Unrealistic if you ask me. The jumps and drops are too much. Increasing by 4M from 15M to 19M, then anther 3M increase from 19M to 21M then  massive 5M drop from 21M to 16M........... nope, sales just don't work like that.

My opinion is that it's only acceptable to up your predictions if it isn't obvious that you're going to be wrong.

Doesn't that just go to show I adjust predictions as the market changes. And I literally did double my initial prediction after its first year on the market. And I had admitted to doing so in this same thread. I could have sworn my original prediction was 50M though.

In all fairness just last november nearly everyone were predicting some sort of neck and neck race between the NS and PS4 and some even had the NS winning. Only one person on this site got it right.

Cool, you upped your prediction when it was painfully clear you were wrong, is that supposed to made your new estimate more credible?

What does your 2nd paragraph have to do with anything?

Read what he said..... and then look at the 3DS. in 7yrs its basically sold 70M+. Outside the Wii nintendo hasnt ever had a 100M selling home console and that also took almost 7yrs too. So the only historical evidence to use and back the switchs rapid rise to 100M are its handhelds and its last one didnt do 100M in under 6yrs. Its still at 70M+.

Long and short of it is that all we have to go on right now for the Switch is how well its selling right now. Its the first time we are seeing a console like it on the market. Its an unknown entity. Some can say it will sell as well as the wii (best selling console), some come say it will sell as well as the 3ds (most recent best selling handheld) and some will say it will do as well as both combined......

I tend to think it will be somewhere in between.

It wasn't. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8250033

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

What a blast from the past. 

So he went from 35-40m to 70-80m, a 100% increase.........ya I dont think anyone should take Intrinsic seriously when it comes to predicting Switch sales.

Dude...... its a prediction. We aren't getting paid for this. I made a prediction based on how thins were before the console even released. It ended up being more successful than I foresaw. I changed my prediction. Doubled my original tally, admitted that it has been more successful.

This prediction isn't any more or less credible than the last one. Why? because its just a prediction, based on nothing but my opinion which is based on my own interpretation of the facts.

And what that second paragraph has to do with anything is that at the time no one really could know how well the NS was going to do. Hell if you really want t dig into my post history there are multiple times that I kept insisting that we have t wait a year at least before any real predictions can be made. 

I at least admitted i was wrong, as opposed to run away from the site or act like I never made such a prediction. Even in this thread I had referenced my previous much lower prediction. Considering how long ago it as though I just forgot I said 35M - 40M as opposed to 40M-50M. But I am sure if i did through my post history i said something like that too.

Funny enough here is one from feb this year and a reply to you.

Are you both lambasting and mocking people who predicted over 100M for Switch as well??? Perhaps 250M?

I would incentive you to go on WiiU predictions thread and pick every single poster that predicted over 15M and list then for these 2 fine folks to evaluate.

Are you both lambasting and mocking people who predicted over 100M for Switch as well??? Perhaps 250M?

Dude...... its a prediction. We aren't getting paid for this. I made a prediction based on how thins were before the console even released. It ended up being more successful than I foresaw. I changed my prediction. Doubled my original tally, admitted that it has been more successful.

This prediction isn't any more or less credible than the last one. Why? because its just a prediction, based on nothing but my opinion which is based on my own interpretation of the facts.

And what that second paragraph has to do with anything is that at the time no one really could know how well the NS was going to do. Hell if you really want t dig into my post history there are multiple times that I kept insisting that we have t wait a year at least before any real predictions can be made. 

I at least admitted i was wrong, as opposed to run away from the site or act like I never made such a prediction. Even in this thread I had referenced my previous much lower prediction. Considering how long ago it as though I just forgot I said 35M - 40M as opposed to 40M-50M. But I am sure if i did through my post history i said something like that too.