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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

Nate4Drake on 15 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
Nate4Drake said:

It depends from Nintendo. If they will keep releasing upgraded version of Switch for the next 6 years, it might happen; but you know it would means nothing as PS5 will be out from Nov 2020 most probably, it will be the new workhorse of Sony and PS4 will start little by little fading.  A new gen is starting after the absolute dominion of ps4, so what will happen in NA in 2023-2025 on the clouded and forgotten stage PS4 vs Switch means absolutely nothing. PS5 will be probably ruling again, a new underpowered Nintendo console will be out, trying to compete with Sony and Microsoft which are in the market with their new consoles since 2-3 years alredy.

 This generation is over, PS4 has dominated; we will see with next gen what will happen.

And this is something I feel a lot aren't considering when it comes to the switch. 

 

Is the switch going to go to 80M lifetime sales on the back of Nintendo first party alone? Cause that is what it will need to do. Because once the PS5/XB2 comes along those ports that the NS are getting now won't be there anymore. The power divide will just be too much. 

 Do people really think the arrival of the PS5 and XB2 will not affect the switch in anyway? Do people really think that nintendo first party alone is enough to carry a platform to 80M+ sales? Outside the Wii when has nintendo ever managed that feat? The secnd we start talking abut sales and exclude the call od duties next fortnite next overwatchs` next doom' next fifa and next GTA then nintendo is left solely with its first party. In a world where it cant even sell as a handheld device alone.

You made a good point, and yes, PS5 and Next XBox will affect the "future and sales" of Switch.   The best 3rd party AAA titles cannot even run on Switch, so just imagine when the next hardware from Sony and Microsoft will be out...those will be insanely powerful hardware, games will look stellar with photorealistic graphics at 4K.  And what about games on Switch ? gameplay is important, the "fun factor" is important, but when the Ninty games in comparison look like PS2/Game cube games...well, this is something that inevitably affects the perception that people have of a console.  Mario Kart, Zelda and super smash bros are enough to keep Switch healthy in the long run ?  The next GTA game will be out, it will look stellar, many other 3rd party games will look phenomenal on PS5 and Next Xbox, and what about Nintendo?  Their software will look completely obsolete in comparison, and I really doubt that the lonely 1st Party will keep Switch riding the crest of the wave.  Many people here tend to forget about this crucial point.



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

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PortisheadBiscuit on 15 December 2018
Nate4Drake said:
Intrinsic said:

And this is something I feel a lot aren't considering when it comes to the switch. 

 

Is the switch going to go to 80M lifetime sales on the back of Nintendo first party alone? Cause that is what it will need to do. Because once the PS5/XB2 comes along those ports that the NS are getting now won't be there anymore. The power divide will just be too much. 

 Do people really think the arrival of the PS5 and XB2 will not affect the switch in anyway? Do people really think that nintendo first party alone is enough to carry a platform to 80M+ sales? Outside the Wii when has nintendo ever managed that feat? The secnd we start talking abut sales and exclude the call od duties next fortnite next overwatchs` next doom' next fifa and next GTA then nintendo is left solely with its first party. In a world where it cant even sell as a handheld device alone.

You made a good point, and yes, PS5 and Next XBox will affect the "future and sales" of Switch.   The best 3rd party AAA titles cannot even run on Switch, so just imagine when the next hardware from Sony and Microsoft will be out...those will be insanely powerful hardware, games will look stellar with photorealistic graphics at 4K.  And what about games on Switch ? gameplay is important, the "fun factor" is important, but when the Ninty games in comparison look like PS2/Game cube games...well, this is something that inevitably affects the perception that people have of a console.  Mario Kart, Zelda and super smash bros are enough to keep Switch healthy in the long run ?  The next GTA game will be out, it will look stellar, many other 3rd party games will look phenomenal on PS5 and Next Xbox, and what about Nintendo?  Their software will look completely obsolete in comparison, and I really doubt that the lonely 1st Party will keep Switch riding the crest of the wave.  Many people here tend to forget about this crucial point.

Yay more Nintendoom, just like before the Switch released...we saw how that turned out... 



LGBTDBZBBQ on 15 December 2018

LOL, can Switch break 80m barrier? it's going to surpass Xbox1 in the next year.

Switch can easily surpass 80m
- Smash Ultimate (20M seller)
- New mainline pokemon games that can sell 15-20m per entries
- New 3d Mario ( 15m seller)
- New 3d Zelda ( 15m seller)
- New Animal Crossing(12m seller)
- 3-6M seller like Luigi Mansion, Fire Emblem, Metroid, Yoshi and etc.
- Nintendo Evergreen that can't stop selling like MK8D, SMO, BOTW, and Splatoon 2
- Casual shit like Pokemon Let's Go and Super Mario Party.



thismeintiel on 15 December 2018
colafitte said:
DonFerrari said:

That is because usually NPD leakers on ERA are divas. It isn't the first time we have this, aquamarine and others made similar behaviours. Even "prohibiting" numbers to be posted on VGC. Like how someone that breaks the NDA they signed have any high ground to complain on others leaking to other places?

He has the right to not like what was said about him here, but he had no right to insult every member of this forum for something EVERY GAMING FORUM can be accused of. It was totally inapropiate, and if i dare to say, in a very coward manner, using a way more popular forum to put people against this forum. He probably doesn't like to fight their numbers against VGC because it goes against his interests for his twiter account popularity, and he knows his numbers are more close to the official numbers, so he is more reliable to get real numbers (most people here agree on that), but VGC never lied about its numbers. VGC numbers are not official, they're just the work of using current info to bring a closer aproximation of what the actual numbers of gaming sales are. VGC makes continually adjustments to get close to official data every time now and then. No one here says that you have to trust VGC numbers against any other media or info available for gaming selling numbers.

And VGC forums, and its members have way more and better discussions about sales that what i see in other sites. VGC doesn't deserve such behavior from NPD leakers or other gaming forum members. Mat Piscatella and Benji are very valuable posters in Resetera, but they not only give numbers, they give opinions too. So, the moment they start doing that, people will react always. Compared to ZhugeEX, he express his opinions in forums at a minimum giving mostly only facts and numbers, so almost nobody discuss anything he says. That's how gaming forum works. They're going to be always people that are against what you said or think, and if they're not...., well, it doesn't talk very well about diverstiy of opinions and free speech then.

100% agree.  Especially about the discussions, even those outside of sales.  We have a large mixed crowd here from all sides of the spectrum, both politically and in terms of gaming preference.  We can have heated conversations about anything, and as long as things don't get personal, those conversations are allowed to continue.  On ResetEra, if you don't agree with the hive, you will be moderated.  Even banned. 

DonFerrari said:
I'm laughing with the gloom and doom for PS4 and X1, how much doom reaching 100M is?
Also 25M sales for Switch in 2019 is something very hard to achieve.
Plus December will be funny to see when we have predictions of Switch under 1.4 and over 2M... one of those can be very wrong.

Strange we have people predicting 25M for next year, when it's looking very questionable that they can even hit the 20M they predicted for this year.  If they have a great lineup, coupled with a permanent cut to $199, I could see it happening.  Maybe.  The Wii hit 25M+ its second full FY on the market, at the height of Wii fever.  Switch is a popular console, but I don't see the same fervor around it that surrounded the Wii earlier in its life.



 

derpysquirtle64 on 15 December 2018
Nate4Drake said:
Intrinsic said:

And this is something I feel a lot aren't considering when it comes to the switch. 

 

Is the switch going to go to 80M lifetime sales on the back of Nintendo first party alone? Cause that is what it will need to do. Because once the PS5/XB2 comes along those ports that the NS are getting now won't be there anymore. The power divide will just be too much. 

 Do people really think the arrival of the PS5 and XB2 will not affect the switch in anyway? Do people really think that nintendo first party alone is enough to carry a platform to 80M+ sales? Outside the Wii when has nintendo ever managed that feat? The secnd we start talking abut sales and exclude the call od duties next fortnite next overwatchs` next doom' next fifa and next GTA then nintendo is left solely with its first party. In a world where it cant even sell as a handheld device alone.

You made a good point, and yes, PS5 and Next XBox will affect the "future and sales" of Switch.   The best 3rd party AAA titles cannot even run on Switch, so just imagine when the next hardware from Sony and Microsoft will be out...those will be insanely powerful hardware, games will look stellar with photorealistic graphics at 4K.  And what about games on Switch ? gameplay is important, the "fun factor" is important, but when the Ninty games in comparison look like PS2/Game cube games...well, this is something that inevitably affects the perception that people have of a console.  Mario Kart, Zelda and super smash bros are enough to keep Switch healthy in the long run ?  The next GTA game will be out, it will look stellar, many other 3rd party games will look phenomenal on PS5 and Next Xbox, and what about Nintendo?  Their software will look completely obsolete in comparison, and I really doubt that the lonely 1st Party will keep Switch riding the crest of the wave.  Many people here tend to forget about this crucial point.

Even if next gen consoles wil affect Switch somehow it wouldn't be that much. Because nothing will really change in terms of third party games on Switch actually. It isn't getting games with high-end graphics and it won't get it after next-gen consoles arrive. Nothing will really change from what Switch is getting now.



 

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zorg1000 on 15 December 2018
StarDoor said:
Intrinsic said:

And this is something I feel a lot aren't considering when it comes to the switch. 

 

Is the switch going to go to 80M lifetime sales on the back of Nintendo first party alone? Cause that is what it will need to do. Because once the PS5/XB2 comes along those ports that the NS are getting now won't be there anymore. The power divide will just be too much. 

 Do people really think the arrival of the PS5 and XB2 will not affect the switch in anyway? Do people really think that nintendo first party alone is enough to carry a platform to 80M+ sales? Outside the Wii when has nintendo ever managed that feat? The secnd we start talking abut sales and exclude the call od duties next fortnite next overwatchs` next doom' next fifa and next GTA then nintendo is left solely with its first party. In a world where it cant even sell as a handheld device alone.

> Breath of the Wild becomes best-selling Zelda
> Odyssey becomes the best-selling 3D Mario
> Smash Ultimate becomes the best-selling Smash
> "Clearly, it's the third-party ports that are driving Switch's success."

It baffles me that people still think AAA ports are what determines the success/failure of Nintendo platforms.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Farsala on 15 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
StarDoor said:

> Breath of the Wild becomes best-selling Zelda
> Odyssey becomes the best-selling 3D Mario
> Smash Ultimate becomes the best-selling Smash
> "Clearly, it's the third-party ports that are driving Switch's success."

It baffles me that people still think AAA ports are what determines the success/failure of Nintendo platforms.

Ignoring AAA ports then.

Will Nintendo really keep on supporting the Switch long term? Or will they move on to their next console after 4.5 years?



abronn627 on 15 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
StarDoor said:

> Breath of the Wild becomes best-selling Zelda
> Odyssey becomes the best-selling 3D Mario
> Smash Ultimate becomes the best-selling Smash
> "Clearly, it's the third-party ports that are driving Switch's success."

It baffles me that people still think AAA ports are what determines the success/failure of Nintendo platforms.

What baffles me is how the indies and smaller budgets games are just completely ignored.



zorg1000 on 15 December 2018
Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

It baffles me that people still think AAA ports are what determines the success/failure of Nintendo platforms.

Ignoring AAA ports then.

Will Nintendo really keep on supporting the Switch long term? Or will they move on to their next console after 4.5 years?

I'm not sure how that's relevant to my post.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Intrinsic on 15 December 2018
Agente42 said:

Nintendoom again? Each generation has appropriate rules. The new generation has begun and the Switch already has more than 20 million ahead of Sony and Microsoft. We need know better about the new Sony and Microsoft consoles.

This is not nintend doom. And its unfortunate that if spoken against the viability f the platform, no matter how constructive it wuold be taken as such. I have said before I expect the switch t do well. I expect it to do at least 60M. Thats not doom when that puts it along their best selling consoles.

We already know exactly what the next sony/ms consoles will bring to the table. Its the same thing they have done for the last 4 generations. Same way we know nintendo no longer competes in using that same business model.

You guys have t make up your minds abut the NS, so now you are saying its a 9th gen console and as such already 20M ahead or is it a very late 8th gen console. I was of the impression it was n 8th gen console. 

zorg1000 said:

Right now it is positioned as a home console that can be taken on the go since it costs a similar amount and can handle a decent amount of PS4/XBO games. But what about 3 years from now?

Will it still be marketed that way or will they adapt? Will it have a couple price cuts and revisions and start to be positioned more as a handheld that can hook up to a TV?

Will a hypothetical $199 Switch Mini really be affected by $399-499 home consoles? Were GB/GBA/DS/3DS affected negatively by the far stronger and more expensive home consoles from Sega/Sony/Microsoft?

You question whether or not Switch can reach 80 million but seem to ignore that 3/4 of their handhelds accomplished that while the 4th will only end up a few million short of that mark.

And you hit the nail on the head. Portable home console versus dockable portable console. 

I see it as a jack f all and master of non. Which ultimately I feel will affect it. As a home console, the time is coming that the games people play at home simply will not run on it. And all that will be had are nintendo games. But how may nintendo home consoles have ever sold more than 50M riding primarily on nintendo games? 

As a handheld.... look at the 3DS. There is a reason nintendo sought out to do more with the NS than just make  handheld. They were smart enough to see that in the present day and age its near impossible to be just a handheld device when any $50 7 inch tablet running android can not just do more and more appeal than your hand held. The rise of cheap tablets and super basic games n the app store has pretty much sucked out that super casual crowd nintendo sold their handhelds to primarily.

I guess we will see where it goes.

flashfire926 said:

Yes, the first party games alone can carry this to 80 million. You think ports of Skyrim and Fifa is whats selling the switch? You're mistaken.

Lets be honest here then....... how many nintendo consles (that aren't handhelds) has sold more than up to r more than 80M?

One.

And that one wasn't selling for "the games" it was selling simply for what it was; motion controls and some sort of cultural shift. Evident in what happened with the WiiU when a nintendo home console was asked to sell for nothing but the games.

But lets look at the handhelds.... As i have already explained, the world we live in today is very different from the world where those handhelds sold upwards of 70M. Again evident by what happened with the 3ds.

So yes..... I don't think 3rd party games sell nintendo hardware. And thats my point. I d not believe that nintendo IPs alone will take the console to 80M. Because it never has. Nintendo platforms always sell because they create a market and claim it for themselves. Thats always been their way. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Everytime they have tried competing in the same market with anyone else (or one they didnt pretty much create)they have lost. 

So the real question is that is this hybrid console thin that new market? And how big is it? This is why its hard making comparisons of nintendo platforms and how well they did in the past; they all usually bring something different to the table. But we can compare form factors though. There are really only like 15 to 20M die hard nintendo fans out there. People that will buy a nintendo platform no matter what. Probably a lot less really. Going off the performance of the WiiU. So the NS will sell not because of nintendo games (people just end up buying those after they have bought into whatever new form factor nintendo is pushing) but rather sell on the novelty of its hybrid nature. 

And does anyone here (myself included) really know how big a market that is? 

zorg1000 said:

It baffles me that people still think AAA ports are what determines the success/failure of Nintendo platforms

No... thats not what I a saying at all.