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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 15 December 2018

colafitte said:
drinkandswim said:

2.5M-3M for the quarter? I can see 2 million in January. 

You have to remember that there's a lot of stock left from the year before, so you have to sell that first. 

And 2M in January is a lot, i don't even know if prime Wii or prime PS2 were able to do that.

 

 

I am saying sales not shipments (2 Million for January) it is high so far first week in Japan 200k Switch sold is all we know. But that can easily put them at 600-800K for W1 of January sold. Smash legs are still in place. Tales of Vesperia and SMBUD release tomorrow. Plus Travis Strikes Again and Smite come to Switch this month. Pretty good lineup for January. February looks bleak unless there are some announcements. March has Yoshi but not until the end of the month.



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Intrinsic said:
drinkandswim said:

In that case on VG chartz approx 14.5 million as of Dec 15th for Switch
Week end Dec 22nd 2 million
Week end Dec 30th 800k
Total Sold 17.3 million

Just know that sold t consumer numbers will always be around 1.5M to 2M lower than shipped numbers. 

PS4

End of CY 2016

Sold-53.4m

Shipped-57.1m

Difference-3.7m

 

End of CY 2017

Sold-73.6m

Shipped-76.5m

Difference-2.9m



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

drinkandswim said:
colafitte said:

You have to remember that there's a lot of stock left from the year before, so you have to sell that first. 

And 2M in January is a lot, i don't even know if prime Wii or prime PS2 were able to do that.

 

I am saying sales not shipments (2 Million for January) it is high so far first week in Japan 200k Switch sold is all we know. But that can easily put them at 600-800K for W1 of January sold. Smash legs is still in place. Tales of Vesperia and SMBUD release tomorrow. Plus Travis Strikes Again and Smite come to Switch this month. Pretty good lineup for January. February looks bleak unless there are some announcements. March has Yoshi but not until the end of the month.

In my case, i was saying shipments because that's what we were discussing at that moment.

2M sold to consumers worldwide is still a lot. Switch is not going to sell 200K each week of January, only this week probably, then it will go back to usual baseline of 50k in time. Sales in the west drop a lot in January too, so don't expect the pace of Nov and Dec in January either.



colafitte said:
drinkandswim said:

I am saying sales not shipments (2 Million for January) it is high so far first week in Japan 200k Switch sold is all we know. But that can easily put them at 600-800K for W1 of January sold. Smash legs is still in place. Tales of Vesperia and SMBUD release tomorrow. Plus Travis Strikes Again and Smite come to Switch this month. Pretty good lineup for January. February looks bleak unless there are some announcements. March has Yoshi but not until the end of the month.

In my case, i was saying shipments because that's what we were discussing at that moment.

2M sold to consumers worldwide is still a lot. Switch is not going to sell 200K each week of January, only this week probably, then it will go back to usual baseline of 50k in time. Sales in the west drop a lot in January too, so don't expect the pace of Nov and Dec in January either.

It would be a lot based on historical numbers. But 400k Global a Week is manageable with the lineup and Smash still selling strong. 100k US 100k Europe 100k Japan 100k ROTW on average isn't ridiculous based on how much Smash is selling, but we will see!



drinkandswim said:
colafitte said:

In my case, i was saying shipments because that's what we were discussing at that moment.

2M sold to consumers worldwide is still a lot. Switch is not going to sell 200K each week of January, only this week probably, then it will go back to usual baseline of 50k in time. Sales in the west drop a lot in January too, so don't expect the pace of Nov and Dec in January either.

It would be a lot based on historical numbers. But 400k Global a Week is manageable with the lineup and Smash still selling strong. 100k US 100k Europe 100k Japan 100k ROTW on average isn't ridiculous based on how much Smash is selling, but we will see!

If you are expecting 100K for Switch in US, Europe and JP each, then ROTW it won't be 100k too. ROTW (for every console) is "usually" around 10-15% of the total. So if US+EU+JP sell 300k, ROTW should be around.....50k per week.

It's pefectly doable, but that will put it close to 1'4M, not 2M. And if it is indeed 400k per week, around 1'6M.

Last year for comparison (using VGC numbers) Switch did 1'2M worldwide in January. So yes, you will be close.



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zorg1000 said:

Again, if the hardware was inside the dock instead of the handheld component than it would not be able to function as a hybrid, it would be a fully stationary device or something like Wii U where you could only play within 20-30 feet of the base unit.

In order to make something a full-fledged hybrid, it needs to have the ability to be fully portable which is only possible if the hardware is in the portable component.

And no it's not just plastic/cables to make portable part connect to TV. It has increased performance when docked, comes with a fully functioning console controller and it plays console games, not like Gameboy Player or Vita which just let you play your handheld games on a TV.

For me this is how I see it.

Its a hybrid because it can be used both as a home console and a portable and has everything out of the box to allow this.

Now if it didn`t have a dock and you had to buy a dock or cable seperately to make it work on a TV then I would call it exclusively a handheld.

Now if its hardware to run games was built into the dock and the dock had to be plugged in to the wall for it to work at all I would call it a home console.

So to me, what qualifies something as handheld or home console is where the hardware lies. If the device can work in its entirety without a TV or being plugged into a wall then its a portable. If it needs a TV and a wall plug then its a home console. 

Another way to look at it; if you are in an empty house and want a gaming device, you walk into a store and spend $300 on a PS4,  it will be useless to you when you get home because you still have to buy a TV. But that is all you will need to spend on the NS and you are good to go. 

This is why I say the NS functions as a hybrid (something that can do both) but is designed from the ground up as a handheld. .One can say that its "home console" function is secondary since they are just a by product of secondary tech (dock) added to the box and since it will work in its entirety regardless of that added tech.

Its like a laptop. Laptops fall under the classification of Mobile PCs. No one calls them desktop PCs even though they can work and perform identically to a Desktop PC. We even have some laptops that are more powerful than desktop PCs but they are still not called desktops. I can take my laptop and plug it to my TV and even close the lid but still that does not make it a desktop even though its acting like one. 

The reason for all this confusion is because there isn't an official name or classification for what kinda device the NS is. So naturally people will disagree on what it is since everyone is trying to shoehorn it into pre existing categories. I chose to look at it as a hybrid. Built like a handheld but designed to be both.

Last edited by Intrinsic - on 10 January 2019

colafitte said:
drinkandswim said:

It would be a lot based on historical numbers. But 400k Global a Week is manageable with the lineup and Smash still selling strong. 100k US 100k Europe 100k Japan 100k ROTW on average isn't ridiculous based on how much Smash is selling, but we will see!

If you are expecting 100K for Switch in US, Europe and JP each, then ROTW it won't be 100k too. ROTW (for every console) is "usually" around 10-15% of the total. So if US+EU+JP sell 300k, ROTW should be around.....50k per week.

It's pefectly doable, but that will put it close to 1'4M, not 2M. And if it is indeed 400k per week, around 1'6M.

Last year for comparison (using VGC numbers) Switch did 1'2M worldwide in January. So yes, you will be close.

Make sense. But yeah 400k on average. The first week should be the highest. I can see like 600k W1 500k W2 300k W3 300k W4. Yeah I guess the last week ends in February so it will be counted there? Even though that week will have more days in January?. Not sure how VGC splits that up. 



drinkandswim said:
colafitte said:

If you are expecting 100K for Switch in US, Europe and JP each, then ROTW it won't be 100k too. ROTW (for every console) is "usually" around 10-15% of the total. So if US+EU+JP sell 300k, ROTW should be around.....50k per week.

It's pefectly doable, but that will put it close to 1'4M, not 2M. And if it is indeed 400k per week, around 1'6M.

Last year for comparison (using VGC numbers) Switch did 1'2M worldwide in January. So yes, you will be close.

Make sense. But yeah 400k on average. The first week should be the highest. I can see like 600k W1 500k W2 300k W3 300k W4. Yeah I guess the last week ends in February so it will be counted there? Even though that week will have more days in January?. Not sure how VGC splits that up. 

Yes. NPD does the same thing.



colafitte said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Oh well, this thread is full of whataboutisms anyway. Just par for the course

But your comments goes after the poster, not against their argument. It's personal and it shouldn't be. You're accusing people of being jealous and that's is as incendiary as derailing the thread.

You took my comment, which wasn't directed at any individual, and made it personal. The gaming world is full of narratives, whataboutisms, etc; There's no difference in let's say, someone predicting the LTD sales of Switch or predicting what the narrative would be if Switch was underperforming. They're both unknown factors and can only be predicted by previous trends etc; 



Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

Again, if the hardware was inside the dock instead of the handheld component than it would not be able to function as a hybrid, it would be a fully stationary device or something like Wii U where you could only play within 20-30 feet of the base unit.

In order to make something a full-fledged hybrid, it needs to have the ability to be fully portable which is only possible if the hardware is in the portable component.

And no it's not just plastic/cables to make portable part connect to TV. It has increased performance when docked, comes with a fully functioning console controller and it plays console games, not like Gameboy Player or Vita which just let you play your handheld games on a TV.

For me this is how I see it.

Its a hybrid because it can be used both as a home console and a portable and has everything out of the box to allow this.

Now if it didn`t have a dock and you had to buy a dock or cable seperately t make it work on a TV then I would cal it exclusively a handheld.

Now if its hardware to run games was built into the dock and the dock had t be plugged in t the wall fr it to work at all I would call it a home console.

So to me, what qualifies something as handheld or home console its where the hardware lies. If the device can work in its entirety without a TV or being plugged into a wall then its a portable. If it needs a TV and a wall plug then its a home console. 

Another way to look at it; if you are in an empty house and want a gaming device, you walk into a store and spend $300 on a PS4,  it will be useless to you when you get home because you still have to buy a TV. But that is all you will need to spend on the NS and you are good to go. 

This is why I say the NS functions as a hybrid (something that can do both) but is designed from the ground up as a handheld. .One can say that its "home console" function is secondary since they are just a by product of secondary tech (dock) added to the box and since it will work in its entirety regardless of that added tech.

Its like a laptop. Laptops fall under the classification of Mobile PCs. No one calls them desktop PCs even though they can work and perform identically to a Desktop PC. We even have some laptops that are more powerful than desktop PCs but they are still not called desktops. I can take my laptop and plug it t my TV and even close the lid but still that does not make it a desktop even though its acting like one. 

Like I said, in order for it to even work as a fully functioning hybrid the hardware has to be in the portable part otherwise you get something like Wii U were you only have a semi-portable device.

Therefore, the "hardware is in the handheld part making it a handheld" argument is invalid because it HAS to be in it to even function as a hybrid.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.