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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

Miyamotoo on 14 December 2018
globalisateur said:
Miyamotoo said:

Yeah, off course, it sold 75% better compared to last year without any price cut offcourse its biggest winner. Despite PS4/XB4 are 5 years old consoles they are doing great hole year (I mean PS4 just last month has much stronger month than it did last year), and both this year had great deals for Black Friday and huge game launch.

It was expected that Switch will do around 1.3m, but that doesnt make numbers that Switch done less impressive.

It had impressive deals this year. The mario Kart $299  + $50 Gift cards deal. That's like a $100 price cut.

$299 Mario Kart bundle was good deal, it want impressive, price cut to $199 with one game would be impresive like PS4 that with game that was one month old. $299 is not real price cut its a bundle with one game availible at same $299 price, $50 gift card was just for one retailer (and even that you needed to spend $300 in any case) for instance on Amazon you didn't had that deal, $299 with one game (even $249) is not same thing like $199 with one game.



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Intrinsic on 14 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
Megiddo said:

Hah wow. I was way off. Benji was right on the mark.

XBO with a ludicrously good November being able to stay basically flat from the 1X release month while having less aggressive Black Friday sales. Switch had a phenomenal November and PS4 was indeed extremely limited by supply and had a lower supply than last year.

Crazy how close all 3 systems are.

For Xbox One I'm thinking the S model is likely down YoY, like you said less aggressive deals, while the X model is likely up YoY due to more stock and deals unlike last year.

But the XB1s had been at $199 not only longer than the PS4 but even right now. MS always goes hard around this time of the year.

What I am taking frm this is just how well the PS4/XB1 can still sell if the price is at $199.

Dare I say if sony drops the price officially to $199 globally around january 2019 and further drops it by $50 around november next year it could actually go on to have its best year ever.



Kerotan on 14 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
Kerotan said:
Congrats ps4!!!! The 5 year old console does it again. Serious stock issues too so if they sort that out next year for their $199 deal they can do similar if not bigger.

What great news to wake up to. Another November in the bag.

And it beat the ps3 LTD already. It's going to end up way ahead when all is said and done. What a great milestone to hit so early.

The PS4 doesn't have stock issues per say. This has obviously been a strategic move by sony. They obviously don't care much for selling more consoles if it means they bleed out revenue. They have pretty much done the exact same thing 3 years in a row now. Like they are just doing enough.

They are steadily going to 100M and making as much money from the platform as possible. I doubt next year sales will be this good when news of the PS5 is in full swing.

I meant stock issues for the $199 version. But yeah I agree with you on their dtetegy. It's just so impressive. They are putting profits first yet they can still win November. Sony are in a good place. 



Intrinsic on 14 December 2018
Miyamotoo said:
globalisateur said:

It had impressive deals this year. The mario Kart $299  + $50 Gift cards deal. That's like a $100 price cut.

$299 Mario Kart bundle was good deal, it want impressive, price cut to $199 with one game would be impresive like PS4 that with game that was one month old. $299 is not real price cut its a bundle with one game availible at same $299 price, $50 gift card was just for one retailer (and even that you needed to spend $300 in any case) for instance on Amazon you didn't had that deal, $299 with one game (even $249) is not same thing like $199 with one game.

Again......

5yr old console.

Already with almost 30M install base in the region. 

At this stage of its life it literally needs deals like those to compete. It can't sell on the novelty of being the hot item anymore. Its 5yrs old. It can only sell based its value proposition right now.

You keep talking about deals and what not but ignoring the most important details. Keep in mind that the PS4 sold 1.5M in its second november and at $399 with the kinda "deals' the NS is enjoying now. 

To put things in perspective..... by the Wii's (last console to track like this) 5th year its sales had tanked.  



thismeintiel on 14 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
thismeintiel said:

I don't know about that. Last year Switch had the huge sales from Cyber Monday to boost its sales by a lot.  This year CM was included in Nov.  I see it doing 1.4M-1.6M.  PS4 will probably be around 1M, unless Sony does some kind of deal for Dec. I think Sony will keep the year, but just barely.

Looks like they put out just enough to win the month by a comfortable margin. I wonder if this has to do with focusing on profit, or they are scaling PS4 production down slightly. They originally only predicted 17M (or was it 16M?) shipped this FY.  They had to up it to 17.5M recently, and may actually end up with 18M shipped.

She had a good run. Next year will probably be her last.

I think some of you are overestimating Cyber Monday being in the November tracking period when it comes to Switch, I dont think it's going to make a huge difference.

I think you may be underestimating it.  CM is a big deal. If I remember correctly, last year it rivaled BF.  More importantly, the Switch actually had deals this year, effectively making it $199-$249, depending on where you went. This will shift a lot of buyers to that 5 day shopping period.



 

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takoyaki7 on 14 December 2018

It increased by 23.7% from the previous year. Applying that number would be Q3 nearly 9 million. But considering that there is also Smash in December ... 


 

Shipment prediction

Calculate every quarter 164“-231%

October & November

WORLD total 3.50M-4.94million

26.36-27.80M

 

Last year Oct.&Nov.

NPD             290k   770k

FAMITSU  307,138  372,619

Total 1,739,757

WORLD total 2.83M-3.99M

 

NS sales US+JPiNPD+Famitsuj 

Q4@1.43million@Total

Q1@1.15million@2.58million

Q2@1.47million@4.05million

Q3@4.24million@8.29million 

Q4@1.48m@@@  9.77m

Q1@1.14m@@@  10.92m

Q2  1.38m              12.3m

Oct +Nov 2.14m

2,147,128

 

NS  shipped

Q4@2.74million@Total             191%

Q1@1.96million@4.70million   170%

Q2@2.93million@7.63million   199%

Q3@7.24M@@@14.86M            170%

Q4@2.93M@@@17.79M             197%

Q1@1.88M@@@ 19.67M              164.9%

Q2 3.19M               22.86M             231%

 

Q4 191-197%

Q1  164.9-170%

Q2  199-231%

 

Q3  170%

Last edited by takoyaki7 - on 14 December 2018

Train wreck on 14 December 2018

Xbox One S Bundle Deals (going on as of 12/14)

$199 Xbox One S

Xbox One S 1TB Fortnite Bundle — $199 (list price $300)
Xbox One S 1TB Forza Horizon 4 Bundle — $199 (list price $300)
Xbox One S 1TB Minecraft Adventure Bundle — $199.99 (list price $300)
Xbox One S 1TB NBA 2K19 Bundle — $199 (list price $300)
Xbox One S 1TB Playerunknown's Battlegrounds Bundle — $199.99 (list price $300)

$219 Xbox One S

Xbox One S 1TB Battlefield V Bundle — $219.99 (list price $300)
Xbox One S 1TB Minecraft Creators Bundle — $219 (list price $299)


Xbox One X Bundle Deals

$399 Xbox One X

Xbox One X Fallout 76 1TB Console — $399 (list price $500)
Xbox One X 1TB NBA 2K19 Bundle — $399 (list price $499)
Xbox One X 1TB PUBG Console — $399.99 (list price $450)
Xbox One X 1TB Console — $399.99 (list price $500)

$449 Xbox One X

Xbox One X 1TB Forza Horizon 4 Bundle + Gears of War 4 — $449 (list price $499)
Xbox One X 1TB Gold Rush Special Edition Battlefield V Bundle + Gears of War 4 — $449 (list price $499)
Xbox One X Robot White Fallout 76 Special Edition Console + Gears of War 4 — $449 (list price $499)


Sony (and Nintendo) can't compete again bundles like these. Thats why they generate so many sales this time of year.



zorg1000 on 14 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

For Xbox One I'm thinking the S model is likely down YoY, like you said less aggressive deals, while the X model is likely up YoY due to more stock and deals unlike last year.

But the XB1s had been at $199 not only longer than the PS4 but even right now. MS always goes hard around this time of the year.

What I am taking frm this is just how well the PS4/XB1 can still sell if the price is at $199.

Dare I say if sony drops the price officially to $199 globally around january 2019 and further drops it by $50 around november next year it could actually go on to have its best year ever.

I'm not sure how that goes against what I said.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 14 December 2018
thismeintiel said:
zorg1000 said:

I think some of you are overestimating Cyber Monday being in the November tracking period when it comes to Switch, I dont think it's going to make a huge difference.

I think you may be underestimating it.  CM is a big deal. If I remember correctly, last year it rivaled BF.  More importantly, the Switch actually had deals this year, effectively making it $199-$249, depending on where you went. This will shift a lot of buyers to that 5 day shopping period.

The only deals I recall were a $50 gift card at Gamestop or a $35 eShop card at Walmart



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Miyamotoo on 14 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
Miyamotoo said:

$299 Mario Kart bundle was good deal, it want impressive, price cut to $199 with one game would be impresive like PS4 that with game that was one month old. $299 is not real price cut its a bundle with one game availible at same $299 price, $50 gift card was just for one retailer (and even that you needed to spend $300 in any case) for instance on Amazon you didn't had that deal, $299 with one game (even $249) is not same thing like $199 with one game.

Again......

5yr old console.

Already with almost 30M install base in the region. 

At this stage of its life it literally needs deals like those to compete. It can't sell on the novelty of being the hot item anymore. Its 5yrs old. It can only sell based its value proposition right now.

You keep talking about deals and what not but ignoring the most important details. Keep in mind that the PS4 sold 1.5M in its second november and at $399 with the kinda "deals' the NS is enjoying now. 

To put things in perspective..... by the Wii's (last console to track like this) 5th year its sales had tanked.  

No you missing point of discussion, point was about deals, PS4 official price point is $299, so going from $299 without game to $199 with one brand new game is far better deal than going from $299 without game to $299 with one game thats 1.5 years old game and port.

 

Talking about price cuts, PS4 actually had price cut in its second October to $350 (so less than 2 years on market), and in November of that year was selling for $350 with one game, Switch still has launch price point.

https://www.ign.com/articles/2015/10/08/ps4-price-drop-announced-for-north-america