but unlikely", it was rarely said).

Like if the device shipped 16.5 million in it's first year, it doesn't seem that strange to ship 20m in it's second ...

Yeah, Nintendo actually beat their initial predictions last fiscal year. By over a million units if I'm remembering correctly. If they do hit 20M shipped, this thread http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237141 has some pretty good ones to invite to the buffet of crow. lol

But yeah, 20M shipped didn't seem farfetched to me even then, we all knew they'd have a backloaded Fiscal Year and because they were posting okay sales for the first half, people made solid conclusions off of that info alone. Maybe they'll learn their lesson this time.