This thread though...
| Mbolibombo said: This thread though... |
It will be way worse next month if Switch happens to wipe the floor with the other consoles...
Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won
LipeJJ said:
That's probably because Switch is tracking much better this holiday so far already and is expected be at least at 35m shipped (more like 37m) by the end of March when it turns 2 years old. The big differences are starting to show this quarter. Not to mention it's doing that while costing $130 more. |
"Expected" is disputable. Like i said earlier, i don't expect more than 35M shipped at all. And i already said we should not count if one or another costed more, because then, how do we compare Switch with PS4 and XBO then???. or how do we compare Pokemon unit sales in handheld consoles compared to a Call of Duty on Xbox ??(with all the dlc's and expansions a microtransactions, etc).
| abronn627 said: Mainly because the 3DS needed a massive price cut in the first year, thus removing any potential price reduction overtime to maintain steady sales, which explain why the console peaked in it’s first year. The Switch still have this advantage and has yet to sell like handheld. The sales distribution between regions also favors the Switch since the shipments are more balanced from one region to another, while 3DS were more prominent in Japan. So even if both are selling at the same pace, the Switch has more potential growth in the long run than the 3DS ever had, sonwe should see a gap forming sooner than later. That’s my take. |
Again, i was not discussing the price of the product but the absolute number of sales because here, we are discussing something is more sucessful if one console sells more than the other, not by how much profit each generates.
Switch having "more potential growth in the long run" is based on nothing more than wishful thinking at the moment. 3DS had very good games until 2013 and after 2013 and that didn't matter at all, because 3DS in its 4th and 5th year just shrink.
| Miyamotoo said: Again, its far more easier to compare official ship number than anything else: -3DS launch vs Switch Launch (march 2011. vs march 2017) - 3.6m vs 2.74m (have on mind that Switch was completely sold out on launch while 3DS wasn't) -3DS FY 2011. (April 2011. - March 2012) vs Switch FY 2017. (April 2017. - March 2018) - 13.5m vs 15.05m -3DS FY 2012. (April 2012. - March 2013) vs Switch FY 2018. (April 2018. - March 2019) - 13.95m vs 18m+ (bare minimum) -3DS FY 2013. (April 2013. - March 2014) vs Switch FY 2019. (April 2019. - March 2020) - 13.53m vs 20m+ (projected year with all things we know about 2019. Switch year for now, including confirmed games, very possible price cut and new revision)
So like you can see, 3DS only has stronger launch month and only reason for that is that Switch was completely sold out while 3DS that wasnt and 3DS actually received huge price cut only 6 months after launch. So right after launch month, Switch in its first hole fiscal year whithout any price cut and with huge stock problems sold better than 3DS that had huge price cut (from $250 to $170-180) in order to start selling better. In second full fiscal year Switch will sell around 5m units more than 3DS did in same year, in third year difference will be even bigger. And yes, when comparing Switch vs 3DS sales, point that 3DS had huge price cut while Switch still did not definitely counts, because that points that Switch achieving this sales without need for huge price cut compared to 3DS, and that means much healthier sales in any case. Yes, 3DS was doing better than Switch in same time period in Japan, but on all other markets outside Japan, Switch is selling much better than 3DS in same time period. Also for comparison, Switch was selling better than 3DS in Japan until 3DS didn't receive price cut, only after that huge price cut 3DS had stronger sales in Japan than Switch did in some time period. What is currently keeping Switch from selling better or similar to 3DS in Japan is $300 price point that for plenty people is very high price point, for people that look at Switch only like handheld device and on market where plenty of people buying handheld device per person (and $300 Switch still has high price point for something like that). Also have on mind that 3DS sales in Japan were very strong in any case, 3DS third best selling gaming hardware ever in Japan, counting every home console and every handheld, only DS and GameBoy and GameBoy Color combined sold better than 3DS in Japan. |
Again, i used selling numbers of this site because it was faster, but official shipping numbers are just usually 1-2m more than sold, for each console, so the comparison is still the same between 3ds and Switch. And again, 18M+ and 20M+ for FY18 and FY 19 are more wishful thinking than anything. 3DS had very good games during its 3th and 4th year too and 3DS did not explode in sales like you expect Switch to do.
And i repeat again, the price point is irrelevant in what i was saying. We were talking about unit sales, period. The reasons why one or another is doing the numbers doesn't matter in what i said. I said people were saying Switch was doing way better than 3DS (saleswise, obviously i meant), and i just pointed out that is was not true, at least, until now.
Look, i expect Switch doing better than 3DS like i explained in a post earlier, but if 3DS is around 73M after almost 8 years on the market, we should not expect more than 80M after 6 years for Switch, because we know what happened with every Nintendo console in the last 30 years, and no, Switch is not that different than another Nintendo handheld... In fact, in my opinion why Switch is doing better, is just because it has better software than 3DS in its first 2 years, that's all, not because the hardware in itself.
LipeJJ said:
It will be way worse next month if Switch happens to wipe the floor with the other consoles... |
oh, Switch will sell the most in December, i don't think anyone is expecting different, even "wiping the floor" like you say. And still won't change anything about what people are saying about Switch lifetime sales.
Shadow1980 said:
Because it is ahead of the 3DS in the U.S., and this is an NPD thread, so there is that. And if VGC is any indication, it may be doing the same in Europe. It's trailing behind the 3DS in Japan, however. The Switch is selling more like a handheld, but it's also a ¥30,000 handheld, nearly double what the standard 3DS cost in 2012. |
You're right, this thread is about NPD and i went off topic, so i apologise. My post was just a reaction to the argument some posters had earlier, so i just wanted to express my opinion, but that's it, no more comments for Switch WW sales from me in this thread.
Wow! Just waded through this entire thread. So many differing opinions! My take is that come December NPD, it will be enough to change some peoples' even long term Switch sales perceptions and estimates. I wouldn't be surprised at a 2.5m+ December NPD and Smash to break a longstanding individual game sales record. Then, the 20m FY shipped amount will look more attainable. Long term growth will look more attainable and a higher FY shipments forecast for Switch FY 2019 by Nintendo will be more likely. Also, for those saying Nintendo fans buy Nintendo consoles for their 1st party games, therefore all are onboard already, this isn't necessarily the case. Within Nintendo's IP's lay very different individual IP fanbases and these in no way necessarily completely overlap. There are probably more than a few waiting for the next Metroid release for example.
DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.
ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!
In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!
| peachbuggy said: Wow! Just waded through this entire thread. So many differing opinions! My take is that come December NPD, it will be enough to change some peoples' even long term Switch sales perceptions and estimates. I wouldn't be surprised at a 2.5m+ December NPD and Smash to break a longstanding individual game sales record. Then, the 20m FY shipped amount will look more attainable. Long term growth will look more attainable and a higher FY shipments forecast for Switch FY 2019 by Nintendo will be more likely. Also, for those saying Nintendo fans buy Nintendo consoles for their 1st party games, therefore all are onboard already, this isn't necessarily the case. Within Nintendo's IP's lay very different individual IP fanbases and these in no way necessarily completely overlap. There are probably more than a few waiting for the next Metroid release for example. |
Well let's save this 2.5M December 2018 NPD for Switch.
duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363
Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994
Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."
DonFerrari said:
Well let's save this 2.5M December 2018 NPD for Switch. |
save it?
DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.
ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!
In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!
peachbuggy said:
save it? |
Yes. We have some PS4 will do less than 700k as lowest I saw (from the regular 1-1.2M expectations), Switch will do over 1.4M perhaps 2.0M and you with the highest one on 2.5M. That is trully a tall order to achieve.
duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363
Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994
Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."
DonFerrari said:
Yes. We have some PS4 will do less than 700k as lowest I saw (from the regular 1-1.2M expectations), Switch will do over 1.4M perhaps 2.0M and you with the highest one on 2.5M. That is trully a tall order to achieve. |
It is a tall order but never underestimate the power of Smash! Plus, i'm not sure if it was on this thread but i've seen a few 2.5m-3m December NPD Switch predictions. As for Ps4, i'm not sure how it historically performs in December but i agree 700k seems low. Based on my limited knowledge i'd probably guess at 1.0-1.2m
DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.
ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!
In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!
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